【作者】 于娜莎；

【导师】 叶晓甦；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 21世纪,城市轨道交通在我国正面临前所未有的发展机遇,它将成为我国大中城市有史以来重要的基础设施建设项目。然而,我国传统、单一的政府财政投资方式面临着巨大的轨道交通建设资金需求,同时也限制了我国城市轨道交通的发展。为适应社会经济发展,在城市轨道交通建设中引入市场化的投融资方式已成为轨道交通发展的必然趋势。与其他融资模式相比,PPP的适用范围更广,优势更明显,在PPP模式中让公共部门和私营部门可以各自发挥自身的优势和经验,为公众提供更优质的公共产品或服务。但是,我国城市轨道交通项目应用PPP模式还处于初级阶段,如北京地铁四号线。而由于PPP项目具有投资大、建设周期长、参与方众多等特点,使项目存在很大的财务风险,如何降低或规避项目的财务风险,使项目顺利进行成为有待解决的一个重要问题。本文首先对我国现阶段城市轨道交通的发展模式及国内外发达地区城市轨道交通模式进行阐述和分析,结合我国现阶段城市轨道交通发展现状,得出了我国现阶段城市轨道交通发展的PPP模式。然后,对PPP模式下城市轨道交通项目各阶段现金流及现金流风险的分析,界定PPP项目的财务预警概念。结合财务预警方法、PPP评价方法及的挣值法的思想,确定PPP模式下城市轨道交通项目各阶段的财务预警指标,并确定财务预警指标的预警范围,通过对北京地铁四号线的案例,对财务预警指标体系的应用进行说明,从而更便于管理者对项目的管理和风险的控制。最后,通过图例对该预警指标体系的具体应用进行详细说明,以便于实践中管理者对PPP模式下城市轨道交通项目的有效管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 21st century, urban rail transport is facing an unprecedented opportunity for development in our country. It will become major infrastructure construction projects in China medium-sized cities’history. However, traditional and single way of the government investment in rail transit construction is facing a huge financial funding needs, but also limits the development of China’s urban rail transit. In order to meet socio-economic development in urban rail transit construction, the introduction of market-oriented investment and financing has become an inevitable trend in the development of rail transportation.Compared with other financing model , PPP model has been applicated broader scope and has more obvious advantage. It allows the public and private sectors play their strengths and experience to provide high-quality public goods or services. However, the application of PPP model in urban rail transit of China has just started, such as the Beijing Metro Line. And there is a big financial risk, because PPP projects have a long construction period, it not only has large investment ,but also has many participants,. how to reduce the financial risk of PPP project ,then make the project proceed smoothly has become an important issue.In this paper, It will analyze urban rail transport modes in China and abroad. Combination of China’s urban rail transit development at this present stage to arrived at urban rail transit PPP model in china.Then, It will analyze cash flow and cash flow risk of urban rail transit project in all stages and define the concept of financial early-warning about PPP project. Combination of the financial early-warning approach, PPP evaluation methods and the idea of the earned value method ,It will determine the financial early-warning indicators of urban rail transport projects in PPP mode and the scope of the financial early-warning indicators in order to help manager manage project and control risk.Finally, It explain the specific application details of the early-warning indicator system by Legend in order to practice managers manage urban rail transport projects in the PPP mode effectively.更多还原