【作者】 贺文宏；

【导师】 肖曼君；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 从1998年我国住房改革以来,房地产市场得到迅猛发展。房地产市场规模不断扩大,房地产价格也稳步上升,房地产产业已经成长为我国的重要产业。在房价以及股价等资产价格的带动下,近几年我国的物价总水平也开始逐渐上升,到2009年年尾我国房地产价格和物价指数还继续在双提升。同时随着资本市场的不断膨胀,房地产作为一种商品也开始具有实物资产和金融资产的双重属性。那么怎样在消费物价水平稳定的基础上合理健康地发展房地产市场,如何利用房地产价格中所包含的经济信息来比较准确的预测未来通货膨胀趋势,在通过这种适度的提前预测来有效提高我国货币政策执行的正确性和及时性,从而实现金融稳定和经济增长的远期目标?这个问题对于我国学者和政府来说都具有很好的理论和现实意义。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,对这一问题进行了理论探索和实证分析。本文首先介绍了房地产市场相关概念和我国房地产的发展情况。再次介绍通货膨胀预期的相关理论和我国通货膨胀情况,并分析通货膨胀预期和实际通货膨胀的关系。然后从理论上分析了房地产价格波动对通货膨胀预期的影响机制。在实证检验中运用计量经济学中的相关系数分析、平稳性检验、VEC模型中的协整分析、长短期格兰杰因果检验等方法对我国的数据进行了实证检验；从实证结果分析来看：在样本区间内我国房地产价格与通货膨胀预期和通货膨胀之间存在长期协整关系,而且它们之间是正向的协整关系。房地产价格和货币供应量、信贷总量、以及国民生产总值之间也存在正向的协整关系。另外可以看出房地产价格和利率呈负向的协整关系。格兰杰因果检也表明房地产价格与通货膨胀、通货膨胀预期的互为长期的格兰杰原因。最后本文从建立包含房地产价格的CPI指数、合理引导公众通货膨胀预期、完善房地产市场体系和货币市场利率体系合理引导房价等几个方面向我国中央银行提出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1998 chinese housing reform, the real estate market has been developing rapidly. the scale of the real estate market got continuous expandationg, real estate prices have increased steadily, the real estate industry has grown to an important industry in China. With the impact of house prices and stock prices and other asset prices, the general level of prices in China began to rise, To the second half of 2009 the house prices and prices index are still rise, at the same time,the capital market continuously expandding eventuallycause the real estate maket have the double Property of Physical assets and faniancial assets of Commodity. So, how to healthy development on the basis of reasonable real estate market in the stable consumer price level; how to use real estate prices which contain information to accuratly predict future inflation trends, then correctly and timely improving Monetary policy implementation through this modest prediction in advance, thereby achieving long-term financial stability and economic growth target? This question have a good theoretical and practical significance for Chinese scholars and governmentThis paper study real estate price impaction to Inflation expectations in theoretical and empirical on the basis of research at home and abroad, first introduced the theory of our real estate-related and state of real estate development.second, I introduced the theory of inflation expectations and the situation of inflation in China, then analyzed Relationship between the actual inflation expectations and inflation expectations. We also theoretically analyzed mechanismof real estate price volatility impactiong on the expected inflation, In the empirical test we use econometric analysis of correlation coefficients, stability test, VEC model cointegration, long and short term methods such as Granger causality to study our question through chinese data. From the empirical results we concluded that:the real estate prices and inflation expectations and inflation exist long term Cointegration relationship in the sample interval, Furthermore cointegration relationship is positive. Real estate prices with money supply, credit volume, and gross national product also have positive cointegration relationship. In addition we can see that real estate prices and interest rates were negative in the cointegration relationship. Granger test also shows that real estate prices and inflation exist long term two-way Granger causalityFinally, we put aforward policy to the People’s Bank of China from the aspect of the establishment of the CPI index includes real estate prices, a reasonable guide public inflation expectations, improving real estate market system and money market interest rate system, a reasonable guide to the price and so on.更多还原