【作者】 邓佑甜；

【导师】 蒲艳萍；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 在地区经济发展存在明显差距的国家实行单一的货币政策,其政策效果必然在各地区产生较大的差异,这就是货币政策的区域效应。长期以来,我国实行的主要是全国统一的货币政策,一定程度上忽视了我国区域经济发展不平衡对货币政策的不同需求,货币政策的区域不对称性效应不可避免。本文在对货币政策区域不对称效应的理论进行回顾的基础上,首先运用蒙代尔最优货币区判别标准对我国是否属于最优货币区进行检验,得出的结论是:我国尚不属于最优货币区,从而判定我国货币政策存在区域不对称效应;然后,选取货币供应量作为货币政策的指示变量,利用基于向量自回归模型(VAR)的协整检验、脉冲响应、预测方差分解和基于可变参数的状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波(Kalman)等多种计量分析工具和手段对我国货币政策的区域不对称效应进行实证分析与检验,得出的基本结论是:①我国当前统一的货币政策在不同地区呈现出显著的不对称性效应。其中,货币政策对东部地区经济增长的效应最大,中部地区次之,西部地区最弱。②东部地区经济增长对货币供应量的响应速度最快,敏感度最大,中部地区次之,西部地区的敏感度最低;货币供应量对西部地区经济增长的解释力远远低于东、中部地区,且对西部地区经济的影响呈明显的滞后性。③货币政策对区域经济增长的边际贡献为西部地区最大,中部地区次之,东部地区最小。④我国货币政策区域不对称效应的主要原因是,我国东中西部地区经济发展不平衡,金融机构和金融市场发展严重失衡,信贷资源和金融深化程度不一,企业和居民行为存在差异,投资效率和产出水平不一致,使得货币政策主要传导渠道——信贷传导渠道的中介、载体、微观主体和目标结果等各环节都存在明显的地区差异,由此导致全国统一的货币政策不可避免地在各区域产生不对称效应。⑤提高货币政策区域有效性,缩小区域差异的对策包括:促进区域金融经济的协调发展;在保持货币政策统一性的前提下,实行灵活的货币调控政策;实施一定差异的金融监管政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 If implement the single monetary policy in a country where there is a great discrepancy in regional economic development, the great different effects of the policy in various regions are inevitable, which is the regional effects of monetary policy. For a long time, we implemented the single monetary policy and partly ignored the imbalance of regional economic development which called for different monetary policies, which results in the asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy in China.In this paper, after the review of the theory of asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy, firstly, we use the Mundell optimal currency area criterion to test whether China is an optimal currency area or not, and the result is that China is not an optimal currency area yet, which determine the existence of asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy in our country. Then, based on the co-integration test, impulse response and variance decomposition of the VAR Model and Kalman Filter of the State Space Model, we select money supply as the direct variable of monetary policy and analyze the regional effects of monetary policy in China. The result of empirical study shows that:①There exist manifest asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy in China.The monetary policy’s impacts on the economic growth in the eastern region is the strongest, followed by the central region, the western region is the weakest.②The economic growth of the eastern region responses to money supply fastest and has the highest sensitive, followed by the central region, the western region is the weakest; In the western region, the explanation of money supply to economic growth is far lower than the eastern and central region, and the impact was obvious lag.③The marginal contribution rate of monetary policy to the economic growth in the eastern region is the highest, followed by the central region, the western region is the lowest.④The asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy in our country is mainly due to the imbalance of economic development, financial institutions and financial market development, the difference of credit resources and degree of financial deepening, the discrepancy of behavior of businesses and residents, and the inconsistency of efficiency of investment and level of output in east, central and western regions of China. So there exist manifest regional discrepancy in the main transmission channel of monetary policy(the credit transmission channel),including the sections of intermediary, carrier,micro- economic main body and target, which results in the inevitable asymmetric regional effects of monetary policy in China.⑤The policy suggestions which can improve the regional effectiveness of monetary policy and narrow down the regional difference include promoting the coordinated development of regional financial and economics, implementing a flexible monetary control policy on the premise of the unity of monetary policy, and executing certain different financial regulatory policy.更多还原