【作者】 王丁；

【导师】 杭艳红；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国房地产业获得了迅猛的发展,房地产业也逐步成为我国的支柱产业,对于带动国民经济其他产业的发展起到了极其重要的作用。商品住宅市场是房地产市场重要部分,它的变化不仅关系到广大消费者的切身利益,同时也是社会关注的焦点问题。由于商品住宅市场的特殊性,产品的异质性,价格形成的区域性比较强,需要对各个城市商品住宅市场进行研究。正是鉴于此,我们以哈尔滨市商品住宅价格为研究对象对哈尔滨市商品住宅价格进行分析和预测。自1998年住宅分配制度改革以来,哈尔滨商品住宅市场得到迅速发展,商品住宅价格出现持续增长的势头,城市的商品住宅价格出现了大幅上涨,部分板块的住宅价格出现了在短期内成倍上涨的现象,商品住宅价格增长速度大大超出居民收入增长速度,房价成为社会关注和讨论的热点话题。稳定住房价格,将其变动限定在一个合理的区间范围内,已成为社会关注的热点问题,也是哈尔滨市宏观调控的主要任务。商品住宅价格与人民的生活关系密切,无论是促进地区经济发展,还是在满足人民群众生活需要上,商品住宅价格的变动和发展趋势举足轻重。因此,从商品住宅价格入手,研究影响商品住宅价格各因素之间的关系,定量分析影响商品住宅价格的各因素,研究商品住宅价格的变动趋势并进行科学预测,对合理确定商品住宅价格,维护居民的住房权益,指导国家政策调节与管理,促进商品住宅市场健康发展都有着重要的意义。本论文主要以灰色理论为主要的研究工具,运用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对哈尔滨市商品住宅价格进行研究,分析了影响哈尔滨市商品住宅价格的相关因素,运用灰色关联分析的方法确定各个因素对哈尔滨市商品住宅价格影响关联度的大小;在定性分析哈尔滨市商品住宅价格现状的基础上运用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)——马尔科夫模型价格预测模型,根据分析得出以下结论:1)影响哈尔滨市商品住宅的主要因素是家庭财富状况、人均住房使用面积,哈尔滨市商品价格的上涨主要是由需求拉动的2)预测结果显示2010年哈尔滨市市区商品住宅价格呈持续上升的趋势,最后得到2010年哈尔滨市城区商品房均价各季度预测值分别为6012.6、6311.9、6426.7、6757.6元/平方米,房价整体稳定上涨仍然是主流。但是这种上涨不会象2009年一样呈现快速、跳跃的态势,上涨的幅度仍然不小,但是与2009年相比增速将放缓。3)把灰色系统理论运用于房地产价格变动的研究具有一定的可靠性和适用性,灰色—马尔科夫预测模型比GM(1,1)预测模型得出的结果更准确。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening, real estate market in China has gained rapid development and gradually become the pillar industry in China; it played a very important role to promote the development of other industries in the national economy. Commercial housing market is an important part of the real estate market; its changes are not only related to the vital interests of the consumers but also the focus of social concern. As the special nature of the heterogeneity of products, price formation of regional relatively strong of commercial housing market the study for cities’commercial housing market is necessary. For this, we view commercial housing prices in Harbin as the object of study then commodity analysis and forecasting house prices. Since the reform of domestic distribution system from 1998, commercial housing market has developed rapidly. commodity housing prices continued growth, the city’s commercial housing prices have soared, some sections of the housing prices doubled rising in the short term phenomenon of commercial housing price growth rate far exceeded income growth, house prices become a social concern and a hot topic, Stable housing prices have become a hot issue and a main task of macroeconomic regulation and control. Commercial housing prices and close to people’s lives, whether on the promotion of economic development or on meet to people’s needs, the commercial housing price‘s changes and trends are all important potentially Therefore, Therefore, study the relationship between factors which affecting commodity housing price, quantitative analysis the impact of various factors, research the commodity movements in housing prices and make scientific predictions has an important significance to determine the price, guidance regulation and management and promote the healthy development of commodity housing market .Grey system theory is major research tool of this paper. Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis using the method of combining commercial housing prices in Harbin study analyzed the impact of Harbin City, the price of commercial housing-related factors, the use of gray correlation analysis method to determine the various factors on the price of commercial housing in Harbin Correlation size; the qualitative analysis of commercial housing prices in Harbin on the basis of the status of the gray theory GM (1,1) - Markov model price forecasting model, based on an analysis the following conclusions: 1) The impact of Harbin, a major commercial residential household wealth status factors, the per capita housing floor area, Harbin commodity prices are mainly driven by the needs of 2) Forecasting results show that products of Harbin City in 2010 showed housing prices continued to rise, end up in Harbin City in 2010 Average price of the quarter predictive value were 6012.6,6311.9,6426.7,6757.6 yuan / square meter, house prices rose overall stability is still the mainstream. But this increase will not show as fast as in 2009, jumping the situation, the rising rate is still small, but compared with 2009, growth will slow. 3) The gray system theory applied to study changes in house prices has a certain reliability and applicability of gray - Markov model is better than GM (1,1) forecasting model results more accurate.更多还原