【作者】 肖然；

【导师】 何敏；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 财政学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 亚洲金融危机以及美国次贷危机从房地产行业的视角向人们揭示了地方政府财政风险所导致的财政不稳定以及整个宏观经济不景气。地方政府具有经济主体和公共主体的双重身份,决定了其不仅要面对显性风险、直接风险,而且要面对隐性风险、或有风险。而风险的不确定性又包括公共资源的不确定性和支出责任与义务的不确定性。1994年分税制改革以后,公共资源和支出责任与义务的不确定性就表现为我国地方政府财权与事权的不对称性,在一定程度上加剧了地方政府财政风险。由此,地方政府开始寻求弥补地方财政收入的途径。由于我国地方政府在土地收益分配体制中的垄断地位,地方政府“土地财政”应运而生。土地财政收入主要由土地资产收益、土地税收收入、行政性收费收入及其他隐性收入四部分组成,土地财政主要表现为地方财政收入过度依赖土地所获取的土地出让金和土地附属的房地产税收收入。在近期我国房地产市场异常火爆的经济背景下,土地出让金、房地产税收以及房地产价格之间的密切联系越来越受到人们的关注。房地产业超常发展的可持续性问题引发了对地方政府土地财政收入可持续性的质疑,从而造成地方政府财政风险的增加。所以,为了降低土地财政对地方财政风险的影响,我们需要从财政体制、土地出让制度以及房地产物业税三方面进行改革。以上是一个简单的思路,按照主体结构,本文可以分为四个部分。第一部分：主要介绍有关财政风险与土地财政的国内外相关理论。国外的财政理论主要是以白海娜为代表的财政风险矩阵,她将财政风险分为显性风险、隐性风险、直接风险和或有风险四大类,扩大了对政府债务的认识范围,克服了传统债务理论片面性和短期性的缺点。但是其存在就债务论债务的问题。通过政府经济主体和公共主体双重身份的分析,根据风险的不确定学说,刘尚希博士将财政风险的不确定性分为公共资源的不确定性和支出责任与义务的不确定性。就目前的发展趋势来看,公共资源的不确定性越来越扩大,支出责任与义务的不确定性相对缩小。所以,本文主要以公共资源的不确定性为研究主体。公共资源的不确定性又主要表现为政府财政收入的可持续性问题。以公共资源为分析对象的财政收入占GDP的比重、税收收入占财政总收入的比重以及预算外资金占财政总收入的比重,以支出责任与义务为分析对象的赤字率、债务压力指数等指标都表明我国存在一定程度上财政风险,并有加剧的趋势。同时,针对土地财政,张晓洁提出的一个主要由土地税收、土地非税收入和隐性财政收入组成的土地财政收入结构体系。第二部分：主要运用财政风险理论来分析分税制下我国地方政府的财政风险状况,再根据我国的实际情况来分析产生地方财政风险的原因。首先,从地方政府的财政风险矩阵可以看出,四类负债的总额都较大,同时,隐性负债大于显性负债以及或有显性负债大于直接显性负债,就长期来看,隐性负债和或有负债对地方政府财政风险有较大的影响。其次,从财政风险的指标分析可以看出,在横向比较中,我国绝大多数地方政府存在赤字率超过国际警戒线3%的水平、地方财政收入占GDP的比重不足10%以及税收收入占地方财政收入的比重低于80%的问题,而且与各地的经济发展水平有明显的相关性；在以上海市为例的纵向比较中,在财政收入不断增长的情况下,税收收入占全市财政收入的不断降低尤为引人注意,可以推测在当前房地产业迅猛发展的情况下,以土地为依托的土地出让金收入和其他非税收入所带来的财政收入增长是不可持续的。最后,我国的分税制财政体制中财权、财力与税权的不对称以及财政转移支付体制的不完善,和土地收益分配制度中各主体利益分配的不合理进一步验证了土地财政对地方政府财政风险的影响。第三部分：深入分析土地财政对地方政府财政风险的影响。从房地产业的角度,以土地财政收入的四大组成部分为基础,着眼于土地出让金与房地产税收收入两个主要方面,揭示出我国地方政府土地财政中存在的问题。从土地出让金收入的角度来看,地方财政收入中以土地出让金为主要组成部分的非税收入所占的比重过高以及地方政府对土地出让金征收管理的不规范操作都会导致地方政府财政风险的积累。从房地产税费收入的角度来看,房地产税费体系中存在的费重税轻和税负结构不合理的现象说明我国通过房地产业,土地财政对地方政府财政风险的影响。然后,分析地方政府财政风险与房地产业的关系。从比重分析看出,土地出让金和房地产税费占房地产价格的比重过高；从相关性分析看出,房地产价格与地方政府财政风险存在相关性。在当前我国房地产市场存在一定泡沫、我国18亿亩“耕地红线”规定以及《物权法》对土地使用权的自动续期等确权规定说明过度依赖土地及其附属房地产的土地财政是不可持续的。第四部分：从改革财政体制、土地收益分配制度和建立房地产物业税三个方面对降低土地财政对地方财政风险影响提出相应的政策建议。改革地方政府财政体制的核心是建立起一个财权、财力与事权相匹配的财税制度,使得地方政府所拥有的公共资源与其所承担的支出责任与义务相对称,使得公众能够获得充足的公共物品与劳务。同时,从规范支出责任与义务的角度建立一个科学的地方政府绩效评估体系和从充实公共资源的角度发行地方公债也是降低土地财政不良影响的重要方法。改革土地出让制度的核心是建立一个公平合理的土地收益分配制度,使得土地增值收益在地方政府、集体组织和被征地农民之间合理分配。同时,借鉴国际经验,通过建立地方财政稳定基金来解决土地财政中存在的代际公平问题,降低短期内地方政府的财政机会主义行为,减少经济波动所导致地方财政的不稳定性。建立房地产物业税体系是当前我国房地产税制改革的焦点。建立根据各国房地产物业税的实施经验,结合当前我国正在进行房地产物业税模拟测试的“空转”运行情况表明房地产物业税与土地出让金、房地产其他税费之间并不是简单的替代关系,还涉及到地方财政收入的稳定性和可持续性。具体的税制设计中主要涉及课税对象范围的分类界定、房地产税制结构的设计、相应税率的确定以及房地产价值的评估等问题。通过以上三个途径可以在一定程度上解决土地财政对地方财政风险的不良影响,从而达到地方政府财政状况改善的三个标准：财政赤字减少、财政可持续性以及财政效率提高。本文的创新之处在于从房地产业的研究视角出发,基于土地财政收入的结构,分析了房地产价格、土地出让金和房地产税收之间的关系。从公共资源与支出责任义务两个方面,揭示了房地产价格与地方财政风险的相关性。对当前房地产价格超常增长情况下地方财政状况的波动起到了预警作用。同时,为防止土地财政对地方政府财政风险的恶化影响提出了三方面的综合治理建议,在一定程度上起到了化解风险的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the perspective of the real estate industry, both the Asian financial crisis and the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis have revealed serious financial instability and economic recession caused by local government fiscal risks. For the double identities of local governments as economic and public agents, local governments not only have to face direct and contingent risks, but also explicit and implicit risks. Furthermore, the uncertainty of fiscal risks divides into the uncertainty of public resources and expenditure of responsibilities and obligations. After the taxing system reform in 1994, the asymmetry of local governments’fiscal authority and performance authority increases local government fiscal risks. With the monopoly power in the allocation of land transferring revenues system, local governments create land finance to compensate for their fiscal deficiency. The main forms of land finance are land transferring fees and real estate taxes. In the recent hot real estate market, more and more attention is paid to the close link among land transferring fees, real estate taxes and real estate prices. Extraordinary development of the real estate industry leads to the unsustainability of local governments’land finance, resulting in the increasing of local government fiscal risks. Therefore, to reduce the unhealthy impact of local governments’land finance, we must reform the financial system, land transferring system and real estate taxing system.This article can be divided into four parts as follows.Part 1:Basic introduction to domestic and foreign fiscal risks theories. The fiscal risks matrix introduced by Hana Polackova Brixi divides fiscal risks into four kinds, named as direct risks, contingent risks, explicit risks and implicit risks. This enlarges the view of government debt, and reflects the condition of government debt more comprehensive. But it only stands on the point of debt. By analyzing the double identities of local governments as economic and public agents and the uncertainty of fiscal risks, Doctor ShangxiLiu focuses on the uncertainty of public resources which mainly performs as the unsustainability of local governments’revenues. By analyzing some fiscal risks indexes, we can see that fiscal risks in our government have an increasing trend.Part 2:Discuss local government fiscal risks in detail and study the causes of them. By analyzing our local government fiscal risks matrix, contingent and implicit risks will increase local government fiscal risks in the long term. With the comparison of local government fiscal risks indexes in different areas, most local governments have serious fiscal risks which are related to local economic growth. With the comparison of Shanghai’s fiscal risks indexes from 1995 to 2008, the ratio of tax revenues in total finance revenues is decreasing while finance revenues are increasing. In the recent hot real estate market, this abnormal growth from land transferring fees and other fees is unsustainable. In the end, the paper discusses the drawbacks of the financial system and land transferring system which are the fundamental causes of land finance.Part 3:Deeply analyze the unhealthy impact of local governments’land finance on local government fiscal risks from four parts of land finance revenues. Mainly focusing on land transferring fees and real estate taxes, the paper reveals the problem existing in land finance. By analysis of the correlation of the growth ratio of fiscal deficiency, land transferring fees and GDP, we find there are close links between real estate prices and local government fiscal risks. Because of a certain degree of bubble in recent real estate market, the least 1800 million acres farmland in the provision of "farmland red line" and the automatically renewal right of using land in the provision of "Property Law", land finance revenues relied on land and its affiliated real estate are not sustainable.Part 4:Give recommendations to reduce the unhealthy impact of local governments’land finance on local government fiscal risks. The core of reforming the financial system is establishing a harmony financial system in which local governments’fiscal authority matches their performance authority. So, local governments with sufficient financial revenues can provide adequate public goods and services. The core of reforming the land transferring system is establishing a fair distribution system of land profits among local governments, organizations and peasantries. With the high-speed development of China’s real estate industry, the core of reforming the real estate taxing system is the introduction of property tax which can not only increase local governments’revenues, but also standardize land finance revenues. Through the three ways above, we can reduce the unhealthy impact of local governments’land finance on local government fiscal risks to a certain extent.更多还原