【作者】 李艳红；

【导师】 袁振洲；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 交通运输是国民经济发展的命脉,发展高效协调的综合运输体系,是交通运输发展的必然趋势。综合运输通道是一个国家或区域内交通运输系统的重要组成形式,合理规划和建设各具特色的综合运输通道是发展综合运输体系的根本所在。目前,我国正处于综合运输通道大发展时期,但其理论的研究还较薄弱,尚未形成完整的理论体系,难以指导通道的规划和建设,所以系统地认识综合运输通道,研究其基础理论、客运需求、需求及供给层次、客运结构静态及动态发展趋势等一系列重大问题,建立相应的研究框架和理论体系,对综合运输通道的规划和建设具有重要的理论及实践指导意义。论文首先对综合运输通道客运结构优化相关概念进行了辨析,对综合运输通道的分类与结构进行了研究,描述了串联、并联和混联三种结构的特点；剖析了综合运输通道客运结构演化的影响因素及机理；分析了综合运输通道影响区边界的界定方法,基于GIS方法,对京沪通道吸引范围进行了实证性研究。其次,利用系统动力学因果分析方法对综合运输通道客运需求影响因素及产生机理进行了刻画；重点分析了综合运输通道客运需求的静态特征、动态特征、质量需求特征、方式需求个性化特征等；对综合运输通道内的客运需求与供给进行了层次结构分析,并利用出行距离-时间价值双参数结合分类方法对综合运输通道内客运需求进行了分类,建立了模糊机会约束规划模型,对综合运输通道内旅客出行意愿进行了模型与理论上的探讨。再次,建立了综合运输通道客运需求总量预测的组合模型与OD需求预测的改进重力模型,预测了京沪通道客运需求。然后,对综合运输通道客运结构优化的目标和原则进行了描述；从静态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构优化双层多目标规划模型,其中：上层问题体现综合运输通道对沿线经济的拉动作用、系统效率、输送能力、运营投资等目标,下层为基于旅客出行意愿的交通方式选择方法,响应函数采用平衡系数、通道饱和熵指标,分别反映综合运输通道客运需求与沿线经济的适应程度、与供给匹配程度；设计了粒子群优化算法,并提出了京沪通道客运结构合理发展优化措施。最后,基于马尔可夫随机过程,从动态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构演化模型,并对模型参数进行了标定,对京沪通道客运结构进行了预测,并对其发展趋势进行了分析论证。论文取得的主要成果包括：探讨了可操作性强且满足精度要求的综合运输通道影响区边界界定的GIS方法；重点分析了综合运输通道客运需求的静态特征、动态特征、质量需求特征、方式需求个性化特征,利用出行距离-时间价值双参数结合分类方法对综合运输通道内的客运需求及供给层次结构进行了研究,基于模糊机会约束规划理论对综合运输通道内旅客出行意愿进行了探讨；建立了综合运输通道客运需求总量预测的组合模型与OD需求预测的改进重力模型；从静态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构优化的双层多目标规划模型,并设计了求解该模型的粒子群算法；从动态层面,基于马尔可夫随机过程,预测了综合运输通道客运结构的演化趋势,形成了动静态相结合的综合运输通道客运结构优化理论,对综合运输通道客运系统建设及优化提供理论指导与技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Transportation is the lifeline of national economy, and the development of highly effective coordinated comprehensive transportation corridor is the inexorable trend of traffic and transportation. Comprehensive transportation corridor is an important composition form of a country or region’s transportation system, so rational planning and construction of comprehensive transportation corridor are the bases of developing comprehensive transportation system. At present, our country is in a period of great development of comprehensive transportation corridor, whereas the theoretical study is relatively weak, as there has not formed a complete theoretical system yet, which makes it difficult to guide the planning and construction of corridor. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to the planning and construction of comprehensive transportation corridors to have a systematic understanding of the comprehensive transportation corridor, to study important issues such as the basic theory, passenger demand, demand-supply levels, the static and dynamic development trends of passenger structure, etc., so as to establish its relevant research framework and theoretical system.Firstly, concepts that related to passenger structure optimization in comprehensive transportation corridor were analyzed, its classification and structure had been researched followingly, and the characteristics of three kinds of structure including series, parallel and compound connection had also been described. Factors that affect passenger structure and its evolution mechanism of comprehensive transportation corridor were analyzed. The method of determining affect scope was analyzed about comprehensive transportation corridor, and this GIS based method was conducted on Beijing-Shanghai corridor as to determine its affecting scope.Secondly,factors that influence passenger demand and its production mechanism have been characterized by making use of system dynamics in comprehensive transportation corridor.The static,dynamic,quality and personalization features of passenger demand in comprehensive transportation corridor have been focused on in succession.The hierarchical structure of passenger demand and supply within comprehensive transportation corridor was analysed by utilizing the combination of two parameters as trip distance and time value. At the end of this part, a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model was established to describe passenger’s favor in comprehensive transportation corridor.Thirdly, a combination model for total passenger demand forecasting and OD demand model based on improved gravity model of a comprehensive transportation corridor were establised in this section. And its application in Beijing-Shanghai corridor was also carried out successfully.Fourthly,objectives and principles of structural optimization as to comprehensive transportation corridor has been described.From static aspect, a multi-objective bilevel programming model was set up to optimize passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor.In this model,the economical pulling effcet,system efficiency,transmission capacity,operation and investment goals,etc. have been included in the upper objective. While the lower model was based on passengers’travel selection behavior. A balanced coefficient and saturation entropy indicator were introduced in the response function,which reflects the adaptation degree between passenger demand and economy along corridor,the matching level between passenger demand and supply individually.Particle swarm optimization algorithm was designed to solve this model.Rational measures about passenger structure development in Beijing-Shanghai corridor was proposed in the end.Finally, from dynamic point of view, the evolution model of passenger structure was established based on Markov process. Then parameters of this model were calibrated.After the application of this model in Beijing-Shanghai corridor’passenger structure prediction, the direction and trend of Beijing-Shanghai corridor’passenger structure development were analyzed and demonstrated.The following are the main achievements of this dissertation:(1) A GIS based method which is proper for determining influence area of comprehensive transportation corridor was discussed.(2) The static,dynamic,quality and personalization characteristics of passenger demand in comprehensive transportation corridor were focused on,and the combination of trip distance-time value parameters was adopted in the classification of hierarchy about passenger demand and supply in comprehensive transportation corridor.And also a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model was established to describe passenger’s favor in comprehensive transportation corridor.(3) A combination model for total passenger demand forecasting and OD demand model based on improved gravity model of a comprehensive transportation corridor were establised. (4) From static view,a multi-objective bi-level programming model was set up to optimize passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor. And particle swarm optimization algorithm was designed to solve this model.(5) While from dynamic aspect, an evolution model of passenger structure was established based on Markov process.更多还原