【作者】 马慧敏；

【导师】 杨青；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文围绕“基于免疫理论的非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统”这一核心问题,按“非常规突发事件应急管理免疫系统理论框架的构建——非常规突发事件应急管理免疫系统模型的提出——系统模型的仿真实现——应急管理主动免疫系统能力综合评价”的主线来展开研究工作,力求丰富完善应急管理理论,指导非常规突发事件预防与应对实践。主体内容包括五个部分：(1)非常规突发事件应急管理的理论基础在吸取前人研究成果的基础上,归纳总结了应急管理、生物免疫理论和复杂科学理论,指出复杂科学理论与方法、生物免疫理论对于应急管理研究的借鉴意义,并确定其为解决非常规突发事件应急管理问题拟采用的基本原理、方法。(2)非常规突发事件发生演化机理及其预警管理界定了非常规突发事件的定义、特征、类型,分析了非常规突发事件的发生机理和周期演化机理,重点研究了目前非常规突发事件预警管理实践中存在的主要制约性因素,指出非常规突发事件预警管理中亟需解决的难点是如何提高预警的效率,具体表现为快速识别非常规突发事件风险和相应产生适用的应急预案。(3)非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统的构建基于生物免疫理论应用于非常规突发事件应急管理的意义,界定了应急管理主动免疫和主动免疫系统的概念和特征,并构建了非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统的基本框架,重点分析了非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统构建的原则、主动免疫系统的要素、结构、功能和运行机制。(4)非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统模型及其模拟仿真探讨了非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统模型,重点分析了风险识别器的生成与优化,应急预案的生成与进化和应急预案记忆库的更新等问题,并采用SARS实证数据进行了系统模型的模拟仿真。(5)非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统能力综合评价基于非常规突发事件应急管理主动免疫系统能力综合评价相应的研究成果,构建了主动免疫系统能力综合评价指标体系,提出了多层次模糊综合评价模型,并针对我国非常规突发事件应急管理进行了实证分析。本文是国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目“基于免疫学的非常规突发事件应急管理主动防御多智能系统”(批准号：91024020)的子课题研究成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Surrounding the core issue on active immune system of abnormal emergency management based on immunology theory, this dissertation has conducted researches along such a technical route as construction of theoretical framework of active immune system of abnormal emergency management→proposal of active immune system model of abnormal emergency management→simulation of system model→comprehensive assessment on capability of active immune system of abnormal emergency management. The purpose of this dissertation is to enrich and improve emergency management theory to guide the abnormal emergency prevention and response. The text is composed of five main parts.(1) Theoretic foundamentals of abnormal emergency management. Based on previous research results, the author summaries the theories of emergency management, complex systems and immunology; identifies the significances of these theories to make research on emergency management; and adopts them as basic theories and procedures for the research on abnormal emergency management.(2) Occurrence and evolution mechanism of abnormal emergency and its early-warming management. The definitions, features, and classifications of abnormal emergency are firstly defined. Then the occurrence and evolution mechanism of abnormal emergency are analyzed. Furthermore, the main restricting factors in China’s abnormal emergency early-warning management are put on emphasis. Based on which the most critical issue in abnormal early-warning management is to improve the efficiency of early-warning management, which could be solved by quick recognition of risks of abnormal emergency and appropriate generation of emergency preplan.(3) Construction of active immune system of abnormal emergency management. The definitions and features of active immune and active immune system of emergency management are described, based on the significances of application of biological immune theory to abnormal emergency management. The basic framework of active immune system of abnormal emergency management is established. The emphasis has been put on the construction principles, elements, structure, functions, and operation mechanism of active immune system of abnormal emergency management.(4) Active immune system model of abnormal emergency management and its simulation. The active immune system model of abnormal emergency management is explored. The critical issues on generation and optimization of risk recognizer, generation and evolution of emergency preplan, and renovation of emergency preplan memory are analyzed. Besides, the author makes analog simulation of the system model with the empirical data of SARS.(5) Comprehensive assessment on capability of active immune system of abnormal emergency management. Based on the relevant researches on comprehensive capability assessment of active immune system of abnormal emergency management, an active immune system capability assessment indicator system for China is put forth and a multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is developed. Ultimately, an empirical analysis on abnormal emergency management in China is conducted.This dissertation is sub-project result of Multi-Agent Active Defense System of Abnormal Emergency Management Based on Immunology (Grant No.91024020), which is one of the major research cultivation projects of National Natural Science Foundation in China.更多还原