【作者】 刘文全；

【导师】 贾永刚；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文系统的评述了国内外关于海上溢油应急响应研究的现状,指出其中存在的一些问题,并详细的研究了溢油应急相关的研究方法和模型。针对渤海石油平台溢油应急响应的实际需求,结合课题其它组成部分的研究成果,利用GIS技术和决策支持技术开发了渤海石油平台溢油应急决策支持系统OSCOP-DSS,同时结合渤中26-2石油钻井平台的溢油仿真数据对系统进行了功能演示。本文研究的主要内容包括以下六部分：(1)本文通过对目前国内外海上溢油应急响应相关研究的总结,指出目前海上溢油应急工作存在的一些不足,基于地理信息系统(GIS)和决策支持系统(DSS),结合实际科研项目的研究成果和渤海的实际情况,设计了渤海石油平台溢油应急决策支持系统的总体架构和功能。(2)通过分析海上溢油应急清除与回收处理这一实际问题,结合专家系统的结构和特点,建立基于产生式规则知识为基础的溢油应急清除与回收策略决策模型。把人工智能的手段应用到溢油应急反应中,针对海上溢油应急清除与回收处理决策建立专家系统,深入研究了知识库的构建、推理机的实现和知识的获取等,重点放在了知识的类型及表示、知识的结构设计、推理机的实现等方面。(3)本文以系统科学为指导,把应用运输学、运筹学、地理信息系统等多学科结合起来,运用“模糊优化法”和“理想点法”研究了限制条件下的应急物资优化调运问题,提出了海上溢油应急资源优化调运模型。本模型包括单资源调运和多资源调运两种模式,每种模式又有基于“应急开始时间最短”和基于“系统稳定性最好”两个应急目标,为溢油应急人员提供辅助决策,提高溢油应急效率,降低物资调运成本。(4)海洋溢油事故对海洋生态环境造成极大的损害,本文针对溢油应急的实际需求,提出了海上溢油动态损害模型,对溢油产生的损害进行评估。综合目前在海洋溢油生态损害方面的研究成果,进行公式推导,建立了相应的灾害损失评估公式,实现了对海洋环境容量、海洋生态服务功能和天然渔业损失评估的功能。(5)本文利用层次分析法对海上石油平台溢油污染危害程度的判别进行研究,建立了海上石油平台溢油污染等级评估模型。筛选相应的溢油指标建立溢油污染危害递阶层次结构,确定了相应的目标层、准则层和方案层,并通过层次分析法确定各指标的隶属度,建立渤海石油平台溢油污染危害等级评估总排序表。最终把溢油污染危害划分为五个级别,每个级别对应一定的数值范围。通过模型运算得出的数值来判断所属的污染级别。(6)本文通过介绍GIS技术、DSS技术和SDSS技术发展和特点,指出了SDSS技术在溢油应急领域的应用优势,在此基础上,以Visual studio.NET为开发平台,SQL Server 2005后台数据库为基础,加上研发的四个决策支持模型,采用C#语言和ArcGIS Engine 9.2开发建立了渤海石油平台溢油应急决策支持系统OSCOP-DSS。文章对OSCOP-DSS的开发需求、设计目标和原则、系统框架、开发应用平台和数据库管理平台都做了详细的阐述,并在此基础上对OSCOP-DSS中六大模块的结构和功能的设计进行了详细的说明,最后通过渤中26-2平台的仿真溢油数据对OSCOP-DSS进行了主要功能模块的演示。论文的创新点包括以下三点：(1)基于渤海石油平台溢油应急的现状,首次针对石油平台溢油应急决策方面的具体问题进行了研究,在分析溢油应急实际需求的基础上,结合SDSS的体系结构,设计了适合渤海石油平台溢油应急的决策支持系统架构和功能。(2)研究实现了GIS和DSS有机融合,充分利用项目其它部分的研究成果,设计了“溢油应急清除与回收策略模型”、“应急物资优化调运模型”、“溢油污染动态损害模型”和“溢油污染等级评估模型”四个决策支持模型,对于渤海石油平台溢油灾害的防治具有重要的现实意义。(3)充分研究渤海石油平台溢油应急响应的实际需求,基于溢油应急决策支持系统的架构和功能,结合ArcGIS Engine9.2、Visual Studio.NET平台和SQL Server 2005数据库,自主研发了渤海石油平台溢油应急决策支持系统OSCOP-DSS。更多还原

【Abstract】 Previous international studies on the response to marine oil spill were systematically commentated in this paper in which some existed problems were pointed out and numbers of related methods and models were detailed introduced. Furthermore, the decision support system for oil spill emergency on offshore platform in Bohai named OSCOP-DSS was developed integrating the two techniques of GIS and Decision Support and adopting the achievements of other subordinate subjects in connection with the practical demand of the response to oil spill emergency on offshore platform of Bohai. Additionally, the functions of this system were demonstrated with the emulated data of the oil drilling platform of Bozhong 26-2.The main content of this study includes six parts as follows:(1) Summarized the international studies of current conditions on the response to oil spill emergency on offshore platform and indicated their limitations, and designed the general framework and functional requirement of the decision support system for oil emergency in offshore platform of Bohai, which constructed according to the achievements of scientific research projects in progress and the physical circumstances of Bohai, based on the combination techniques both of Geographical Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS).(2) Constructed the Strategy Decision Model for the removal and recycling of spilled oil in offshore on basis of production knowledge rule combining the structure and characteristics of expert system through the practical problem analysis of the removal and recycling of spilled oil. Particularly, introducing the artificial intelligence mean into the response to oil spill emergency, constructed the expert system directing towards the process decision on removal and recycling of spilled oil offshore, further studied the construction of knowledge base, realization of processor, information acquisition and so on, and put the emphases on the aspects such as types and expression of knowledge, structure design of knowledge, the realization of processor.(3) Studied the optimizing allocateandtransport of emergency supplies in limited conditions using Fuzzy Optimization Method and Ideal Point Method and proposed the optimizing allocateandtransport model of emergency supplies for offshore oil spill, following the guidance of system science and combining number of subjects such as applied transportation science, operational science, and geographical information system. This applied model was characterized by two patterns of single resource transport and multi resource transport both of which had the two emergency objects of the shortest beginning time for emergency and the best system stability, which could provide the aid decisions for emergency personnel, improve the emergency efficiency, and reduce the costs of supply allocateandtransport.(4) Put forward the dynamic damage model for the offshore oil spill against the practical needs for the oil spill emergency due to the enormous damage of the marine oil spill accidents to the marine ecology environment, which was mainly on assessing the damage caused by oil spill. Comprehending the current achievements on the ecology damage of marine oil spill, the corresponding disaster loss evaluation formulas were constructed to realize the functions of loss evaluations on marine environment capability, marine ecology service and natural fishing.(5) Established the pollution level assessment model for oil spill on offshore platforms through the application of analytic hierarchy process into the discrimination on the contamination degree of offshore oil spill. In detail, the corresponding oil spill parameters were selected to construct the risk hierarchical structure of oil spill pollutions which determined the corresponding object layer, criterion layer and program layer, and defined the membership grade of each parameter, finally, set up the total sort table of risk level assessment for the oil spill contamination on oil platform of Bohai. In this paper, five levels were classified for the pollution risk of oil spill and each level corresponded to a certain numerical range, and the pollution level was determined through the corresponding value calculated by the model.(6) Pointed out the advantage of the application of SDSS technique in the field of oil spill emergency by comparing the development and characteristics of the techniques of GIS, DSS and SDSS, and established the decision support system of oil spill emergency on oil platform of Bohai named OSCOP-DSS adopting C# language and ArcGIS Engine 9.2 with Visual studio.NET as the platform and the MSSOL Server of SOL Server 2005 as the basis, together with the research and development achievements of four decision-support models. In addition, the development requirement, design object and principle, system framework, development application platform and database management platform of the OSCOP-DSS were detailed described in this paper, along with the structure and function design of the six main modules of OSCOP-DSS. Finally, the functions of this system were demonstrated with the emulated data of the oil drilling platform of Bozhong 26-2.Three innovation points can be found in this paper, which was illustrated below:(1) Basing on the current situation of oil spill emergency on oil platform in Bohai, first designed the appropriate decision support system framework and functions for oil spill emergency on the Bohai oil platform combining with the system structure of SDSS, countering the detailed problems in the decision support system of oil spill emergency on oil platform and at the basis of analysis of practical requirements in oil spill emergency response.(2) Realized the organic integration between GIS and DSS, and designed four decision support models of Spilled Oil Removal and Recycling Strategy Model, Emergency Supplies Optimizing Allocateandtransport Model, Spilled Oil pollution Dynamic Risk Model, and Spilled Oil Pollution Level Assessment Model, which was of great practical significance to the disaster prevention and control of oil spill on Bohai oil platform.(3) Independently developed the decision support system of oil spill on Bohai oil platform named OSCOP-DSS basing on the framework and functions of oil spill emergency decision support system combined with ArcGIS Engine9.2, Visual Studio.NET platform and SQL Server 2005 database after sufficiently understood the practical requirements of the response to oil spill emergency on Bohai oil platform.更多还原