【作者】 胡红伟；

【导师】 张志清；

【作者基本信息】 武汉科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着手机在日常生活中应用越来越广泛,传统的2G手机已不能满足人们的需求,3G手机在这样的大环境下应运而生。而在这个新生的市场面前,有竞争也有风险,如何做好市场预测,已成为规划厂商产量和零售商销量关系的关键,决定着企业的长远发展和商家的成败。通过分析传统的市场预测,发现在实际预测中对信息的利用程度还不够完整,如何综合所得的信息,发挥信息的最大作用,具有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究首先分析了3G手机市场的特点,介绍了传统市场预测的一些方法,分析了他们的优缺点,对信息的预处理过程做了详细的数学描述,结合信息融合发展的最新进展,将市场信息看做是传感器获得的信息,利用多源信息融合的思想,采用处理不确定问题有很大优势的证据理论融合算法,给出了基于证据理论的多源信息融合在市场预测应用中的分布式融合模型,并给出了具体的预测步骤。最后,本论文结合湖北省一年内的3G手机市场销售情况,结合了定量预测的方法,通过给出的基于信息融合的预测模型,给出了下个月的销售量。本文很好的将主观和客观因素相结合起来,充分利用了市场信息,通过分析和比较预测结果,显示出本预测方法提高了市场预测精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 As mobile phones in daily life is more and more extensive, traditional 2G mobile already can’t satisfy people’s needs, 3G phones appeared under the such circumstances. But in the new market, there is competition also has a risk. How do market forecast, has become the key to the relationship between manufacturers of production and retailer of sales, determines the long-term development of the enterprise and business success.Through the analysis of the traditional market forecast method, we can get that these methods of utilization degree of information is not complete.How to synthesize these information, play their biggest role, is a typical uncertain problems.This research firstly analyzes the characteristics of 3G mobile-phone market, and introduces some method of traditional market forecast, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of them, describes the detailed pretreatment process of the information, combines the latest progress in the development of information fusion, takes market information as the sensor of information, using the thought of multi-source of information fusion and D-S evidence theory fusion algorithm which handles uncertainty have great advantages,gives the distributed fusion model of multi-source information fusion that used in market forecast based on D-S evidence theory,and gives the specific forecast steps.Finally, this paper integrates the sale of 3G mobile phone market in one year of Hubei province, combines the method of quantitative prediction, based on information fusion with the prediction model, given the sale of next month, which makes full use of the market information, improve the market forecast accuracy.The article union the subjective and objective factors, fully utilize the market information,the forecasting method improve the market forecast accuracy.更多还原