【作者】 李璇琼；

【导师】 何政伟；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 土地资源是人类赖以生存、从事一切社会经济活动和休养生息的场所,也是社会经济可持续发展的基础。随着人口增长、粮食短缺、环境污染、气候变化等一系列全球性问题的日趋激化,人们加强了对土地利用变化监测的研究。土地也是人类活动与自然界交互作用的界面,土地利用变化一方面客观地记录了人类对大自然的干扰;另一方面,也是人类认识地球系统变化过程的基础;人类通过对与土地有关的自然资源的开发和利用,改变地球陆地表面的土地利用覆被状况,其不仅只对当地的生态环境产生影响,而且对区域的水循环、环境质量、生物多样性及陆地生态系统产生更为深刻和持久影响,进而影响到整个生态环境。土地利用变化研究是目前全球变化研究的前沿和热点课题,区域土地利用变化动态监测研究是土地利用变化研究的重要组成部分。应用遥感技术进行土地利用动态监测在我国己有近20多年的历史,动态监测目的有两个:一是利用遥感影像监测土地利用的动态变化情况;另一个是利用监测数据对影响土地利用变化过程、变化趋势进行分析。本文以都江堰市为例,利用1994年、2007年和2008年三期陆地资源卫星Landsat TM影像数据,采用遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)相结合的技术方法,对都江堰市14年来的土地利用变化情况进行了动态监测分析研究,具体通过土地利用转移概率、单一土地利用动态度、单一土地利用动态度双向模型、土地利用空间变化等模型,反映出都江堰市各种土地利用类型相互转换的变化情况(包括2007年到2008年地震中的土地灾毁情况),并利用马尔可夫模型预测了都江堰市未来65年来土地利用变化的趋势。在此基础上,进行了驱动力的分析,然后针对该地区土地利用中存在的问题提出了相应的合理化对策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land resource is basic for human survival、all human activities and build up strength,also foundation for socio-economic sustainable development.With population growth, food shortages, environmental pollution, climate variability and a series of global issues to increase, global change research has gradually increased land use / cover change research. Land is the interaction between human activities and natural interface. On the one hand, land use change is an objective record of the human disturbance to nature; on the other hand, change is basis of the human recognize process of earth system .Human change the Earth’s land surface cover conditions of the man and land through the development and utilization of natural resources, and its impact on the ecological environment is not only limited to local,but also make more profound affect to regional water cycle, environmental quality, biodiversity and productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, thereby affecting the whole environmentResearch on land use change is the frontier and the hot spots in the global change research, and research on regional land use change and its driving forces is one of the most important parts. The remote sensing technology has been applied in land use monitoring for more than 20 years in our country. The purpose of such dynamic monitoring method is two fold. One is to detect the dynamic variation of land use with the remotely sensed image. The other is to analyze the influencing factors of land-use changes, the dynamic process and its development trend as well. In this paper, we use Landsat TM image data of Dujiangyan in the year 1994、2007 and 2008 to finish the dynamic monitoring of land use change based on the methods of Remote Sensing(RS) and Geographic Information System(GIS).Moreover, the land use change development and the variation tendency for 14 years of Dujiangyan are analyzed and predicted by introducing the Models of of land use conversion matrix, single land use dynamic degree and single land use dynamic exchange degree .These models are applied to describe clearly the state of land use types which is in the inflation or degradation.during 1994-2008,including the land damage in earthquake. Then use Markov model has been used to predict the tendency of land use of Dujiangyan in the future 65 years .Based on this, analysed the driving influence. In the end, I put forward some solutions to the existing problems of land use change in Dujiangyan.更多还原