【作者】 丁红；

【导师】 刘东；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 三江平原是我国九大商品粮基地之一,对保障我国粮食安全起着举足轻重的作用。尽管三江平原水利工程设施不断完善,但水旱灾害却有不断加重的趋势,特别是自2000年以来,干旱频繁光顾作为非传统旱区的三江平原,由于该地区缺乏干旱评价体系研究及规律性的探讨,该极端气候已经成为制约当地农业发展的最重要的减产因子。因此,科学合理的分析和评价三江平原的干旱情况,并制定相应的抗旱减灾对策,对保障当地农业可持续稳定发展至关重要。(1)在阐述三江平原地理、自然、水文、社会经济等基础上,结合历史与实时资料,简要介绍三江平原目前的干旱状况。然后选取农垦红兴隆分局所辖东部八五二农场、西部北兴农场和中部江川农场作为旱情研究对象,采用小波分析理论对3个农场的年降水序列进行多时间尺度分析,揭示降水与干旱的关系并预测未来的趋势。最后根据分析结果并参考相关文献及业内专家的观点,总结该区域的干旱成因。(2)在参考大量国内外文献、并考虑资料可获取性基础上,选用降水距平百分率、Z指标和降水温度均一化指标作为三江平原干旱评价指标,并应用各指标对八五二、北兴和江川3个农场进行单因素评价,对比各等级评价结果。结果表明Z指标比其他两个评价指标能客观表征该区域的干旱特征。(3)采用模糊综合评判法对八五二、北兴和江川3个农场进行旱情综合评价,由于篇幅有限,仅对3个农场2008年的干旱程度进行评价,其结果与实际发生的干旱情况基本符合,说明此方法在三江平原旱情评价中具有适用性。(4)同时采用投影寻踪模型综合评价八五二、北兴和江川3个农场的干旱情况,为了改善传统优化算法的缺点,本文采用人工鱼群算法优化投影寻踪,并引入自适应的人工鱼步长和拥挤度因子改进人工鱼群算法。评价结果表明,该改进模型具有较高的精度,所得结果与实际相符,表明该模型适用于三江平原干旱评价。(5)利用加权马尔可夫链模型预测八五二、北兴和江川3个农场未来的降水量,分析未来的干旱情况,利用GM(1,1)模型预测3个农场未来的干旱年份。结果表明,这两个模型均具有较高的预测精度,适用于该区域的干旱趋势预测,但其中GM(1,1)模型不适用于江川农场的干旱年预测。(6)综合本文研究成果,并结合三江平原的自然地理条件、农业种植结构、水资源开发利用程度和抗旱管理水平等实际情况,因地制宜地制定相应的抗旱减灾对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sanjiang Plain, as one of nine major commodity grain production regions in China, plays a decisive role in the food security. But drought appeared frequently in the non-traditional drought region since 2000, and the situation was becoming more and more serious.Even though the water conservancy facilities were improved constantly. Because of lacking systematic drought research in Sanjiang Plain, drought is the most important factor of agricultural reducing output. Therefore, it is essential to research drought scientific and rational for making strategy to anti-drought to protect Sanjiang Plain’s sustained and stable development of national economy.(1)This paper introduce present drought related in Sanjiang Plain based on geographic and natural environment condition binding historical and real-time data. The authors took the annual precipitation of Hongxinglong Branch Bureau, in which 852 Farm of eastern, Beixing Farm of western and Jiangchuan Farm of middle, as the basic data, analyzed the multi-time scales variation characteristics with the application of a complex Morlet wavelet. At last, summarize drought cause according to analysis results and view of representative people.(2) According to principle of establishing evaluation index system, selected 3 indexes of departure ratio of rain-fall, Z index and homogenization of rain-temperature index as the basic index in this paper. The drought evaluation and analysis in Hongxinglong area are carried out, in which 852 Farm of eastern, Beixing Farm of western and Jiangchuan Farm of middle, and makes comparison between the results obtained through different indexes. The result indicates that the Z index serves a better way to analyze the drought.(3) This research established drought multiple-factors fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the fuzzy mathematics theory, and then got the synthetic drought index system in Hongxinglong Branch Bureau area to analyze the drought condition of this area in 2008, in which 852 Farm of eastern, Beixing Farm of western and Jiangchuan Farm of middle, and achieved reasonable results. Results showed that the practicability was validated in this area.(4) The model of projection pursuit drought evaluation based on artificial fish swarm algorithm was proposed to optimize the function and seek the optimum projection for solving the problems such as the discrete evaluation grade and low resolved results obtained by using other methods. In order to avoid local optimization and improve the global search ability and the convergence speed of the algorithm, the adaptive artificial fish step and crowded degree factor were applied to optimize artificial fish swarm algorithm. The departure ratio of rain-fall, Z index and homogenization of rain-temperature were selected to establish evaluation model of Sanjiang Plain based on above methods. The results showed that model effectively avoided the incompatibility of single index. It was feasible to evaluate actual drought situation of this region, and provide a new way for drought evaluation.(5) The rainfall of the three farmswas forecasted by using the weighted Markov chain and grey system theory. The results showed that the forecast value of weighted Markov chain and grey system theory, and the actual value were tallied, and these methods have high feasibility used to precipitation prediction.(6)To adjust measures to local conditions to fight the drought. Combing with natural and geological conditions, agricultural planting structure, crop out put level, water resource exploitation and utilization degree and management ability about preventing drought and decreasing disaster, worked out countermeasure for drought and disaster accordingly.更多还原