居民医疗支出影响因素的实证分析

【作者】 徐润；

【导师】 周伟林；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 区域经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着改革开放和经济发展,居民生活水平有了很大的提高,但同时居民的医疗负担也越来越重。不仅如此,城乡二元化和城市化、政府医疗政策和医疗资源供给、老龄化等现象也会影响居民对医疗服务的需求。为研究这些问题,本文以Grossman的健康资本需求模型为理论基础,采用国家统计年鉴2003～2008年的省级面板数据,对居民医疗支出与相关影响因素的关系进行分析。在模型的选择上,根据前人的文献,本文采用了在测量收入弹性的同时考虑其他影响因素的实证分析方法。并且,在前人研究的基础上,本文根据现实情况对城镇和农村分别进行回归以分析其差异,并加入了城市化、出生率、政府预算卫生支出等变量,以使得对我国居民医疗支出影响因素的研究更为准确。研究结果发现,城乡居民医疗支出的收入弹性确实存在差异,且最终结果农村高于城市：城市居民医疗支出收入弹性的最终结果为0.68,农村居民医疗支出收入弹性的最终结果为1.23。同时,考虑供需因素后收入弹性有了更准确的结果。在测量收入弹性的同时,本文发现城市化指标与城乡居民的医疗支出均显著正相关。出生率指标、平均住院时间长度指标与城镇居民的医疗支出显著正相关,与农村居民医疗支出的关系不显著。而老龄化指标、医生数指标与城镇居民医疗支出的关系不显著,与农村居民的医疗支出显著正相关。教育指标、政府预算卫生支出指标则与城乡居民医疗支出的关系均不显著。根据这些结果,本文在进行相应的分析后提出如下建议：政府应整合城乡医疗资源、促进城乡医疗保险一体化、合理提高政府卫生投入力度、重视农村老龄化问题、并合理促进城市化。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the reform and opening up, the inhabitant’s standard of living has improved to a large extent, but the burden of medical expenditure has also enhanced; in addition, situation such as the urban-rural dual economic structure, urbanization, transition of medical policies and population aging have significant influence on medical service demand. To study these, the paper employing panel data from 31 China provinces between 2003 and 2008 to analysis medical expenditure and its influencing factors. For the model, the paper employs the empirical method of measuring income elasticity while considering other factors. Furthermore, the paper employs regression for urban and rural areas, adds variables such as urbanization rate, birth rate, government budget, which make the research of medical expenditure more accurate.The research outcome shows that the urban area has an elasticity of 0.68 and the rural area has an elasticity of 1.23.While measuring income elasticity, the paper finds the coefficient estimate of urbanization are statistically positive significant with both urban and rural medical expenditure. Birth rate and length of stay in hospital are statistically positive significant with urban medical expenditure. And the population aging and number of doctors are significant positive with rural expenditures. Education and government medical budget are not significant with either rural or urban expenditure.更多还原