【作者】 陈东；

【导师】 潘席龙；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近三十年来,全球巨灾发生数明显上升,造成的损失也不断加大,而我国一直是全球受巨灾影响最为严重的国家之一,尤其是2008年5月的汶川大地震造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。面对一个个这样的灾难,我国进行的救助主要还是依靠财政资金及社会捐助,效果十分有限。如今,新西兰、美国、日本、欧盟一些国家以及我国台湾地区等,已经有了比较成功的巨灾补偿体系；当前我国社会对我国巨灾补偿体系的构建已有了广泛的讨论。因此,本文比较和总结世界上现有巨灾补偿体系的成功及可取之处,分析国内学者所提模式存在的问题,以此构建适合于我国的巨灾补偿体系模式,并为建立我国巨灾补偿体系借鉴所用。本文的主要内容有七个部分：第一章是前言部分,说明了当前全球及我国面临日益严峻的巨灾形势,以及本文所采用的研究方法以及文章的逻辑结构。第二章首先综合世界上各机构及学者关于巨灾的定义和看法,并综合分析得出以灾害造成的人员伤亡和财产损失作为衡量巨灾的核心因素较为可行；接着论述巨灾各方面的特征、影响巨灾损失大小的因素以及现有的一些巨灾损失估计模型,以为巨灾风险的有效管理奠定基础。第三章是巨灾风险分配相关的理论综述。从巨灾风险管理涉及的理论根源和发展过程来看,主要有基于大数定律的风险分配观点、巨灾商业保险的利弊分析、巨灾衍生金融工具(巨灾期货、巨灾期权、巨灾债券等)的效果论述、政府对巨灾风险干预作用的争论、其他使巨灾风险符合大数定律的方法等；最后总结当前我国学者构建巨灾保险体系的看法,并加以评论和总结,得出适合我国巨灾补偿体系构建的理论逻辑。第四、第五章从各国巨灾补偿体系的发展历程出发,总结各国从灾前预防到灾后救助一系列的措施,以及几个典型国家巨灾补偿制度现状,从法律背景、模式、承保范围、承保主体、资金来源和运作、赔付及分配等方面比较分析了这些国家巨灾补偿制度的特点,总结了它们的异同,得出基本模式和成功经验。第六章概括了当前我国巨灾救助体系的现状,得出其存在补偿主体单一、补偿比例低下,保险业尤其是巨灾保险业不发达等问题。第七章在前文的基础上,结合基金、保险、巨灾债券等资产组织和运作特点,提出设立我国巨灾补偿基金的构想,并给出了该基金的一个简要框架,就设立该基金的目标、运作模式与特征等方面进行了论述。第八章对全文进行了总结,并指出本文在基金定价、补偿比例的确定等方面还需要进一步深入研究。本文中,笔者认为巨灾风险低概率、范围广、损失大等特征使得通过传统的商业保险方式进行巨灾风险管理并不可行。短时间内要改变我国巨灾风险的“自然”特征是不可能的,目前能做的就只有改变传统保险业务的经营方式和赔付资金的积累方式。其中,巨灾风险证券化可以有效地将巨灾风险转移到资本市场,并能实现在抵御巨灾风险过程中的公私合作,是突破巨灾风险分散与转移的重要渠道。近期国内专家和学者提出在我国建立巨灾保险体系的想法,则面临我国巨灾保险业落后的困境。当前,美国、日本、新西兰,欧盟的一些国家,以及中国的台湾地区等依据各自国情建立了巨灾补偿体系。主要模式包括新西兰地震委员会型、由政府最后无限担保的政府主导型；以日本再保险株式会社(JER)和法国国营再保险公司(CCR)为代表的再保险型,和以美国加州地震局(CEA)为代表的私有公办、政府不担保型；以及以台湾财团法人住宅地震保险基金为代表、由财团法人和政府在最高赔付限额内提供有限担保的非盈利机构型等。各补偿体系的主要区别表现在机构性质、承保巨灾范围、政府是否提供担保以及强制性等方面。而其成功经验更多地体现在它们的共同点上：一是以专门的法律为基础,做到有法可依；二是有不同程度的政府参与；三是巨灾补偿资金来源的多样性；四是资金运作多样化；五是补偿具有层次性；六是以保险和巨灾保险为基础,对保险业的成熟度有一定的依赖性。实践证明,这些国家的巨灾风险管理制度在应对重大灾害方面发挥了重要作用。结合其他国家的成功经验,和我国保险业不发达的弊端,本文建议我国可建立巨灾补偿基金,其核心为巨灾补偿基金公司,是由政府直接控制和管理的企业组织；基金在资金管理方面,由两个相互独立的账户构成,分别管理政府资金和社会资金；资金来源有政府和社会类资金、发行基金以及巨灾衍生工具、投资收益留成等；在资金运作方面兼顾流动性、安全性和收益性；在收入分配方面执行支付费用或成本、缴纳税收、按比例留成、进行巨灾补偿的顺序。总体看来,本文的创新之处主要有两点。在方法上。其他类似文献在比较分析各国模式时,只采用了将每一国的具体情况单独说明后再总结的方式。本文为更好地进行对比,从制度的各个层面,即从法律背景、承保主体和核心机构性质、资金来源与运作、赔付设定等方面来逐一比较现有巨灾补偿制度,能更清晰地得出各国的基本模式,以更好地借鉴使用。在结论上。本文基于四川省社科联青年项目《建立四川省巨灾补偿基金研究》(SC08C13)的分析将在理论上填补我国巨灾补偿基金方面存在的主要不足,并突破国内传统研究集中于保险市场的主要局限：充分利用证券市场、保险市场、信贷市场和财政手段为巨灾补偿拓宽资金来源,突破当前巨灾补偿制度过分依赖财政资金、以及受制于巨灾保险发展滞后而难以发展的限制。本文所提出的基金模式有望能同时兼顾社会性和企业性；基本补偿的公平性和差别补偿的商业性。有望能充分调动基金所有人追求利润的积极性,更有效地做好灾前预防和灾后减损工作,避免纯粹行政机构运作方式中难以避免的低效率问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The past 30 years has witnessed the growing catastrophes all over the world, and also the increasing losses following behind. China is always a country seriously stricken by Cats; especially the "Wenchuan" earthquake (May,2008) caused magnificent losses in human lives and economy. But in China the main way to deal with these Cats always lies in the use of fiscal funds and social donations, which is usually of limited effects. On the contrary, other countries like New Zealand, America, Japan, Taiwan District and several countries in European Union have established more successful compensation systems for Cats. Recently, heated and extensive debates were carried out all over our country upon the foundation of Chinese catastrophe compensation system. Based on comparison and summary of those extant systems, this paper aims at offering some help for the construction of our system.The main context of this paper is composed of seven parts:Chapter 1 is the foreword, describing the current catastrophe situations faced by the whole world, especially by our country, and explaining the research methods and the logic of this paper. Chapter 2 summarizes the definition of "catastrophe" given by different organizations and scholars, and gets the conclusion that without considering the shaping factors, to regard the human lives and economy losses as the core factor to measure the Cat losses is more appropriate; then this chapter describes the characters of catastrophe risks to make a basis for the foundation of efficient management of Cats. Chapter 3 is a review of the literatures related to catastrophe risks. During the development of the theories in relation to catastrophe management, there are risk allocation views based on law of large numbers, dispute on the strong points and weak points of catastrophe insurance, comments on the catastrophe derivatives such as catastrophe futures, catastrophe options and catastrophe bonds, dispute on the effect of governmental intervention, and other ways that could fit the catastrophe risks to law of large numbers. Finally, to conclude the ideas of building our catastrophe insurance system which were put forward by Chinese scholars, and to work out the theory logic of the establishment of our compensation system. Chapter 4 and 5 begins with the development history of catastrophe compensation systems in other countries, summarizes the prevention and rescue measures taken by them, compares their systems in legal background, operation mode, insurance coverage, subject of coverage, the flow of fund, and the pay and allocation regulation, etc., draws a conclusion of the similarity and difference among those systems, and at last finds out the common pattern and successful experience of them. Chapter 6 generalizes the situation of our current compensation system for Cats, and picks out its weak points, such as the rareness of compensation subject, the smallness of salvation ratio, the underdevelopment of catastrophe insurance. Based upon the above work, Chapter 7 suggests a new conception on how to establish the. Catastrophe Compensation Fund of China (CCFC), which has been integrated with the advantages of the capital structure and operation mode of insurance, mutual funds, catastrophe bonds and stocks. The organization of the fund and related system, the sources and usages of CCFC, main ways in the operation and the advantages of CCFC are also discussed in details. In the end, chapter 8 comes to the conclusion of the whole paper, and points out the directions of intensive study on this theme.In this paper, the author holds a view that the low probability of the Cats, the broad influence and the huge losses caused by them, etc. make the traditional commercial insurance unsuitable for the Cat risk management. To change the ’natural’characters of the Cats in a short time is impossible, so what we can do now is to remodel the traditional insurance operation style and the accumulation mode of compensation fund. Cat risks securitization can efficiently transfer the Cat risks to the capital market, and lead to cooperation of the public sector and private sector; it’s a promising way to solve the Cat risk allocation and transmission problem. But the ideas to establish Cat insurance system in China raised by many domestic scholars recently cannot deal with the situation of underdevelopment of the insurance industry.Up to now, the United States, Japan, New Zealand, some countries in the European Union and Taiwan District have set up their catastrophe compensation systems, according to their own national conditions. The main types of them can be concluded as follows:’unlimited guarantee by the government’type as the EQC (New Zealand),’reinsurance’type as the JER (Japan) and CCR (France),’private and without government’s guarantee’type as CEA (USA),’unprofitable firm’type as TREIF (Taiwan District).The main differences among those compensation systems mentioned above arise from the nature of organization, the scope of covered catastrophes, the enforceability and government guarantee, etc. The successful experience is reflected on the common points of those systems:firstly, based on specialized laws to go by; secondly, with inordinately government involvement; thirdly, diversity of sources of the compensation funds; furthermore, diversity of operations of the funds; in addition, hierarchy of compensation; finally, based on the developed insurance and catastrophe insurance industry. It has been found that, those catastrophe risk management systems played an important role in dealing with catastrophes and did great help in losses compensation.So, based on the underdevelopment of the insurance industry in China and integrated with the successful experience of other countries, this paper puts forward a proposal to establish Catastrophe Compensation Fund of China (CCFC): its core institution is catastrophe compensation fund co., which is directly managed by the government; the funds is managed with two separate accounts (government funds account and social funds account); the financing sources include government and social funds, issuance of the CCFC and related catastrophe derivatives, retention of the investment income, etc.; the fund is operated to reach the balance of liquidity, safety and profitability; and the income distribution in sequence is to pay the expenses or cost, to pay the taxes, to withhold investment income and to compensate catastrophe losses.On the whole, two innovations are created in this paper.One point is on the method of study. When comparing the compensation systems, other literatures only described the details of them separately and then got the conclusions. But in order to make better comparison, this paper takes a different point of view, that is from the sections of a system, such as legal background, operation mode, insurance coverage, subject of coverage, the flow of fund, and the pay and allocation regulation. This way helps to analyze the existing systems more clearly and more conveniently to draw lessons from. Another point is on the conclusion. Based on a youth program’Research on the establishment of catastrophe compensation system of Sichuan’(SC08C13), which is supported by Sichuan Federation of Social Science, this paper will fill the gap in the study on the mode of catastrophe compensation system of China in the future, break the research limits focused on the insurance industry in domestic studies, enlarge the sources of fund for catastrophe compensation through security market, insurance market, credit market and fiscal policies, overcome the weak point that the current compensation system is almost tied to financial funds and hardly to develop for the limitation of the underdevelopment in insurance industry.The fund mode put forward in this paper is likely to give consideration to both the sociability and commerciality, to reach the justice in basic compensation and compensation differential in commerciality, to mobilize the initiative of fund holders to chase money, to get better pre-disaster preparations and post-disaster loss reduction and to avoid the low efficiency problem brought about during the operation only by government agencies.更多还原