【作者】 庞佳宁；

【导师】 杨超；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 中部地区位于我国的核心地带,在我国的经济社会发展中具有非常重要的地位。国家领导也多次在报告中提出要“促进中部地区崛起”,把中部地区建成为我国重要的物流、商流、信息流集散地。中部地区有着较为优越的地理区位优势,但发展上仍然受到经济条件的制约。目前物流建设的速度正在稳步提升,但是交通网络及物流服务水平仍与发达国家及东部发达地区存在较大的差距。快速有效的发展中部地区的物流产业,对促进中部地区的崛起有着至关重要的作用。本文将采用理论与实证相结合的方法,分析中部地区的物流现状,研究影响中部地区物流需求的主要因素,选择选择人工神经网络作为预测方法,对中部地区的物流规模需求和结构需求进行合理预测,并分析相关预测数据的合理性和有效性,为中部地区未来一定时期内的物流系统规划提供理论依据。本文首先对物流需求预测进行理论研究,通过对比来分析有效的物流需求预测指标,介绍神经网络相关理论,总结BP神经网络的不足之处和改进方法,说明将神经网络应用于物流需求预测的可行性和优越性;其次进行中部地区物流需求预测的指标体系设计,研究中部地区的经济和物流发展现状,分析区域物流需求的量化指标,选择具有代表作用的指标作为我们的预测指标,收集历史数据,进行相关性分析,构建相应的预测指标体系;再次,根据物流规模需求和物流结构需求预测的不同指标体系,建立不同的神经网络,根据构建的预测网络预测未来三年的物流需求,将传统的需求预测方法与通过神经网络预测得到的数据进行对比分析,确定神经网络预测方法的优越性和准确性,分析BP神经网络的改进算法,进行算法的调整分析,建立改进的神经网络后对今后三年的中部地区货运量进行需求预测,并分析结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The central region as the belly heart of the whole country, it is a quite important position to occupy in national development of social and economic. The leaders of the Central Party Committee, propose“promoting the central region to emerge”in the report more than once, which make great efforts to build central region into the national important granary, important base of energy and raw materials, national important distributing centre of logistics, trade and information flow. The construction speed of the logistics infrastructure in the central region is being accelerated. Now it has already formed the preliminary and perfect comprehensive traffic network, but compared with developed country and developed area of the east region of our country still has greater disparity. Effective development of central region’s logistics industry is quite important for the promotion of the emergence and utilize of geography and environmental resources of the central region.This text will adopt the method which combines with theory and real example, will analyze the logistics current situation of the central region, and research the main factor which influence the logistics demand in the central region. Then we choose the artificial neural network as the method to predict the demand of scale and structure of logistics demand in the middle part rationally. Then we analyze the accuracy and effectiveness of the predicted data which can offer the theoretical foundation for the logistics system plan in the future of central region.This text carries on the theoretical research to the requirement forecasting of the logistics at first, choose the effective indicators for logistics requirement forecasting, then introduce the relevant theory of the neural network, summarize the weakness and improvement method of BP neural network, prove the feasibility and superiority for applying the neural network to the requirement forecasting of logistics. Second, we design the index system for logistics requirement forecasting of central region, then study the current situation of the development of logistics and economy and analyze the quantization index of the regional logistics demand, choose the representative indicators. We can collect the historical data, analyze the relevance and structure the corresponding prediction indicators system. Third, we can build different neural networks according to different indicators system of logistics scale demand and structure requirement forecasting. Moreover, we can predict the following three years according and compare the data result using the traditional requirement forecasting method with the neural network which can confirm that the neural network can predict the superiority and accuracy of the method. Later, we should analyze the improvement algorithm of BP neural network and use the adjusted algorithm to forecast the volume of goods transported of central region of the following three years.更多还原