【作者】 刘宝玲；

【导师】 雷国平；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业遥感与土地利用， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 大庆市中心城区的土地利用是一个自然、社会、经济相互作用的复合和开放的复杂巨系统,具有离散性、非平衡性、多尺度性、层次性、不确定性和交互性等复杂性的特征。本研究以大庆市中心城区为研究对象,从系统内部微观层次出发,以一种进化的角度来理解大庆市中心城区土地利用复杂系统的演化过程。主要依据《大庆市土地利用总体规划(2006-2020)》,结合CA、MAS和GIS二次开发技术,根据系统动力学原理、资源经济极限理论、可持续发展理论、大庆市城市发展战略等理论,构建大庆市中心城区土地利用演化时空模拟模型。将模型分为环境要素层、MAS决策层和CA模拟层三个层次。其中环境要素层是由交通要素、经济趋势要素、产能用地要素等组成,是决策单元或评价单元所处的环境。MAS要素层包括政府Agent、、石油Agent和居民Agent三个多智能体用来相互协商和决策。政府Agent表现出规划行为。石油Agent表现出协商行为。居民Agent表现出选择行为。各Agent根据自身的依据对CA模拟层计算出的概率进行判断并与其他Agent协商决策被选地块t+1时刻的土地利用形式。CA模拟层包括元胞状态、元胞邻域及元胞转换规则,用来进行候选地块的评价和地类转换。三个层相互作用,相互协商共同理解所处环境。利用ArcGIS二次开发技术,设计和构建时空演变模拟平台,然后根据大庆市中心城区土地利用现状,反向模拟2000年大庆市土地利用情况。通过对比模拟成果与2000年中心城区土地利用数据的分析,检验模型准确性。利用时空演化模拟平台,依托交通衰减系数等20种可控参数,设计无干预、产能用地、城市转型战略和可持续发展理论四种情境,以2005为基期,设置近期(5年,即至2010年)、中期(15年,即至2020年)、远期(45年,即至2050年)三个时间维度。在时间和空间上模拟大庆市中心城区土地利用演化进行模拟。通过对不同情境下、不同时间维度上的模拟实验结果进行对比分析,得出大庆市中心城区土地利用的突出特点。主要特点包括:耕地减少是必然趋势,但应控其减少速度,同时产能用地占用耕地数量极少,城市建设才是耕地减少的根本原因;园地比重少,但对大庆市中心城区可持续发展有重要作用;重视林地建设,但宜林地有限。同时,当地林地发展到一定规模,可改善周围环境,使周围土地经济价值增加;自然条件下草地退化迅速,但大庆市政府部门具备治理盐碱化草地的能力,同时油区土地的复垦利用、城市绿化可增加草地,对草地进行补充;湿地近期减少迅速,却具有规模极限;建设用地呈现出近期可控性,远期不可遇见性;产能用地规模可以进行控制,但用于产能建设以后难以转变其他用途;大庆市中心城区未利用地不适合城市建设。再根据其特点,以时间和空间上合理利用土地资源为目标,针对性的提出土地利用建议,以避免大庆市中心城区土地资源的浪费。主要建议包括:控制耕地规模减少速度,防止耕地撂荒、沙化等情况发生;加大林地建设和园地、草地、湿地保护,林地可起到防风固沙的作用的同时美化城市景观。园地、草地、湿地对生态环境起着重要的作用,可根据2050年的演化极限值选择适合的区域设置园地集中区、草地核心区和湿地保护区并进行分区管制;积极开展油区土地集约、节约和复合利用。其中,油区复合利用的土地可选用生物能源植物绿化油区的同时生产可再生能源;加强土地利用总体规划的宏观调控作用。并将规划前置于用地行为执行,指导土地科学利用实现土地的集约、节约利用;加强土地的开发复垦整理。由于大庆市独特的地质构造和景观格局导致土地开发复垦整理成本过高,但大庆市应依托自身经济实力对具有区位优势的地块进行开发复垦整理。用于城市建设,缓解新增建设用地不足的矛盾。最后根据建议,设计模型参数,模拟出不同时间纬度上理想情境下的土地利用情况,直观展现科学合理的大庆市中心城区土地利用发展情况。根据实验结果,可以看出大庆市中心城区土地利用呈现出耕地必然减少、宜林地有限、自然条件下草地退化迅速、湿地具有规模极限、建设用地呈现出近期可控性和远期不可遇见性、产能用地规模可控制但建设后难以转变其他用途、未利用地不适合城市建设等特点。并提出控制耕地减少速度;设置林、园、草、湿等土地资源保护核心区,严格控制产能用地和建设用地发展等建议。根据以上特点和建议,可以为大庆市中心城区土地利用工作提供有意义的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The land use of Daqing city center is a natural, social, and economic interaction between the compound and the open complex giant system with discrete, non-equilibrium, multi-scale nature, hierarchy, such as uncertainty and complexity of interaction feature. In this study, the research object of Daqing city center, Starting from the micro-level within the system, An evolutionary perspective to understand the complex systems of land-use evolution of Daqing city center. Mainly based on《land use in Master Plan (2006-2020)》, combined with CA, MAS and secondary development of GIS technology, according to the system dynamics, the limit theory of economic resources, sustainable development theory, strategy for city development theory , construct land use evolution simulation model of Daqing city center.The model contain environmental factors layer, MAS decision-making layer and the CA simulation layer. Environmental factor layers are composed by transport element, economic trends element and energy-land elements, which is decision-making unit or the environment of evaluation units. MAS element layer including the government agent, oil agent, and residents agent, the three agents mutual consultation and decision-making. The government Agent show planning act. Oil Agent show negotiation behavior. Residents Agent show choice behavior. The Agent according to oneself on the basis of CA simulation calculate the probability of layer and negotiate with other Agent decision-making chosen plot t + 1 time of land utilization form.CA emulation layer including cellular state,CA neighborhood and cellular transformation rules, which used for the evaluation of the candidate block and land type conversion. Three layer interaction , mutual consultation and common understand their environment. Using ArcGIS secondary development, design and build space-time evolution simulation platform, and then under the current land use in Daqing city center, reverse simulate land use situations in 2000. By comparing the simulation results of the 2000 downtown land-use data analysis to test model accuracy.Use of space-time evolution simulation platform, Relying on the traffic attenuation coefficient of controllable parameter, 20 etc,designed four situation of non-intervention, energy-land, urban transformation strategies and the theory of sustainable development , 2005 as the base, set the near term (5 years, until 2010), medium (15 years, until 2020), long-term(45 years, until 2050) the three time dimensions. Simulation in time and space evolution of land use in Daqing city center. Through a variety of contexts, compared and analyzed the simulation results in different time scales obtain salient features of land use in Daqing city center. Main features include: the decrease is an inevitable trend, but should control the speed and capacity, reduce the quantity of cultivated land occupied land, urban construction is the root cause of the cultivated land change, Garden in daqing, but the proportion of urban sustainable development center has an important role, Attention, but the leading construction land. Meanwhile, the local land development to a certain scale, improve environment, economic value added to the land around, Under the conditions of natural grassland degradation of daqing rapidly, but the government departments have governance capability, and insert the land reclamation and utilization, and urban greening can increase of grass, grass complement, Wetland has recently reduced size limit, rapid, Presents recent construction land shall meet, long-term, Production scale can be controlled, but for the construction of a productivity to change other purposes; after Daqing city center unused land is not suitable for urban construction.Then according to their characteristics, reasonable use land resources as the goal in time and space, proposed land use recommendations, to avoid the waste of land resources in Daqing City center. Mainly include: reduce speed control land scale, prevent farmland abandoned, desertification, etc, Increasing woodland and grassland construction and gardens, wetland protection forest can have the effect of sand-fixation and beautify urban landscape. Garden, grassland, wetland ecological environment plays an important role, but according to the evolution of 2050 to choose suitable locale related field, grassland area and high wetland nature reserve and zoning regulation, Actively exploited, saving and composite intensive land utilization. Among them, the land use oil compound bio-energy can choose oil production plant virescence and renewable energy, To strengthen the general land use planning of macro-control role. And the land will be placed before planning, execution behavior of land utilization of land scientific realization by intensive, saving, To strengthen the development of land reclamation. Due to the unique daqing geological structure and landscape pattern of land reclamation arrangement to develop high cost, but the daqing should rely on its economic strength of locational advantage of plot development reclamation. For urban construction, alleviate the shortage of newly-increased construction land.Finally, according to recommendations design model parameters to simulate the ideal situation in different time scales under the land use, intuitive display a scientific and rational land use development in Daqing city center. According to the experimental results, we can see that farmland will be reduced, forest land be limited , grassland rapidly degradation under natural conditions, the size of wetlands have limition, construction land shows control in the recent and non-met in long-term, energy-land can be controlled but is difficult to change to other uses after construction, unused land is not suitable for urban construction, etc. And proposed that control the reduce speed of arable land; Setting the core protection of land resources in forest, garden, grass, wet areas, strictly control the energy-land and construction land development. According to the above characteristics and recommendations to provide a meaningful basis for land use in Daqing city center.更多还原