【作者】 石云龙；

【导师】 崔彬； 安海忠；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源管理工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 地震灾害是一种危及国家公共安全的自然灾害现象,它的突发性、灾害性、社会性及整个过程影响的长期性等特征要比洪水、飓风等灾害明显的多。我国地震活动频度高、强度大、分布广、震源浅、成灾率高。实施地震紧急救援,是有效减轻人员伤亡、防止灾害进一步扩大、迅速安定民心的关键。国内外多次地震现场紧急救援的情况表明,破坏性地震发生后,及时、高效、有序地进行生命救助,减少人员伤亡,是震后抢险救灾的首要任务。据有关资料表明,震后72小时内是救援被困人员的黄金时段。因此,重视和大力开展地震灾害现场生命搜索和救援理论和方法的研究,特别是在余震不断、次生灾害频发、各种社会关系处于混沌状态下,如何协调管理现场救援人员和自救人员,提高效率,救助更多的被困人员尤其显得重要和迫切。当前,地震紧急救援研究大多集中在高层组织管理和应急预案操作性等问题的思考上,用传统方法考虑了体系建设、组织规划等问题。针对地震紧急救援技术性研究也停留在救援专业技术、救援路径选择等方面。但是把复杂科学理论,特别是复杂适应系统理论同地震紧急救援结合到一起进行研究,并对复杂的地震紧急救援系统进行模拟仿真,国内外鲜见有此方面的研究。鉴于此,本文针对地震救援系统,从聚集、非线性、流和多样性四个特征及标识、内部模型和积木机制三个机制分析了其复杂适应性,说明了地震紧急救援系统就是一种复杂适应系统。在界定救援主体、被救援主体和环境的基础上,确定了救援主体的演化规则、行为规则,以及主体与环境的交互规则,构建了地震紧急救援复杂适应系统基本模型。采用基于多主体软件工具集和通用软件平台(Swarm),进行了模拟仿真,并将模拟结果与汶川地震实际救援情况比较,进行实证研究,具有一定的创新性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake disaster is one of nature disastrous phenomena that does harm to national public security, which is more destructive and disastrous than floods and hurricane with its accidental outburst, disastrous, social and lasting features. The earthquakes in China have some features of high frequency, high intensity, broad distribution, shallow epicenter, and high destruction. Emergent earthquake rescue is one of the keys to reduce human loss, which can prevent the disaster from developing. Many cases of emergent earthquake rescues in domestic and aboard showed that, the first task after destructive earthquake is to develop a timely, effective and efficient, orderly life rescue to reduce death rate. According to related sources, 72 hours after earthquakes is the golden time for rescue. Hence, the research on theories and methods of on-the-spot quake rescue should be paid a high attention, especially under the circumstance of continuous aftershock, frequent subsequent disasters and chaotic social situation. Therefore, it is essential and urgent to coordinate on-the-spot rescuer and self-saving personnel to enhance the efficiency and save more people in danger.Now, the research of emergent earthquake rescue focuses mainly on problems of top-level management and emergent scheme, which took system design and organizational planning into consideration. Some technical research of emergent earthquake rescue focuses on professional rescue techniques and route selection and so on. It is very rare to combine complex scientific theories, especially CAS with emergent earthquake rescue, and to make analog simulation on complex emergent earthquake rescue system. Thus, the paper analyzed the complex adaptation of the earthquake rescue system from four features—aggregation, nonlinearity, flow, and diversity, and from three systems—tagging, internal model, and building block, and explained that the earthquake rescue system is a kind of complex adaptation system. As to defining the rescuing subjects, the rescued subjects, and the environments, the paper found the evolving rules and behaving rules of the rescuing rules, and mutual rules of the subjects and the environments, and constructed basic model of complex adaptation system of earthquake emergent rescue. The paper made an analog emulation based on Swarm, and performed a case study comparing the emulation results with practical rescue condition in Wenchuan earthquake, which is initiative to some extent.更多还原