【作者】 林智灿；

【导师】 许文兴；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 马克思主义中国化， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 就业是民生之本,是人民改善生活的基本前提和途径。扩大就业、实现充分就业是“以人为本”的科学发展观的内在要求与建设社会主义和谐社会的迫切需要,也是福建省实现海西“两个先行区”的客观要求。福建省城乡就业依然存在国有企业下岗职工再就业难、大范围的摩擦性失业和隐性失业、农村劳动力素质低、以及劳动力市场结构性矛盾突出等突出问题。依托第三产业的发展实现就业的拉动是解决福建省就业问题的重要途径之一,这不仅有利于吸纳城乡剩余劳动力,而且有助于推动产业结构的调整与升级,为福建省的稳定与发展奠定基础。本文综合运用定量分析、定性分析、比较和归纳等方法,并借助SPSS和ORIGIN等软件展开研究。首先,在分析福建省城乡就业的现状及存在的问题,与比较三种解决就业问题途径的基础上,指出通过第三产业发展拉动就业是解决就业问题的必由之路。其次,分析福建省三次产业以及第三产业内部各行业就业比重变化。在与国内外就业结构比较的基础上、运用库兹涅茨,钱纳里、艾金通和西姆斯,赛尔奎因和钱纳里等劳动力结构变动理论揭示福建省第三产业就业结构存在的问题,并对影响第三产业就业的因素进行分析。再次,通过产业结构偏离度探析福建省第三产业产值比重的提高对就业比重提高的推动,通过就业弹性分析国民生产总值增加对第三产业就业总人数的带动,利用SPSS软件分析第三产业结构对全社会就业的带动作用;并借助ORIGIN?软件生成福建省第三产业内部各行业就业变动曲线图,在对比、借鉴国内外发展经验的基础上,预测各行业未来就业潜力。最后,在综合上文分析的基础上,提出第三产业带动就业的发展方向,并提出相应的对策建议。本文的结论主要有:第一,福建省就业增长率严重滞后于经济增长率,经济增长对就业增长的带动力不足;第二产业能有效带动就业,但是其就业弹性持续下降、就业拉动作用减弱;第三产业的就业弹性呈稳步上升的趋势,其就业吸纳作用强劲,就业空间广阔,是解决就业的主要渠道。第二,从产业结构偏离度来看,第三产业就业吸纳能力将进一步提升;从就业弹性来看,GDP每增加一个百分点,能带动0.38个单位的第三产业就业,通过大力发展第三产业能够更好的促进就业;从就业结构变动与就业的关联性来看,第三产业就业比重每增加一个百分点,就能引起社会从业人员增加56.418万人,高于第一、二产业。第三,从第三产业内部各行业就业潜力来看,流通部门就业比重最大,而且将继续保持广阔的就业空间;为生产和生活服务的部门就业比重偏低,但其就业潜力巨大,是未来吸纳就业人员的主要渠道;为提高科学文化水平和居民素质的部门就业比重将随着体制改革的推进继续提升;为社会公共需要服务的部门,对就业的拉动作用偏弱。第四,第三产业拉动就业的发展方向应该是全面提升传统服务业,加快发展新兴服务业,大力推进生产性服务业,积极发展农村服务业。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment is the basic for people’s livelihood. Expanding employment and achieve the goal of full employment is the inherent demand of“people oriented”Scientific Outlook on Development , an urgent need to construct harmonious socialist society and an objective requirement to build Fujian province as the“forerunner in two aspects“in West-strait economic zone .there are still many problems concerning employment in Fujian province ,such as difficulty in re-employment for the laid-off from state-owned enterprises, large scale of frictional unemployment for college students and invisible un-employment for rural labor and an acute structural imbalance in the labor market . Counting on the development of tertiary to stimulate employment is a sufficient way-out for employment problems in Fujian province, which will not only take in more surplus labors rural and urban, but also stimulate the adjustment and updating of industrial structure, and pave the way to stability and development in Fujian province.Such methods as Quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis, comparison and induction, and such software as SPSS and ORIGIN are employed in this paper. Firstly, based on the analysis of the status quo and problems of employment in Fujian province, and on the comparison of three ways to settle those problems, it is pointed out that to count on tertiary to settle the problems in Fujian province is an inevitable way. Secondly, the changes of employment proportion for primary, secondary and tertiary industries and for each sectors in tertiary industry. On the basis of the comparison to employment structure home and abroad and with the aid of three models on changes of employment structure, the employment structure problems in tertiary industry is revealed , and the factors effecting employment in the industry is also analyzed . Thirdly, the propellant force of tertiary industry to employment is analyzed in the following aspects: rise proportion of production value leading to rise in employment proportion via industrial structure deviation, increase in GDP causing the increase in volume of employment in tertiary industry via elasticity of employment, and the change of tertiary proportion to the three industries propelling the total volume of employment via SPSS; a curve chart on the change of employment in sectors of tertiary is produced through ORIGIN to predict the employment potential of each sectors . Finally, based on the analysis above, the developing direction for tertiary is pointed out and relevant countermeasures are put forward.The conclusions are as followed:1. Economic development will promote employment, but not sufficient enough; elasticity of employment for secondary decreases continuously, which means it has a increasingly weak employment driving force; the elasticity of employment for tertiary industry shows sign of stable rise, and it can take in large volume of labor, which enables it to be the best way to settle the employment problem.2. from the aspect of industrial structure deviation ,the absorbing capacity for tertiary will be larger ; from the aspect of elasticity of employment , each increase in percentage point of GDP will lead to rise of 0.38 percentage point in employment of tertiary industry ; from the relationship between change in employment structure and employment volume , each increase in percentage point of employment proportion of tertiary industry will cause an increase of 0.56418 million in employment, much higher than the primary and secondary industry .3. From the aspect of employment potential for each sector in tertiary industry, the circulation department enjoys the largest proportion of employment and will maintain this state in the future; the department offering service to production and livelihood is still weak in its employment proportion, but it is the trend for it to take in more employment and to be the channel to absorb labors; the department offering service to improve cultural and scientific level and enhance civil quality will expect increase in employment as the institutional reform progresses; the department offering service to social needs is weak in its capacity to absorb labors.4. The direction for tertiary to absorb more labor will be enhancing traditional service comprehensively, speed up development of new service, promote advance of producer service, and develop rural service.更多还原