中国进出口商品价格弹性研究

【作者】 郝结旺；

【导师】 强永昌；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际经济与贸易， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的增长与对外贸易的扩大,我国的贸易顺差逐步扩大,人民币也面临着前所未有的升值压力,尽管自05年以来,人民币已经有较大幅度的升值,但是人民币的升值压力依然不减,本文从价格弹性方面来对中国的进出口进行研究,指出并非人民币升值就能解决中国的贸易顺差问题。本文在吸收前人研究成果的基础上,从宏观、中观及微观三个方面来研究我国的商品出口价格弹性,从而为解决我国的贸易争端提出可行的方案。本文的第一部分是研究意义和背景,第二部分是文献综述部分,第三、四、五部分分别从三个方面来研究我国商品的出口价格弹性,最后给出政策建议。通过本文的研究,我们发现我国的总体进出口都是缺乏价格弹性的,即不满足马歇尔——勒纳条件,但是对不同的行业而言,情况并不相同,我国的纺织服装行业是富有弹性的,但是其中的一些优质公司,例如鲁泰A,出口受价格的影响相对较小,我国高新技术行业的出口总体价格弹性不大,其中的一些优质公司弹性更小,例如长城开发的出口价格弹性为0.8。本文的研究认为尽管人民币升值不会造成我国贸易顺差的减小,但是对纺织服装等劳动密集型行业却有重大的不利影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With economic growth and the expansion of foreign trade, China’s trade surplus has increased a lot in these years, and RMB is also facing unprecedented pressure of appreciation, although RMB has appreciated much since 2005, but the pressure of revaluation still go on. This paper points out that RMB revaluation will not solve China’s trade surplus problem from the research of price elasticity of China’s import and export.This paper absorbs previous research results, studies the price elasticity of China’s commodity exports from the three aspects of macro, meso and micro, and finally put forward feasible proposals to resolve trade disputes. The first part of this paper is to study the meaning and background, the second part is the review section, the third, the fourth and the five parts study of China’s goods exports of price elasticity from three aspects respectively, and finally gives policy recommendations. Through this paper, we find that China’s overall imports and exports are lack of price elasticity, that is not satisfied to the Marshall-Lerner condition, but in terms of different industries, the results is not the same, China’s textile and garment industry is of great elastic, but some of high-quality companies, such as Lutai A, export is of little related to price, China’s export of high-tech industry, the overall price elasticity is little, but some high-quality companies, such as the Great Wall Development Ctd, the export prices elasticity of 0.8. This study concluded that although RMB is not the reason of causing the increase of China’s trade surplus, but labor-intensive industries such as textiles and clothing has a significant adverse impact of appreciation.更多还原