【作者】 王晶晶；

【导师】 顾六宝；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 统计学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 能源是人类社会发展必不可少的物质基础。农村能源建设是新农村建设的重要内容之一,是农村居民的基本需求。党中央在“十一五”规划中,提出大力发展农村能源建设。北京农村地区不合理的能源利用结构,严重影响了农村能源建设,影响生活环境,制约了农村社会、经济、环境的和谐发展。因此,使以可再生能源为主的农村能源建设和发展问题越来越受到人们的普遍关注,成为可持续发展战略的主要组成部分和北京农村经济新的增长点与动力。本文运用统计学分析和建模方法,并将定性和定量分析相结合,对北京市农村能源消费状况进行统计分析。文章从能源消费总量和结构两方面对北京市农村地区的能源消费现状做了综合分析,在此基础上,分析了影响北京市农村能源消费状况的因素,并对影响因素做了重要性评价,得出人均纯收入是影响北京农村能源消费的最主要因素。鉴于能源系统的复杂性,在预测分析时,比较分析了趋势外推预测模型和灰色动态预测模型,根据预测模型的相对误差最小原则,最终采用GM(1,1)模型对北京市“十二五”期间农村能源消费总量做了预测分析。最后,提出了适合北京地区农村能源发展的政策建议:建立健全政策法规;科学制定规划;转变能源结构,建立合理的能源价格体系;加大宣传,合理开发可再生能源;加大农村能源投入力度,拓宽资金渠道;加大科研工作,构建完善服务体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The energy is essential material base on the human society development. Rural energy construction is the important content of building a new countryside and one of the basic needs of rural residents. In the "Eleventh Five-Year" plan, the government put forth great efforts to develop rural energy construction. The energy consumption structure in rural areas of Beijing is unreasonable, which has seriously affected the construction of rural energy, influenced the living environment and restricted the development of rural society, economy and environment in harmony. Therefore, the development of the rural renewable energy is becoming more and more important. It has been the main part of the sustainable development and the new growth point and momentum of rural economic.In this paper, we use statistical analysis and modeling methods. Meanwhile, we combine qualitative and quantitative analysis method to analyze Beijing rural energy consumption. Based on a comprehensive analysis of rural energy consumption from energy total consumption and structure, we analyze the importance of factors affecting the energy consumption, and we evaluate the importance of the factors. We reach the conclusion that the rural per capita net income is the most important factor. In view of the complexity of energy systems, when we forecast, we through comparison and analysis of the trend extrapolation method and gray dynamic model, according to the relative error of prediction model minimum principle, GM(1,1) model is the eventual adoption to predict the total energy consumption in Beijing rural areas during "Twelfth Five-Year". Finally, we put forward some suitable policy recommendations for Beijing rural energy development : establish policies and regulations; make scientific plans; change the energy structure and establish a rational energy pricing system; increase the propaganda and do rational development of renewable energy; increase rural energy input and broaden the funding sources; increase research, build and consummate a service system.更多还原