【作者】 赵盟；

【导师】 王书肖；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 环境科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 空气质量问题是北京奥运会能否成功举办的关键问题之一。为此,北京市政府发布了《北京市2008奥运空气质量保障方案》,严格控制奥运期间的大气污染物排放量。为了评估保障方案中各项措施改善空气质量的有效性,需要对北京奥运期间空气质量保障措施实施的污染物减排量进行科学分析。本研究综合利用污染源调查法与排放因子法,基于北京市社会经济发展情况,考虑北京市2006年²008年的大气污染控制措施,分别建立了北京市2007年7月、2008年6月（奥运前）以及奥运期间的SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、CO和VOC分部门排放清单,分析了大气污染物的减排效果,并采用区域多尺度空气质量模式（CMAQ）模拟奥运前以及奥运期间的空气质量。2007年7月,北京市SO₂、NOX、PM₁₀、CO和VOC的日均排放量分别为147.4 t、519.0 t、410.8 t、3496.6 t和927.2 t。通过严格控制电厂、工业源、移动源和无组织扬尘源的污染物排放,2008年6月北京市上述五种主要污染物的日均排放量分别削减了43.5 t、90.5 t、48.1 t、27.4 t和37.2 t。奥运期间（7月20日⁸月6日、8月10日²7日）,关停建材企业可使其SO₂排放量减少85%;机动车单双号限行可使其排放的NOX、CO和VOC等污染物减少46%～57%;施工扬尘控制和工业源排放控制分别占奥运期间PM₁₀总减排量的35%和34%;VOC的控制主要来自机动车限行和无组织VOC减排。奥运期间北京市的SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、CO和VOC的日均排放量分别为61.6 t、229.1 t、164.3 t、1703.7 t和381.8 t,比2008年6月下降了41%、47%、55%、51%和57%。开幕式期间（8月7日⁹日）,由于放假等强化措施的实施,五种主要污染物排放量进一步削减1%、14%、9%、19%和15%。基于上述排放清单,利用CMAQ模型对奥运前和奥运会期间北京市PM₁₀/PM_2.5、NO₂和O₃的浓度进行了模拟。模拟结果与监测值的比较表明,本研究建立的大气污染源清单和减排效果评估结果是可信的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Air quality has been one of the vital concerns for the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008. Beijing municipal government announced an "Air Quality Guarantee Plan for the 29th Olympics in Beijing" to strictly control air pollutants emissions. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the guarantee plan, this thesis scientifically analyzed the air pollutants emission reduction of each measure during the 29th Olympiad in Beijing.Using emission sources investigation method and emission factor method, this study developed the emission inventories of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, CO and VOC in July 2007, June 2008 （pre-Olympics） and August 2008 （during Olympics）, respectively, based on the socio-economic development and air pollution control measures in Beijing. The emission reductions of the five primary air pollutants were evaluated and the air quality pre-Olympics and during Olympics were simulated using Community Multi-scale Air Quality （CMAQ） model.The daily emissions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, CO and VOC in Beijing in July 2007 were 147.4 t, 519.0 t, 410.8 t, 3496.6 t and 927.2 t, respectively. In June 2008, emission control of power plants, industries, mobile sources and fugitive dusts reduced the daily emissions of SO₂ 43.5 t, NO_x 90.5 t, PM₁₀ 48.1 t, CO 27.4 t and VOC 37.2 t from the July 2007 baseline.During summer Olympics （July 20 - August 6, August 10 - 27）, closedown of the building material enterprises reduced 85% of their SO₂ emissions. Mobile emission control rule that vehicles with even and odd plate number run on alternate days reduced 46% to 57% of their NO_x, CO and VOCs emissions, respectively. Fugitive dust emissions from building construction sites and industrial sources contributed 35% and 34% of the total PM₁₀ reductions, respectively. VOCs reductions were mainly from the control measures of mobile sources and fugitive VOC sources. During summer Olympics, the daily emissions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, CO and VOC in Beijing were 61.6 t, 229.1 t, 164.3 t, 1703.7 t and 381.8 t, which were 41%, 47%, 55%, 51% and 57% lower than those in June 2008. During the Olympic Opening Ceremony （6 - 8 August）, the daily emissions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, CO and VOC in Beijing were further reduced by 1%, 14%, 9%, 19% and 15%, respectively.Based on the developed emission inventories, CMAQ model was applied to simulate the ambient concentrations of PM₁₀/PM_2.5, NO₂ and O₃ in Beijing pre-Olympics and during Olympics. Comparison of the simulation results and the environmental monitoring data showed that the developed emission inventories and the evaluation of the emission reductions in this study were reasonable.更多还原