长株潭地区生态足迹时间序列研究

【作者】 王雪丽；

【导师】 张颖；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 可持续发展,作为一种全新的发展理念和模式,已成为当代人类面对资源环境等一系列问题时做出的一种必然选择。生态足迹模型的特点是全面的、完整的、有效的,并且在评价区域可持续发展方面具有独特的优势,进而被很多学者用以评估一个区域的可持续发展水平或能力。同时,生态足迹理论具有科学、完善的理论基础,加之其概念框架简单形象、指标体系精简统一,以及方法本身的普适性而开始流行,被国内外学者广泛的应用在可持续发展研究中。为了弥补生态足迹模型的静态分析方法在评价区域可持续发展方面的不足,本文选取了长株潭地区为期10年的数据,进行生态足迹动态的时间序列分析；本文基于生态足迹模型,对模型中的部分因子进行了补充和修正,建立了长株潭地区的生态足迹账户,使长株潭地区的生态足迹更加真实可靠。本文利用相关数据计算了长株潭地区1998-2007年的生态足迹、生态承载力以及相关指标。在此基础之上,动态分析了长株潭地区10年来生态足迹,时间序列变化趋势,并根据这一趋势预测了未来5年的生态足迹总量。综合一系列主要的影响因素,分析长株潭地区的可持续发展状况,并结合长株潭地区的经济发展、管理以及技术特点,提出了实现长株潭地区可持续发展的建议。10年来,长株潭地区生态足迹以及生态承载力都处在不断上升的过程中,但由于增长基数和增长幅度上生态足迹具有绝对的优势,因此生态赤字不断增大。2007年长株潭地区总生态赤字面积达到3282.10万hm2,超出了当年长株潭地区总生态承载力3.57倍,环境供给无法满足人类的需求,区域经济社会发展不可持续现象突出。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a brand-new development concept and mode, sustainable development has become an inevitable choice for our human being to face a series of environment and resources problems.From the moment that the sustainable development was proposed, many scholars are aim at creating a comprehensive, complete and effective quantitative evaluation on the regional sustainable development to evaluate the level and capacity of sustainable development. Because of the scientific and perfect theoretical background, picturesque and straightforward concept framework and the simply and uniform indicator system, the theory of ecological footprint is very populated in the academic community and was applied by a lot of domestic and foreign scholars in the research of sustainable development.In order to reflect the truth present situation of different regional ecological footprint, based on ecological footprint model factor’s corrected and replenished,this paper set up ecological footprint accounts of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan,then make use of relevant data to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of this region from 1998 to 2007, and analyse the dynamic changing tendency of the ecological footprint and main factors affecting ecological footprint,at last, this paper combine with a series of related indicator to analysis the sustainable development situation of the region of Changsha-Zhuzhou-XiangtanFor ten years,the the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the region of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan has been increasing each year,but the rising extent of the the ecological footprint is far more than the the rising extent of ecological carrying capacity, so the ecological deficit is becoming biger and biger. By the year of 2007,the ecological deficit of this region is up to 32.821 million hm2, which is tantamount 5.6 times of ecological carrying capacity of 2007.We can see from the number, there are serious problems between human requirement and supply capability of environment in this region.The development of this region and society confronted the severe environmental problem of ecology.This paper choose ecological footprint intensity index, ecological footprint overload index and other relavent index to evaluate the sustained development situation of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, reflect the economic condition of regional economy of this region and analyze the relationship between them and forecast the amount of ecological footprint in the coming five years, based on the analysis above, this paper provide a scientific support and provide scientific basis for the sustained development strategy of regional economy and society in Changsh-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.Finally,according to the characristics of the development of society and the use of resources of this region,this paper offer some suggestions to make this region achive the sustainable development.更多还原