【作者】 李华文；

【导师】 吕靖；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 船舶交通管理系统经济社会影响评价研究是船舶交通管理系统开发、改进、实施决策急需解决的课题,是提高船舶交通管理系统投资决策水平、经济社会效益,保持船舶交通管理系统持续性发展的关键。文章以船舶交通管理系统为研究对象,对船舶交通管理系统经济社会影响评价内容、评价准则、评价指标体系及评价方法等方面进行了比较全面、深入的探索和研究。文章在对船舶交通管理系统结构及其相关功能进行概述的基础上,论述了船舶交通管理系统经济社会影响评价的必要性及其主要内容,建立了船舶交通管理系统经济社会影响评价框架；根据安全经济学、投入产出理论、增长速度理论,对船舶交通管理系统的经济影响进行了系统的论述,开创性地将船舶交通管理系统的经济影响因素划分为投入成本、直接经济贡献、对区域经济影响和拉动效应(间接经济贡献)三部分,并结合生产函数法、专家咨询等多种方法测算出广州船舶交通管理系统的直接经济贡献和间接经济贡献；系统地论述了成本效益分析法理论以及船舶交通管理系统成本费用的组成,根据获取的第一手数据资料对广州船舶交通管理系统进行了费用效益实证分析,得出了广州船舶交通管理系统的评价结论；确立了船舶交通管理系统经济社会影响综合评价指标体系和评价指标,在方法研究的基础上,采用数据包络分析和模糊综合评价法,对广州船舶交通管理系统的经济社会效益进行了理论和实证分析,得出了广州船舶交通管理系统的综合评价结论；论文还根据船舶交通管理系统的投入产出效益关系,对船舶交通管理系统最佳规模进行了演绎分析,其结论表明在VTS影子规费总收入平稳增长,同时事故发生率平稳下降的情况下,船舶交通管理系统处于最佳规模,最有利于区域经济社会的持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study on assessing the economic and social impact for Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) is urgently needed for the development, improvement and decision making of VTS, which is crucial to improve the investment decision making ability, the project’s economic and social effect, and to keep its sustainable development. This paper makes a comparatively comprehensive and in-depth exploration and research on the evaluation contents, evaluation principle, evaluation indices system, and evaluation methods on the economic and social impact of VTS, with VTS as research object.On the basis of the brief introduction to the structure and its related functions of VTS, this paper elaborates the need to assess the economic and social impact for Vessel Traffic Service and its main contents. The framework to assess the economic and social impact for Vessel Traffic Service is established. According to safety economics, input-output theory and growth speed theory, the economic impact of VTS is discussed in detail. The economic impact of VTS is creatively classified as 3 parts including input costs, direct economic benefits and influence and drawing effect to regional economics (indirect economic benefits). The direct economic benefits and the indirect economic benefits of Guangzhou VTS are calculated, through production function and Delphi method etc. The paper elaborates the cost benefits analysis theory and the costs of VTS, realizes the costs benefits demonstration analysis to Guangzhou VTS on the first hand data, and finally reaches the evaluation results of Guangzhou VTS. The comprehensive evaluation system and indices to assess the economic and social impact for VTS is built up. This paper analyses the economic and social impact for Guangzhou VTS theoretically and practically, and obtains the comprehensive evaluation result of Guangzhou VTS, by using DEA and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, on the basis of methods research. According to the input-input relation of VTS, this paper also deduces the best scale of VTS. The results of deduction show that VTS is in the best scale, which is helpful to the continuous development of regional economic society, when the shadow revenue increases steadily and accidents rates decrease steadily.更多还原