湖南建设用地需求预测研究

【作者】 郭宏；

【导师】 何晓洁；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 土地是人类一切生产和生活的空间承载,也是物质财富的源泉。现代社会里工业化、城市化不断推进,人们文明的发展赋予了土地更多的意义,对土地的需求变得更加复杂和多样。中国的国情是人口众多,土地资源紧张,为合理利用土地,中国宪法规定了世界上最严格的土地使用制度。国民经济的发展使建设用地的需求剧增,“圈地”、滥用土地甚至违法占用耕地的现象时有发生。为使土地资源配置的内在经济规律与政府的调控意愿相衔接,既关注到建设用地调控进度对经济发展的影响,又预防建设用地的过度扩张,必须将建设用地需求与经济社会系统综合考虑,研究建设用地需求的内在规律,分析建设用地面积与经济社会各因素间相互的影响。所以,湖南建设用地需求预测的研究是一项重要课题。本文重点研究了湖南近年来的经济社会发展的宏观数据与年末建设用地面积之间的关系,介绍了建设用地预测的相关数学模型,根据影响因素多的特点采用了适用性强的多元回归方法拟合数据,求出建设用地与相关影响因子的多元预测模型。在研究过程中,综合运用了系统理论、归纳演绎,比较和实证分析等方法。文章在国内外相关研究的基础上,进行定性分析和定量验证,利用相关数据构建预测模型,并分析该方法的先进性和合理性。最后用近十年的经济社会环境数据为样本对模型进行了实证研究,预测未来可能的建设用地需求面积,对解决建设用地缺口较大的问题提出初步政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The land for humans are basic of all production and living space, also the source of material wealth. Different from With the production characteristics of agricultural society, In the modern society, industrialization, urbanization continually promote the development of civilization, the people gave land more significance. The demand for it becomes more complex and varied. China has high population and land resources is tense. For the rational utilization of every inch of land, China’s constitution provides the world’s most rigorous land use policy。The development of the national economy needs to use the land for construction, "Enclosure", abuse of the land cause plantation destroy frequently occurred. As a result, nations must strengthen the regulation of land resources. For allocation of land resources’s internal economic law and the government regulation, consider influence between construction land controlling and economic development, and prevent excessive construction land expansion. Therefore, hunan construction land demand forecasting is an important topic.This article focus on the topic in hunan province in recent years of economic and social development of the macro data and the end of the relationship between the construction land use acreage, introduces the related mathematical models predict,and according to the features of the influence factors choosing multiple regression method for fitting data, and the related factors for construction of prediction model. In the research process, system theory, induce deduction, comparison and empirical analysis, etc. Based on the domestic research and quantitative data related, constructs hunan construction land multiple regression forecasting model, and analyses its sophistication and rationality.更多还原