支持向量回归机在药品销售预测中的分析及应用

【作者】 王刚；

【导师】 王元亮；

【作者基本信息】 云南财经大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着数据库系统在现代企业中的广泛应用,使得企业信息化进程处于不断完善的阶段。然而,蕴藏在企业长期积累的大量数据中、对企业决策有利的“知识”并未得到有效地使用。数据挖掘技术的出现,恰恰解决了这种矛盾。目前数据挖掘技术研究应用到多个领域,涵盖的范围包括金融、电力、电信、交通等诸多领域。预测作为数据挖掘技术的一个重要组成部分也受到企业和研究学者的关注。在当今社会中,较为准确的预测具有重要的作用,它可以帮助企业或单位作出正确的决策从而带动其发展。对于销售行业尤显重要,对药品销售企业来说正确的预测,使企业能够合理的安排企业进销存,节约成本,达到利益最大化有着更为重要的意义。尽管预测十分重要,但要得到高质量的预测结果却并非易事。如何选取合适的数据挖掘技术就成为保证预测质量的基础。支持向量机作为数据挖掘中的新技术,基于结构风险最优化理论解决了其他技术的“过学习”现象,并运用核函数避免了“维数灾难”,并在多个领域预测中表现出不错的性能。本文主要通过对支持向量机的相关理论进行系统的阐述,针对药品销售行业,介绍了运用支持向量机的回归算法在药品销售问题上建立预测模型的步骤。使用相关软件进行仿真研究及实现预测模型,并强调了模型设计过程中销售数据的提取、预处理方法、模型验证等问题。希望对药品销售企业解决自身问题提供一定的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the wide application of database system in the modern enterprises, the enterprise informationization process is in the stage of continuous improvement. However, the "knowledge" contained in a mass of data accumulated by the enterprises, which is beneficial to enterprise decision, has not been used effectively. Data Mining is just brought to resolve this contradiction. It is currently applied to many fields covering finance, electric power, telecommunications, transportation and many others. As an important part of data mining, predication has caused the concern of the enterprises the researchers.In modern society, a relatively accurate predication plays an important role; it helps companies and units make the right decisions and thus promote their development. It is particularly important to the marketing industry. An accurate predication is very important to Medicament sales, for it enabling enterprises to reasonable arrangements for business invoicing, saving costs, maximizing the benefits. Although the prediction is very important, but high-quality prediction is not easy. How to select appropriate data mining techniques on the basis of a prediction quality assurance.As a new technology, Support Vector Machines in data mining based on structural risk optimization theory has solved the "over learning" phenomenon in other technology, used kernel function to avoid the "curse of dimension", and shown good predication Performance in many fields. In this paper, Support Vector Machines through a systematic exposition of the theory, for the pharmaceutical sales industry, introduces the use of Support Vector Machine regression algorithm to the problem of Medicament sales to establish prediction model of the steps. Use of relevant software simulation and implementation of forecasting models, and stressed that the model design process sales data extraction, preprocessing methods, model validation and other issues. Want to solve their own problems of Medicament sales companies to provide some reference. In this paper, through a systematic exposition of Support Vector Machines correlation theory , for the Medicament sales, introduces the steps of the construction of predication model by using Support Vector Machine regression algorithm. Used relevant software for simulation study and implementation of predication models, and stressed the methods of sales data extraction and preprocessing, model validation and other issues in model design process, Want to provide some references for solving the problems of Medicament sales.更多还原