考虑决策者决策偏好、心理预期的订货问题研究

【作者】 彭民；

【导师】 刘咏梅；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化、产品多样化和科学技术的进步,在许多行业需求变得越来越具有随机性,良好的库存与库存管理,尤其是对订货的准确把握与预测,已成为许多公司的一项重要经济活动。目前关于随机需求下订货问题的研究与应用大都基于理性人、完全理性、偏好不变等基本假设,然而在现实生活中,零售商并不能准确把握市场需求,在订货过程中并不是完全理性的,实际订货往往会偏离期望效用最大化订货量。例如Fisher与Raman(1996)发现时装制造商的订货量总是低于期望利润最大化订货量,Patsuris(2001)发现尽管经济不景气,许多连锁店的订货量还是远远超过其市场需求量。随着这一系列传统订货模型理论无法解释现象的发现,人们开始认识到,基于“完全理性”假设的传统订货模型对现实经济问题的解释具有局限性。近年来,国际上已经有许多学者将心理认知和行为分析引入运作管理研究中,并提出了行为运作的概念。针对订货问题,国际上已经有考虑决策主体的行为影响研究,主要集中于风险厌恶、损失厌恶两方面。而在我国该方面的研究几乎是一片空白,在此基础上的实证研究更是甚少。本文在以往研究基础上,基于前景理论与报童问题模型,通过数学方式建立了综合考虑决策者决策偏好(风险寻求、风险厌恶、风险中性、损失厌恶)与心理预期(心理参考点、概率主观权重)的订货问题模型。本研究通过设计行为测量实验,测量了中国情境下68个学生样本群体的风险寻求、风险厌恶系数水平,以及心理参考点与概率主观权重；通过设计模拟订货实验,模拟考察真实环境下决策者的订货偏差情况与检验订货模型对实际订货行为的解释力；并通过具有很高外部效度的实地调查研究,以检验订货模型对现实经济活动中复杂订货决策行为的更广泛解释力。本文主要结论如下：通过行为测量实验得到被试群体的风险寻求偏好系数α、风险厌恶偏好系数β、风险收益权重系数γ、风险损失态度权重δ分别为1.25、1.05、0.57、0.56。实验结果表明中国情境下被试群体面临收益与损失时的风险偏好与风险厌恶系数大于1,有着渐强的价值敏感性。通过模拟订货实验发现,当所有可能的结果都为收益时(即为确定性收益时),人们是风险厌恶的,受试的订货量会小于经济订货量。在非确定性收益情况下,考虑决策偏好与心理预期的订货模型能更好的解释受试的实际订货行为。另外通过实验数据分析发现,在高需求情况下学生样本受锚定效应与知识层面等因素影响的概率很大。本文还在模拟实验中对高低需求下成熟度效应、产品利润率水平、性别差异、学生年级差异等对决策者订货的显著性检验有：低需求条件下,成熟度效应对订货有显著影响,高需求条件下,成熟度效应对订货没有显著影响；而性别差异则与成熟度效应相反,低需求时没有显著影响,高需求时有显著影响；无论是高需求还是低需求,产品利润率水平都对订货具有显著影响,相反年级差异对订货则都没有显著影响。最后通过立足我国国情的企业实地调查研究发现,实际环境中的零售商并不是完全理性的,其在订货过程中倾向于风险厌恶,会适度减少订货量。考虑决策偏好与心理预期的订货模型能更好的解释零售商的实际订货行为,能有效弥补传统订货模型的不足。更多还原

【Abstract】 With economic globalization, product diversification and scientific and technological progress, the random demand in many industries have become a trend. So it’s very important for current companies to have a good inventory, especially for a perfect order or forecast. Presently, the major research and application of order problem under stochastic demand all based on the rational man assumed, while in practice, vendors often cannot grasp the market demand in the ordering process and not entirely rational, so their actual orders tend to deviate from the expected utility maximization order. For example, Fisher and Raman (1996) found that orders for manufacturers of fashion apparel is always lower than the expected profit maximizing order quantity, Patsuris (2001) found that despite in the economic downturn, many of the chain’s order is still far more than its market demand. Along with this series unexplainable phenomenon of the traditional order model theory appear, people began to recognize that it’s limit to explain the real economic problems by the traditional order model, which is based on the full rationality assumed.In recent years, there are many scholars bring psychological and behavioral to research and analysis the operation management studies, and have put forward the concept of behavioral Operations. For the order problems, there have some research considered the subject’s decision preference, especially focus on risk aversion’ and loss aversion. While reference to China, the behavioral research of order problem is almost blank. So this paper comprehensively make considering the subjects’ decision-making preferences and their psychological expectations to establish a new order problem model which is based on the prospect theory and the newsboy model.Through the design of experiment for measuring behavior, measured the 68 Chinese students＇coefficient levels of their risk seeking and risk aversion preference, as well as the psychological reference point and the subjective weights of probability; through the design of order experiments, studied the subjects’ order deviation rule and examined the new order model; and through the enterprise field studies we examined the broader explanatory power of the new order model to the complex order decision-making behavior in the reality economic activity. Main conclusions of this paper as follows:By the behavioral measuring experiment, the subjects’ preference coefficient of risk-seekingα、preference coefficient of risk-aversionβ、weighting coefficient of risk-benefitγ、attitude weighting risk lossδis respective 1.25、1.05、0.57、0.56. Results of the experiment present that the Chinese subjects’ preference coefficient of risk-seeking and risk-aversion are both greater than 1, which has a gradually increasing sensitivity for the value function.By the ordering experiment, it has been found that people were risk aversion, when all the possible outcomes are for the gain. When all the possible outcomes are non-deterministic returns situation, the ordering model based on Prospect theory can better explain the real order behavior of subjects; but in the deterministic return situation, the traditional order model can better explain the ordering behavior of subjects, both theory models have good complementation. In addition, the order experiment results that the students’order behavior may be affected by the anchoring effect and the knowledge level and other factors.Finally, the enterprise field study under Chinese conditions found that retailers in a real environment are not entirely rational, and they tend to risk aversion and may reduce their order quantity in ordering process. The ordering model based on Prospect theory can better explain the real order behavior of retailers, can effectively compensate for deficiencies in the traditional ordering model.更多还原