【作者】 姚国鑫；

【导师】 彭辉；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 居民出行调查是指在调查区域内,对一定比例的市民一天内的出行特征(如出行强度、出行目的、出行方式、出行时间、出行起讫点等)、家庭属性、个人属性的调查,从而掌握城市交通出行总量、主要发生吸引源、时空分布、交通使用方式等资料。居民出行调查是交通规划中OD调查的重要内容,为交通需求预测和制定交通规划方案的提供基础交通数据,对城市综合交通规划和管理起重要作用。居民出行调查需要耗费大量的人力、物力和财力,调查内容广泛,组织工作难度较大,从前期的方案设计、宣传工作、调查员培训到后期的实施调查、数据处理,每一个环节都会影响整个调查工作的质量。本文主要从抽样技术和数据处理两方面进行研究,目的在于对现有的方法进行改进,以促进居民出行调查技术的完善。本文在分析常用的抽样调查方法的基础上,首先结合城市居民出行调查特点,提出了最优二重分层等距抽样方法,并根据数理统计原理和费用函数得出了最优模型,还对分层标志和分层数量进行了进一步探讨。然后通过对城市居民出行调查确定原则和调查目标的分析,以调查数据精确度要求为基础,来进行居民出行调查抽样率的设计,计算出了不同置信区间的抽样率,提出相应的参考值,并进行其敏感性分析,减少调查误差。再次通过对城市居民出行调查数据结果分析,可得其数据特点和分析方法,结合Access数据库特点建立西宁市居民出行调查数据管理系统,并进行相应的原始数据分析和校核扩样。最后将本文的抽样技术和数据分析方法应用于西宁市居民出行调查的具体实践中,取得了良好的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Resident trip survey will get the trip characteristics (such as trip frequency, trip purpose, trip mode, trip time, trip origin and destination points, etc.)、family property、personal property of a certain proportion of the population in the survey region one day, which grasps the dates such as the total urban traffic travel、the mainly trip generation and attraction source、temporal and spatial distribution、trip mode usage、etc. Resident trip survey is an important content of OD survey in traffic planning, which provides basic traffic data for the traffic demand forecast and the development of transportation planning programs plays an important role in urban integrated transport planning and management.Resident trip survey need takes huge human, material and financial resources, but also includes many links, from the preliminary design, publicity, training of investigators to the late implementation of the survey, data processing, every aspect will affect the whole quality, which requires implementation of the unit to fully consider every aspect of the relevant factors. This paper will research sampling technique and data processing, aims at improvement of existing methods and improves the resident trip survey technique.Firstly, on the base of used sample survey methods and the special permit of resident trip survey, this paper proposes the Optimal Two-Phase Equidistant Sampling, shows the optimal model based on principles of mathematical statistics and cost functions, further explores the hierarchical sign and hierarchical number. Then studying determined principles and investigation objectives of resident trip survey, this paper carries out design the sampling rate based on the requirement of survey data accuracy, inducts sensitivity analysis to reduce the risk of error. Following by the results analysis of resident trip survey data, this paper obtains data features and analysis. Combined features of Access database this paper sets up in Xining City resident trip survey data management system and corresponds expansion of the original data analysis and calibration sample. Finally, the sampling techniques and data analysis methods are used in Xining City resident trip survey practice, achieves good results.更多还原