苏联解体以来俄罗斯对欧美力量东扩的军事回应及策略

【作者】 杜础圻；

【导师】 赵华胜；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际政治， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 冷战结束,苏东集团解体之后,东欧亲苏俄政权纷纷下台,俄罗斯在东欧的势力范围一夜消失,对俄罗斯的军事战略有极大的影响。苏东的解体使俄罗斯在东欧没有了缓冲地带,在中亚及外高加索也与以往苏联时期直接掌握有着极大的不同。与此同时,欧美国家在开始对这些地区进行势力扩张,例如北约东扩及东欧国家加入欧盟等。而美国在中亚地区也有驻军并和其他区内国家进行军事合作。欧美的东扩令俄罗斯感受到威胁。由于俄罗斯一向以来均为军事大国,因此军事方面的回应成为俄罗斯对抗欧美力量东扩的重要手段。为了对抗欧美的东扩,俄罗斯在俄罗斯欧洲地区、高加索及中亚这三个与欧美力量有接触的地区有着不同的军事部署。在俄罗斯欧洲部份,俄罗斯主要是针对东欧国家加入北约而进行相应的响应。在高加索则是针对与亲欧美的格鲁吉亚所发生的边境纠纷而作出相应的军事行动。在中亚,则是为了应付在911事件之后欧美在区内国家的驻军。除了部署之外,俄罗斯为了对扩欧美力量的东扩也进行过两次实际的军事行动。第一次为1999年北约轰炸南斯拉夫之后,俄罗斯在没有事先通知北约的情况之下,派兵抢占科索沃首府的机场,使得俄军与北约形成对峙局面。第二次便为2008年的俄格战争,俄军对亲欧美的格鲁吉亚进行军事打击。这使得俄罗斯与欧美,特别是美国的关系非常紧张。而对于美国希望在东欧部署反导系统一事,俄罗斯更是强烈地反对。俄罗斯认为这系统会影响到俄罗斯对美国的战略核打击能力,而核打击能力可以说是俄罗斯全球战略中的根本。为了反对美国的计划,俄罗斯作了很多相应的行动,如要在与北约接壤的飞地加里宁格勒部署弹道导弹及威胁波兰将会受到来打击等。而面对欧美力量的东扩,俄罗斯在军事发展上也作出了相应的调整。由于俄罗斯在90年代的经济十分低迷,所以俄罗斯的军事科技发展更需要针对应付欧美力量东扩而作出调整。俄罗斯基本上集中资源去发展战略核武的战力,例如优先发展战略洲际弹道导弹等。而在战略思想方面,俄罗斯在全球进行了战略收缩,以集中在本土周边应付欧美力量东扩。而俄罗斯也鉴于自身的常规战力不及北约,所以俄罗斯调整了其核武的使用原则,降低了使用门坎,也更重视了战术核武。降低了核武的使用原则可以使俄罗斯常规部队在局部战争中未能击退入侵敌人的时候也可以使用核武来击退敌人。除此之外,俄罗斯也重视周边地区的区域联盟,以巩固俄罗斯在这些地区的影响力。综观俄罗斯联邦成立的这二十年来,俄罗斯与欧美的关系时有起伏,其原因为即使俄罗斯基本上倾向于与欧美合作,但其对自己势力范围的认知与现实有差距,这使得当欧美扩张其势力时俄罗斯感到不满。只要俄罗斯对自己势力范围的认知与现实符合,俄罗斯与欧美的关系便会处于长期合作的状态。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the end of cold war and the collapse of the Eastern Europe Communist regimes, Russia lost its sphere of influence at one night. This made a serious effect on the Russia’s strategy. The collapse of the Eastern Bloc resulted in the lost of buffering zone of Russia in Eastern Europe. The situation in Central Asia and Transcaucasia was also hugely different from that of the era of Soviet direct control. At the same time, the Western countries started to enlarge their influence in these areas, but Russia felt threatened by such movement. Because Russia had always been a great military power, therefore military responses were the Russian crucial methods to deal with the enlargement of the West.To counter the West, Russia had different military deployments in Russian Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia. These various deployments were for the joining NATO of Eastern Europe countries, the border dispute with pro-western Georgia and the deployment of U.S. military in Central Asia after 911.Beside the deployments, Russia also launched military action to counter the West’s eastward enlargement. The first time was the capturing of the airport of the capital of Kosovo after the NATO bombing to Yugoslavia without informing the NATO. The second time was the Russia-Georgia war. The Russian strike to the pro-western Georgia tensed up the relationship between Russia and the West, especially the United States.Russia desperately objected the U.S. planning of deploying missiles defense system in the Eastern Europe. Russia deemed this missiles defense system will threaten the capacity of Russian strategic nuclear strike, and this capacity was the core of Russian global strategy. Russia took many actions to counter the U.S. plan, including deploying missiles in Kaliningrad and threatening Poland it would be struck by nuclear weapons.Russia also changed its military developments to deal with the Western eastward enlargement. Because of the bad economic situation in 1990s, Russia had to concentrate its resources to develop strategic nuclear capacity, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles. In the strategic concept, Russia carried out global strategic retreat to concentrate its power to deal with the West’s enlargement. Russia also acknowledged its conventional forces was inferior to NATO, so it changed the principles of using nuclear weapon. Russia lowered the threshold of using nuclear weapons that it could use nuclear weapon to repulse the enemy when its conventional forces failed to do so in a regional war. Russia also valued the regional alliance; it could consolidate Russian influence in the region.In the twenty years history since the establishment of the Federal of Russia, the Russia’s relationship with the West has gone up and down. It is because even though Russia tends to cooperate with the West, the Russian perception of its own sphere of influence does not match the reality. This made Russia resented when the West enlarged their influence to the east. When Russian perception of its own sphere of influence matches the reality, the relationship between Russia and the West will become long term cooperative.更多还原