【作者】 赵金宪；

【导师】 金鸿章；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 控制理论与控制工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着系统的功能越来越完善,结构越来越复杂,任何一个系统都是整个社会大系统下的一个子系统,其运行情况的好坏也必将对整个社会造成一定的影响,子系统的脆性一旦被激发,导致系统崩溃,造成巨大的影响和损失。复杂系统的脆性是指系统中某个子系统在受到干扰的作用而发生崩溃,引起了复杂系统内部崩溃的连锁反应,从而导致了整个系统的崩溃。分析复杂系统脆性激发的原因、产生的机理、对脆性源的辨识与评价、脆性激发所需的条件等等与脆性有关的问题是认识和控制复杂系统的必要手段。本文以复杂系统为研究对象,在复杂系统的非线性、突现性、层次性、关联性、动态性等基本特征的基础上,将脆弱性作为复杂系统的又一特征进行分析与研究。复杂系统的脆性具体表现为系统中某个子系统在外界干扰的影响下突然崩溃,进而影响到与之关联的其他子系统的崩溃,当复杂系统中的若干关键子系统发生崩溃后,整个复杂系统将进入到无序状态,无法完成其正常功能,即整个系统的崩溃。本文在脆性理论的基础上,完善复杂系统脆性模型的建模理论,构建了复杂系统脆性树模型,定义了脆性结构重要度、脆性概率重要度和脆性关键重要度,分别从脆性模型的结构、脆性因素发生概率对系统崩溃概率的影响和脆性因素发生概率变化率对系统崩溃概率变化率的影响三个方面讨论了复杂系统脆性因素在系统崩溃过程中的作用,并以东海煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故系统为例进行了定量分析,为从脆性源的角度制定事故预防措施提供了理论依据;同时在复杂系统脆性模型中,在系统下的瓦斯浓度聚积子系统层面上,寻找预防瓦斯爆炸事故的可行方法和措施,利用混沌理论和神经网络技术实现了对瓦斯浓度信号变化趋势的预测,根据瓦斯浓度变化趋势,为在可能出现瓦斯浓度聚积的未来时间内,制定周密严格的事故预防策略提供理论指导;完善了煤矿事故脆性模型,定义了复杂系统的基础脆度和关联脆度的概念,确定了煤矿安全预评价中各个安全级别的基础脆度范围,通过计算煤矿瓦斯涌出量、地质结构、涌水量等十项评价指标的关联脆度,对煤矿自然条件的脆性风险进行了评价。通过对鸡西矿业集团东海煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故系统的建模分析,计算出导致瓦斯爆炸事故发生的各个致因因素在系统脆性结构、系统崩溃概率和系统崩溃概率的敏感程度上的重要度的不同,综合考虑这三个方面的因素,制定了按作用综合重要度从重到轻的顺序实施监控的控制策略,同时提出在瓦斯监控设备上实施对瓦斯浓度变化趋势进行预测的措施,根据预测结果,制定更加完善的控制策略,实现对瓦斯爆炸事故的预防,完善了监控设备的设计思路,进一步提高了瓦斯爆炸事故监控的可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, with the structure of the system become complex more and more, and the function become more and more perfect. Any system is a subsystem of the community system, its operation will be some effect to the society. Once the brittle of subsystems excited, it will result in brittleness of the system excitation, resulting in system crash, bringing immeasurable impact and losses. Brittleness of complex systems means to the subsystem within a complex system collapse by outside interference, causing the collapse of a complex chain reaction within the system, leading to the collapse of the whole system. Analysis of complex system brittleness excitation causes and mechanism of brittle source identification and evaluation of the conditions necessary for brittle and so excited with the brittle-related problems is to recognize and control of complex systems means necessary.In this paper, the complex system is research object, in complex nonlinear systems, emergence, hierarchy, relevance and dynamic nature of the basic features of the foundation, analysis and research the brittleness of another character of complex systems. Specific performance of a complex system brittleness is a subsystem for the system under the influence of outside interference sudden collapse, thereby affecting the other subsystems with associated collapse. When the complex system’s several key subsystems crash, the entire complex system will enter into a state of disorder, unable to complete its normal function, that is, the collapse of the entire system. In this paper, based on the theory of brittle, construct complex systems brittle tree model, improve the modeling theory of complex system’s brittleness, define the importance of brittle structure, an important degree of probability of brittle and brittle critical degree. Respectively, from the structure of the brittle model, probability of brittle factors influence the probability of system collapse and brittle factors change the probability of collapse probability rate on three aspects of the rate of change of complex system brittleness factors discussed in the course of the role of a system crash, and the East China Sea gas explosion accidents and system as an example of quantitative analysis. And also provides theoretical basis for the Source from the perspective of developing brittle accident prevention measures;While in the complex system brittleness model, on gas density in the accumulation of subsystem, looking for possible ways and measures of preventing gas explosion, using Chaos theory and neural network technology to achieve the gas concentration signal change trend forecast. According to change of gas concentration, gas concentration in the possible accumulation of the future time, strictly well-developed accident prevention strategies and provide theoretical guidance; improve the coal mine accident brittle model, defines the basic fragility of complex systems and the associated concept of brittleness, evaluation of coal mine safety identified the various security levels based on the scope of brittleness, Mine gas emission by calculating the geological structure, discharge, etc. Evaluation of the association crisp ten degrees, the brittleness of the natural conditions of coal mine risk evaluation. According to the modeling analysis of East China Sea gas explosion accidents and system ,we will calculate the result of gas explosion accident causation factors in the system in all brittle structure, system crash, crash probability probability and the sensitivity of the important degree of difference. Considering that three of the three factors , making control strategy of from heavy to light on comprehensive, while proposed the implementation of the gas monitoring device on the gas concentration to predict the trend of the measures. According to forecast results, making a more comprehensive control strategy, achieving the prevention of gas explosion, improving the monitoring equipment design ideas, and further improve the reliability of gas explosion monitoring.更多还原