【作者】 修丽娜；

【导师】 刘湘南；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 地图制图学与地理信息工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 地理信息系统(GIS)因其强大的空间数据管理和分析功能成为土地生态安全评价的重要技术方法。但目前基于GIS的土地生态安全评价缺乏对多种决策风险的考虑,不能体现不同准则之间的相对重要程度,不能将决策者的偏好或者决策态度体现出来,无法将待评价地块的评价结果进行排序,缺乏灵活性,不利于全面分析多种决策策略。本文提出的有序加权平均(ordered weighted averaged,OWA)模型与GIS集成进行土地生态安全多准则评价方法,弥补了传统的基于GIS的土地生态安全评价在面临复杂空间问题多准则决策支持方面的不足,使得评价结果更加多样、灵活和实用,能体现出决策者的不同偏好。OWA方法是一种可以根据决策风险系数任意选择指标之间重要程度的决策方法,OWA多准则聚合经过次序权重和准则权重两个阶段加权后,通过改变决策风险系数,可以产生广泛的决策方案。本文采用OWA多准则决策方法与GIS集成进行土地生态安全评价研究,主要研究内容:(1)分析了研究区土地资源利用现状和土地生态环境存在的问题;(2)从土地自然生态安全、土地经济生态安全和土地社会生态安全三个层次,选取影响土地生态安全的19个评价指标(准则),建立了密云土地生态安全评价指标体系;(3)根据密云县遥感影像和统计年鉴以及相关文献获取评价指标数据,在ArcGIS 9.2的支持下,对各评价指标数据进行无量纲化、分级赋值和矢量化处理;(4)将ArcGIS 9.2中19项评价指标的矢量化数据转换为IDRISI 2.0中的栅格数据,采用层次分析法(AHP)进行各指标的准则权重的计算,选用模糊量化方法计算各指标的次序权重,利用IDRISI 2.0中的多准则评价模块(MCE)中的OWA功能,将19项指标的栅格图层、对应的准则权重和次序权重进行集成,实现了对密云土地生态安全的评价,对不同决策风险时的评价结果进行分析,并与传统GIS叠加分析方法对比研究;(5)将不同决策风险下的土地生态安全评价结果作为旅游用地选址的一个影响因素,选取交通、旅游景点、地质灾害等旅游用地选址的影响因素,将《北京市限建区规划(2006年-2020年)》中规定的禁建区作为限制因素,通过计算各影响因素的准则权重和次序权重,采用OWA-GIS方法,从土地生态安全的角度进行旅游用地的选址决策研究。结果表明:(1)基于OWA-GIS的土地生态安全评价方法通过对各评价指标的准则权重和次序权重的计算,考虑了不同决策的风险策略(决策风险系数α分别取0.0001,0.1,0.5,1,2,10,1000),提出了7种决策方案。与传统的GIS叠加分析方法相比,更好地体现了决策者的偏好信息,使决策者可以在“只要一个指标满足要求即可”至“所有指标都满足要求”7种决策方案之间进行选择,有利于全面分析多种决策策略,较好的解决了复杂空间问题多准则决策支持问题,评价结果更加多样、灵活。从7种决策方案来看,石城镇、溪翁庄镇和穆家峪镇的土地生态安全状况较好。(2)提出了从土地生态安全角度进行旅游用地选址的OWA-GIS方法,体现了决策者对各种影响因素的考虑,得出的决策方案侧重点各不相同。最适宜旅游开发的地区主要分布于冯家峪镇的北部和南部地区、密云水库南部的溪翁庄镇和穆家峪镇。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to the powerful spatial data management and spatial analysis capability, Geographic Information System (GIS) has become an important technological method for assessing land ecological security. However, the current land ecological security assessment method based on GIS had some deficiencies, which was lack of consideration of varieties of decision-making. The assessment method specifically could not reflect the relative importance under different criteria, the preference and attitude of decision makers, and sort the results of plot to-be-evaluated. The assessment method lacked flexibility; therefore it was not conducive to analyze various decision strategies comprehensively. In this paper, the proposed OWA (ordered weighted averaged) model integrated with GIS would be used in the multi-criteria land ecological security assessment. It made up for the complex spatial multi-criteria decision-making deficiencies when using the traditional GIS-based land ecological security assessment, made the evaluation results more diverse, flexible and practical, and reflected the different preferences of decision makers.OWA is a decision-making method, which can arbitrarily choose the importance among different indices according to the decision-risk coefficients. OWA multi-criteria aggregation can produce a wide range of decision-making strategies after adjusting the order-weight and criterion-weight, and then changing the decision-making risk coefficient. In this paper, OWA multi-criteria decision making methods integrated with GIS are adopted for the land ecological security assessment, the main contents summarized as follows: (1) analyzing the land use situation and the problems of land ecological environment in the study area; (2) selecting 19 indices (criteria) which affect the land ecological security from the three levels of land ecological security, land economic and social security, and land ecological security; then establishing the Miyun evaluation index system of land ecological security ; (3) processing data normalization, rating assignment and vector under the support of ArcGIS 9.2 on the basis of remote sensing image, statistical data and other literature of Miyun, Beijin; (4) converting the ArcGIS 9.2 19 evaluation indices vector data into the IDRISI 2.0 grid data, calculating the criterion-weights of each index using the analytic hierarchy (AHP), choosing fuzzy quantified methods to calculate the order–weights of each index, integrating the grid layer of 19 indices, corresponding criterion-weights and order-weights by the OWA function of the multi-criteria evaluation module (MCE) in IDRISI 2.0, evaluating the land ecological security of Miyun, Beijin, analyzing the results of the evaluation under different risk decisions, and comparing the new method with the traditional GIS overlay analysis method; (5) serving the result of the land ecological security assessment under different risk decisions as a factor of the tourism location selection, choosing transportation, tourist attractions, geological disasters as the tourism location selection factors and the banning construction area in“limit built area planning in Beijing (2006-2020)”as limiting factor, and then studying the land used for tourism location selecting decisions from the perspective of land ecological security by OWA - GIS method to calculate the criterion-weights, order-weights of affecting factors.The results indicated that: (1) The land ecological security assessment method based on OWA-GIS took into account the different risk decision strategies (decision risk factors was 0.0001, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 2, 10, 1000) and put forward seven decision strategies after calculating each evaluation criterion-weights and the order-weights. Comparing with traditional GIS overlay analysis, the OWA-GIS method could reflect the decision maker’s preference better, and also helped the decision maker choose one of 7 strategies from“only an index meets the requirements”to“all of the indices meet the requirements”. Therefore, it was conducive to analyze a variety of decision strategies comprehensively, solve the complex problem of spatial multi-criteria decision support conveniently, and make the evaluation results more diverse and flexible. From the seven decision strategies, the land ecological security of Shicheng town, Chiwengzhuang town, Mojiayu town were in good condition. (2)The OWA-GIS tourism location selection method was proposed from the perspective of the land ecological security, which reflected the considerations of various factors, and the focus of each strategy varied correspondingly. In this paper, the best areas for tourism development mainly concentrated in the northern and southern regions of Fengjiayu town, and Chiwengzhuang town and Mojiayu town in the south of the Miyun Reservoir.更多还原