美国金融危机对中国对外出口影响的传导机制

【作者】 谢碧霞；

【导师】 尹翔硕；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 2007年的美国次贷危机引发了国际金融危机,对中国对外出口造成了较大的负面影响。中国是一个贸易依存度很大的经济体,出口目前仍是经济增长的最大支柱,因此,出口的受阻必然影响宏观经济的发展,本文以此次美国金融危机对中国对外出口影响的传导机制为主题进行研究,旨在可以通过分析危机影响中国对外出口的路径,抓住导致对外出口受影响的主要经济变量,从而有效控制和隔离危机影响,对今后减小金融危机损失提供可供参考的依据。本文采用定性与定量并行,理论结合实证等研究方法,利用截至2009年12月的最新数据,在危机对中国对外出口影响的事实基础上,分析和验证了美国金融危机对中国对外出口影响的传导机制。首先,从出口总量、出口行业、出口方式、出口环境、出口市场、出口主体等各方面,较全面地描述了美国金融危机对中国对外出口贸易影响的情况；接着,从理论角度分析了美国金融危机对中国对外出口贸易影响的原因和传导机制,得出结论：美国金融危机会影响人民币汇率、中国贸易伙伴国国民收入、中国贸易伙伴国失业率、中国贸易伙伴国股市总市值,从而分别带来价格效应、收入效应、政策效应、预期效应,对中国对外出口造成负面影响。同时,本文通过实证模型检验了以上四大效应中对应传导变量在危机中变化的程度,以及其变化对中国对外出口造成的影响程度,进一步验证了文章的结论。文章最后部分针对传导机制的4个路径提出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 American subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis, which had a large negative impact on Chinese exports. China is an economy with high trade dependence. Export is still the major source of China’s economic growth. Therefore, it is undoubted that declined export will result in declined economic growth. This paper is to study the transmission mechanism of American financial crisis’ impact on China’s exports, which is intend to seize the key variables and affected way to reduce losses in financial crisis.In this paper, the major research methods adopted include qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, etc. The paper describes the impact of the crisis on the fact that China’s exports, and then analyzes and verifies the transmission mechanism, with the newest data update to Dec.2009. Firstly, a comprehensive description of the American financial crisis on China’s exports, from aspects of total exports, export industries, export mode, export environment, export markets, export enterprise and so on. Secondly, a theoretical analysis on the reasons and transmission mechanism. The conclusion is:the crisis affects the RMB Exchange Rate, trading partners’ National Income, trading partners’ Unemployment Rate, and trading partners’Total Stock Market Value, which will correspondingly, brings the Price Effect, Income Effect, Policy Effect, and Expectation Effect. All are negative factors to China’s exports. Meanwhile, this conclusion passes the empirical tests. Finally, in the last part of the paper,4 policy recommendations are proposed according to the 4 paths in the transmission mechanism.更多还原