【作者】 魏海蕊；

【导师】 董明；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人类对能源的日益依赖,以及传统集中式供能弊端的暴露,寻求支撑人类文明进程的新型能源体系,已成为全球亟待解决的问题。分布式能源系统因其能源利用效率高,环境负面影响小,能源供应可靠性高和经济效益好的特点,被誉为“解决能源问题的金钥匙”,成为新型能源系统中的核心技术。因此,从能源供应链角度,对分布式能源供能网络的规划和运作鲁棒性评估及优化的研究,可为分布式能源系统的有效应用提供参考和建议,具有重要意义。本文在前人成果和前期研究基础上,重点研究了分布式能源供能网络的规划以及突发事件下分布式能源供应链整体及其各个环节的运作鲁棒性评估与优化问题。试图为一定地理区域有效地利用分布式能源系统,建立高效能、低成本、安全可靠的能源供应网络提供思路和参考。针对分布式能源系统“需求侧管理”的特点,依据区域客户电能、热能的波动需求量,以双层规划为理论基础,以区域供能总成本最低为目标,建立了区域分布式能源系统网络构建的双层规划模型。分别对区域分布式能源系统的位置、数量、产能、需求点归属以及热能输送网络进行了规划。有针对性的提出了基于K-means聚类的禁忌搜索和基于扫描法的模拟退火混合启发式算法。在禁忌搜索算法中,引入邻域结构动态变化和突发机制以避免陷入局部最优。数值实验证明了该算法的良好效果。同时,通过与同条件下采用集中供能所用成本的对比,证明了用双层规划进行区域分布式能源供能网络规划的良好效益。研究中将不可运作性输入输出模型(Inoperability Input-Output Model, IIM)创新性地应用于不安全环境下分布式能源供应链的运作鲁棒性评估和优化方面。并根据供应链节点间相互关系影响因素的特点,提出新的基于有序加权平均(Ordered Weighted Averaging, OWA)算子的相互关系矩阵评价方法,对原IIM的相互关系矩阵评价方法进行了改进。IIM不仅可以评估出突发事件对分布式能源供应链运作水平的直接影响而且可以评估由节点间相互依赖关系引起的在节点间传递和蔓延的间接影响。本文分别以“不可运作性”和“经济损失”为鲁棒评价指标,评价了不安全环境下分布式能源供应链各节点的运作鲁棒性,在对评估结果分析的基础上,提出相应鲁棒优化措施,并用IIM分析了优化措施的效果。通过基于蒙特卡洛的EXTEND仿真分析,验证了IIM在分布式能源供应链中应用的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing reliance on energy and the exposed disadvantages of the traditional centralized energy supply system, how to find out a new energy system has become the world’s problem to be solved. Due to the high efficiency of energy use, small environmental negative impacts, high reliability of energy supply and good economic benefits, distributed energy system (DES) has been hailed as a golden key to solve the energy problems and has become the core technology in the new type energy systems. Thus, from the perspective of the energy supply chain, it is very significant to study on the planning and the robust operation of the distributed energy supply chain network, which could provide the reference and recommendations for the efficient use of the DES.This paper focuses on the planning of the distributed energy supply network and the robust operation of the DES supply chain under unsafe environment. And the research tries to provide the suggestions and reference for the efficient use of the DES and for developing energy supply networks with high efficiency, low cost and high reliability.Based on the theory of Bi-level Programming, according to the fluctuant power and heat demand of customers in a region, taking the minimum cost of the regional DES construction and operation as objective function, a bi-level programming model for the regional DES network construction is formulated. The model is used to deal with distributed energy supply network planning problems including the number, capacity and location of the energy suppliers, the ownership of the customers and the heat convey network optimal planning.A hybrid algorithm of a tabu search algorithm combined with k-means algorithm and a simulated annealing algorithm combined with scanning algorithm has been provided to solve the bi-level programming model. Dynamic change and mutation is added into neighbor structure of the tabu search algorithm in order to get overall optimum. At last a testing experiment platform with C# is developed to verify the validity of the algorithm through experiments. The results of the computational experiment have indicated that the proposed algorithm is effective. According to the energy supply cost comparison with the traditional centralized energy supply system, the good benefit of the planning method in this paper is indicated.The Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) is deployed for assessing the impacts of disruptive events on DES supply chain networks under unsafe environment. And according to the characteristics of the influencing factors of relationships among nodes in supply chain, a new method called OWA Operator is formulated to evaluate the interdependency matrix of the IIM. The IIM for DES supply chain networks is capable of describing the propagation effects of disruptions to interdependent supply chain components. The“inoperability”and“economic losses”metrics have been used to assess the impacts of disruptions to DES supply chain networks. An example DES supply chain network is used to illustrate the application of IIM for systemic risk assessment of supply chains under unsafe environment. And a risk mitigation strategy has been considered to reduce the adverse effects. In addition, a simulation model integrated with Monte Carlo simulation method has been developed to validate the accuracy of the IIM for DES supply chain.更多还原