【作者】 潘尚；

【导师】 刘崇仪；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 英国新经济学派的重要代表人物罗伯逊于1937年提出“对外贸易是经济增长的发动机”的命题,寓意为对外贸易是经济增长的主要动力。该观点现在已基本被广泛接受。在对外贸易理论和经济增长理论的发展过程中,由于对外贸易与经济增长影响较为复杂,选取怎样的对外贸易模式来促进经济增长,对于各国也是各不相同的。改革开放以来,四川省的对外贸易无论从绝对数量、增量、还是出口质量、产品结构都取得了巨大的进步,为四川省国民经济的发展提供了坚实的基础,也为其他内陆省份对外贸易发展提供了宝贵的经验和良好的示范。首先,本文从贸易促进理论、贸易折中理论和贸易阻碍理论三个角度出发分别进行理论来源、作用方向与影响机制等方面的介绍与描述对外贸易和经济增长的关系。基本肯定了对外贸易对于经济增长的正向促进作用。之后根据近年来的国际国内关于对外贸易与经济增长关系的研究文献,试图找到一条合理解释两者关系的正确方法。而后又从进口替代和出口导向两种不同的战略性贸易政策的原理,特定产业选择上进行分析,最终得出的政策结果是应该扶持那些技术外溢显著的产业以及符合增强本国企业利润、降低外国竞争者利润的产业。正文部分我们首先从四川省基本的经济贸易指标入手进行了描述。并且按照国内与国外两方面对外贸易的地区分布分别进行描述,四川省对外贸易的开展主要是依赖于成德绵地区,这里拥有较好的发展制造业的基础、拥有便利的基础设施建设以及人才优势,因此发展成为四川经济贸易的中心。从贸易伙伴的贸易额趋势来看,大都经历了1998年以来较快发展与提高的过程,其中同美国、日本、香港贸易增长势头较猛,而同法国以及澳大利亚等国则一直保持在较低的水平。值得注意的是同印度、韩国等国贸易发展较快,为将来四川省对外贸易发展找寻到新的市场。其次,我对于四川省对外贸易情况从企业结构、贸易方式结构和产品结构三方面进行分析。从中可以看出,近年来,四川省私营集体企业出口增速较快,具有较强的发展潜力,而进口则以外资企业和国有企业为主：企业贸易方式主要以一般贸易为主,其他贸易方式贸易额较低；贸易产品结构当中主要是以机电产品为主贸易,高新技术产品贸易为辅,农产品贸易额较低。特别需要指出的是,在2008年全球金融危机和汶川大地震的影响下,之所以四川省对外贸易额保持高速上升,贸易结构持续优化,是由于四川省对外贸易发展具有很强的自身特点,即利用特色产业发展来带动对外贸易发展,进而促进经济增长。再次,本研究选取新古典增长模型,利用修正了的巴拉萨—费德公式进行估算。克服了通常使用的凯恩斯恒等式当中的有可能存在的一系列高估或者低估的问题。通过采用协整、Granger因果检验等定量方法研究四川省对外贸易与经济增长的关系,得出四川省对外贸易特别是出口增长对于经济增长作用明显,而进口增长则更多的通过影响就业和资本存量的递增来达到影响经济增长。在实证的基础上,本研究进一步从产业结构的角度提出发展四川省对外贸易的策略。最后,本文运用面板数据估计计算方法对四川省对外贸易的地区分别进行定量分析。结合2003年—2008年的数据,选取四川省主要的31个贸易伙伴,进行面板回归运算,最后就对其贸易对四川省经济增长的影响方向和影响程度分别进行分析,得出了出口&进口显著、出口显著、进口显著和出口&进口都不显著四种类型国家。从中我们看到,更应该重视同发展中国家的进口与出口,而在同一些发达国家进行贸易的过程中,并非能够为四川省经济增长带来明显正向影响。本文研究的最大特点是运用了大量对外贸易数据进行实证研究,定量分析与定性分析相结合,从贸易的影响,经济增长的影响,省内地区贸易分布、对外贸易国别分布等方面进行了较为全面的分析。本研究对每一部分都进行了详细的文献综述,并采用较为前沿的计量经济学方法,分析四川省对外贸易现状分析利弊,并在最后针对性地提出了发展四川省对外贸易的策略建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The most important representative of Britain’s new school of economics Robertson made the proposition:"foreign trade is the engine of economic growth," in 1937. This point has been basically and widely accepted. However, In the development of foreign trade theory and economic growth theory, the influence of foreign trade and economic growth is comparatively complicated, What kind of foreign trade mode to chose comes to promote the economic growth is different for each contry. Since the reform and opening-up, foreign trade of Sichuan Province make enormous progress in absolute quantity, increment, export quality, product structure.Have not merely offered the solid foundation for improvement of development of the national economy in Sichuan Province, and develop valuable experience and good demonstration for the other foreign trade of landlocked province.First, this text will explain the relation between foreign tade and economic growth by using the next three theories:trade promote theory, trade compromise theory and trade hinder theory.The text will explain these theories form three expects:theory source, function direction and mechanism of influencing.The explanation has basically affirmed the facilitation from foreign trade to economic growth.Finally,according to the international and domestic research documents about foreign trade and economic growth in recent years,I attempt to find a correct method to explain the relation of foreign trade and economic growth.We analyze two kinds of different principles of Strategic trade policy principle--inport substitution and export orientation and selected specific industry, The final policy result should support these remarkably technical overflow industry as well as those enterprise which can strengthens our country’s profit and reduce the foreign competitor strength..we first carry on the textual material from making a description on the Sichuan basic economical trade target.And I describe the textual material according to domestic and overseas the two foreign trade’s local distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade’s development is mainly relies on the ChengDu、MianZhu and DeYang area.Those area has the good developed manufacturing industry foundation、convenience infrastructural facilities as well as can the talented person superiority, therefore those area develop into economical trade center in Sichuan.By looking through the trade volume, we can find out that the trade partners have experienced a quick development and the enhancement process since 1998,and the trade of American, Japanese, Hong Kong rising momentum is fierce,but other contries such as France and Australia have maintained a the low level in the same field.It is noteworthy that the trade development between SiChan and those countries such as India and South Korea is very quick.,so it will be useful for developing the future new marke in SiChuan.Regarding the Sichuan foreign trade situation, I analyze from the pattern of enterprises, the type of trading structure and the product mix three. We can see, the Sichuan privately operated collective enterprise export volume speed-up was very quick in recent years,those enterprises has strong development potential, but the Foreign-funded enterprise and the State-owned business’s import volume speed up by very quikly.The enterprise type of trade is Constituted by the general trade, the volume of other type of trading is mainly low.In the trade product mix is mainly the mechanical and electrical products, and the high-tech product trade is auxiliary.The declining trend of agricultural.What needs to point out especially is that, in 2008, under the influence of the world financial crisis and Wenchuan big earthquake, the reason why the Sichuan foreign trade turnover maintains the high speed rising and the trade structure optimizes continually, because the Sichuan foreign trade development has the very strong characteristic,that is by using the characteristic industrial development to promote foreign trade development, then to promote economic growth.Next, this research selects neoclassic growth model to carry on the estimate by using revised the Palestinian Lhasa-spends the formula,which has overcome the problems about a series of overestimations or the underestimate question in using Keynes identical equation.Through useing cooperates entire, and Granger causes and effects examination quantitative methods to study the Sichuan foreign trade and the economic growth relations, obtains that the Sichuan foreign trade, especially the export growth,have obvious effect on economic growth.But imports growth influences economic growth through influencing the employment and the capital storage quantity increasing. In the real diagnosis foundation, this research further proposes the strategy of developing the Sichuan foreign trade from industrial structure’s angle.Finally, this article utilizes the kneading board data to estimate Sichuan foreign trade area distrubution by using quantitative analysis.Unifing 2003-2008 data and selecting the Sichuan main 31 trade partner, I carry on the kneading board to return the operation,finally carring the analysis separately on the influence of foreign trade to Sichuan economic growth’s influence direction and the influence degree.Obtaining four types of country:exported & Imports, the export remarkable, the import remarkable and exports & Import not remarkable country.It is can be seen that we should pay more attention on the developing country import and export, but in the proces of carring trade with some developed countries, it can bring the obvious forward influence by no means for the Sichuan economic growth..This research’s most major characteristic is utilizing the massive foreign trade data to conduct the empirical study, from trade influence, economic growth influence, the Sichuan inland area trade distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade nationality distribution the four aspect,using the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis at the sametime. This research has carried on the detailed literature summary of each part, using advanced econometrics method, analyzing the Sichuan foreign trade present situation, analyzing the advantages and diavantages of Sichuan foreign trade, finally develops the strategy suggestion.更多还原