云南省城市化进程与耕地资源保护的协调性研究

【作者】 邓航；

【导师】 杨子生；

【作者基本信息】 云南财经大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 城市化是区域经济发展的核心和动力,耕地资源则是社会经济发展的自然资源基础。保障耕地资源与城市化的协调发展,调控区域人口、社会经济与耕地利用之间的矛盾在现代化发展中具有重要意义。认识城市化与耕地资源利用的相互关系和作用机制,是实施耕地资源保护政策与实现城市化与耕地资源协调发展的重要理论依据。在对城市化与耕地资源变化相互关系进行综述,系统分析城市化进程与耕地资源利用系统协调发展的理论基础,以及耕地资源利用系统变化的城市化正负双重效应及它们之间胁迫-约束双重机制的基础上,以1996~2008年云南省城市化与耕地资源利用变化的相互关系的为视角,重点研究它们之间协调发展与否的状态和趋势。结果显示:①1996~2008年,云南耕地资源变化较为复杂,其变化特征揭示了城市化对耕地资源的胁迫作用越来越明显,已成为耕地数量减小的主要驱动因素;②计量分析结果表明,城市化进程中,城市化水平、工业化水平、国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值、非农产值占GDP比重、非农产业从业人员比例6个指标与耕地资源数量变化的关系最密切,耕地面积净减少量与城市化水平具有倒“U”型规律,并且具有3-4年的周期变化;③云南省耕地资源与城市化水平的协调度值偏低,属于勉强调和状态,耕地资源勉强保持在承载力范围内,且变化也具有周期性。预测显示,至2020年,云南省耕地资源与城市化的协调度仍呈直线下降趋势,往不协调方向变化。耦合研究显示,云南省1996~2008年城市化综合发展与耕地资源利用的耦合度变化呈现周期性和阶段性的“U”型规律,由低水平良性协调发展状态过渡到当前的协调发展阶段,但未来将进入不协调发展状态;④未来要实现城市化与耕地资源利用的协调发展仍面临着诸多挑战,主要包括:由于总人口的继续增长,粮食安全压力较大;耕地资源利用中物质与科技投入不足;快速城市化进程对耕地资源的压力越来越大,保持耕地总量动态平衡的难度加大;⑤提出了实现城市化与耕地资源利用系统协调发展的调控措施,主要包括:实施可持续城市化发展战略是基础;土地开发、整理和复垦与城市支援农村、工业反哺农业相结合是主要途径;节约利用和集约经营是关键;土地生态建设与安全维护是重要环节;完善管理机制是支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urbanization is the heart and important driving force for regional economic development, while social and economic development is based on a certain amount and quality of cultivated land resources. It is therefore important for development of modernization to ensure the coordinated development between cultivated land resources and urbanization development, and adjust and control the contradiction among regional population, socioeconomic and cultivated land. To analyze their interrelations and mechanisms could also provide the theoretical basis for implementation of cultivated land protection and actualization of the coordinated development of urbanization and cultivated land use.This thesis reviewed the interrelations of urbanization and cultivated land use, systematically analyzed the theoretical basis for the coordinated development of them, and researched the affirmative and negative effect of cultivated land use change caused by urbanization and their stress-restriction mechanism. Based on them, taking Yunnan Province as an example, it has done the measurement analysis and coordination analysis between cultivated land area and urbanization from 1996 to 2008. It structured the relevance regression model and coupling model of them, and calculated their coordination degree and coupling degree to study their situation of coordinated development. The results are as follows:①The cultivated land resources in Yunnan Province has complex change in cultivated land type and increase or a decrease in quantity caused by all kinds of driving forces. Among the driving factors contributing to the change, the stress to cultivated land resources caused by urbanization is more and more obvious, and it has become the mainly driving force;②The quantitative analysis indicated that there is a strong correlation between cultivated land quantity and urbanization levels, industrialization levels, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita GDP, the proportion of output value of non-agricultural industry in the GDP, the proportion of employees in non-agricultural industry in Yunnan Province. A law of inverted U-shaped curvilinear with 3-4 years periodic change was found between net decrement of cultivated land area and urbanization levels;③The coordination degree determined by net decrement of cultivated land area and urbanization levels in Yunnan Province is low in general assuming the type of hardly concessions, and cultivated land resources are kept within the hardly concessions weight of force threshold value. And prediction results indicated that it still assumes the type of hardly concessions and a line downtrend by 2020. The coupling analysis reveals that the coupling degree determined by integrative development of urbanization and system of cultivated land resources use exhibits a law of U-shaped curvilinear with periodicity and stages, which transits from low-level benign consistentness to current coordination development, but it will be into inconsistentness state in the future;④The coordination development between urbanization and cultivated resources use in Yunnan Province will be faced with many challenges in the future, including: food security will be under greater stress because the total population continues to grow; there are not enough of material and technology input; due to increasing higher demand pressure to cultivated land resources in the progress of urbanization, the difficulty to keep total cultivated land dynamic equilibrium will expand in Yunnan Province.In order to actualize the coordination development between urbanization and cultivated land resources use in Yunnan Province, some measures are proposed including: the implementation of sustainable urbanization strategy is the foundation; the main way is to combine land exploitation and consolidation and land reclamation with cities supporting countryside and industry re-feeding agriculture; the key issue is to ensure the economical and intensive utilization of each cultivated land; the important step is to carry out land ecological construction and maintain land ecological security; the pillar is to improve management mechanism.更多还原