【作者】 贾荣铭；

【导师】 印恒明；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 软件工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年,信息灾难导致公司利益受损甚或公司倒闭的实例不胜枚举。鉴于这些巨额损失,很多企业、机关、事业单位纷纷步入灾备研究领域,开始了自己的灾备计划,甚至开始了对灾难本身的研究。但是,日积月累的高昂研究费用和不见起色的灾难研究,很多单位又相继步出了灾备研究领域。鉴于高昂的研究费用和基于事后补救措施的灾备研究方法,大多数企业、机关、事业单位采取了被动的态度,找第三方给自己搭建灾备基础设施,在灾后再联系第三方解决恢复问题。针对以上问题,本文将灾备研究策略提到灾难发生前,而非仅仅在事后采取补救,对灾难预测和灾难过程中的信息模拟进行了分析与研究,并基于此对信息灾难模拟器的设计与实现进行了探讨,提出了一种基于随机预测的分布式灾难模拟方法并在此基础上构建了一个信息灾难模拟器。该模拟器能够在给定某种灾难(如地震、洪水、火灾或者病毒攻击)及其烈度的情况下,自动模拟此种灾难对信息系统的影响及其演变,以给决策者提供重要的参考信息,最大程度上减轻灾难的影响。同时,完成无人值守时的自动预警,自动采取措施,以停止灾难延续或者减少灾难带来的损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, there were numerous examples that the company’s interests were severely affected and closure of corporations is witnessed due to the information disaster. In view of these huge losses, many companies, institutions, research institutions have entered the field of disaster recovery to start their own disaster recovery plans, and even embarked on a disaster research. However, with the increasing research cost but few improvement in disaster research, many units have stepped out of the Disaster Recovery field of study. In view of the high research cost and remedial measures for disaster recovery based on research methods, the majority of enterprises, institutions, and institutions adopted a passive attitude. They are looking for a third party to build its own disaster recovery infrastructure, which means that they contact a third party to resolve after the disaster.To solve the problems mentioned above, the research strategy of disaster recovery will be placed before the disaster, not only remedy the disaster after the disaster happens. This paper analyzes the information simulation in the process of disaster forecasting. Meanwhile, the paper explores the design and realization of information disaster simulator which is based on what have been discussed above and proposed a distributed disaster prediction based on random simulation methods and on this basis, the paper aims at building an information disaster simulator. Given certain disasters (such as earthquakes, floods, fires, or virus attacks) with its intensity, the simulator can automatically simulate the impact of such a disaster on the information systems and its evolution in order to provide an important reference for decision-makers. More importantly, the simulator is to reduce the impact of disasters to the maximum extend. Meanwhile, the simulator is able to achieve the completion of the automatic warning when it is in unmanned situation, it will take measures automatically to stop the continuation of a disaster or reduce disaster losses as well.更多还原