【作者】 刘昭；

【导师】 高敏华；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人文地理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究选择经济发展很快的昌吉市为研究对象,以1996和2009年的土地利用现状数据和统计数据为数据源,运用GIS技术、数理统计分析等方法,研究了该地区土地利用变化的过程、驱动机制。运用CLUE-S模型模拟、预测了2015年和2020年的土地利用变化情况,为编制昌吉市土地利用总体规划和生态环境建设提供有效决策支持,具有一定的理论和现实意义。研究表明:(1)在1996~2009年的14年间,昌吉市土地利用发生了较大的变化。从数量上来看,变化幅度大小依次是其他用地>耕地>林地>城镇村及工矿用地>水域及水设施用地>园地;从利用程度上来看,1996年和2009年的土地利用综合指数分别为133.306和143.801,说明土地利用程度和强度都稳步提高,对于土地利用程度指数极限(400),该区域的开发程度还处于一个合理开发阶段,以每年7.873%的速率发展,发展速度是较快的;从土地利用变化构成指数来看,研究区耕地、园地、林地、城镇村及工矿用地处于稳定增加的状态,增加的速度为:园地>耕地>城镇村及工矿用地>林地;水域及水利设施用地和其他用地处于稳定减少状态。(2)采用2009年昌吉市土地利用现状图,将其转化为grid格式,将土地利用类型合并为:a)耕地,b)园地,c)林地,d)城镇村及工矿用地,e)水域及水利设施用地,f)其他用地。运用回归分析的方法,选择了对该地区土地利用变化有重要贡献的12种驱动因子,用Arcview空间分析的方法建立驱动力文件,用SPSS7.55的logistic regression功能分析每种驱动力的权重,建立logistic方程,并将其输入到CLUE-S模型中,得到2015年与2020年的土地利用模拟图。ROC检验结果显示,各种土地类型的拟合度分别为:耕地0.951,园地0.930,林地0.892,城镇村及工矿用地0.937,水域及水利设施用地0.927,其他用地0.937。拟和度均大于0.75,拟和度较好。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fast developing city Changji has been chosen as the research object of this report. The data about current land utilization and other sources of statistics of 1996 and 2009 has been used to study the process of changing land utilization and the driving mechanism, by using GIS technique and mathematical statistics analysis. The respective precast of changing land utilizations of 2015 and 2020 have also been made in this research by using CLUE-S model. The results of this research can be useful for decision makes of land utilization planning and the construction of ecological environment. Therefore, this research is of theatrical and practical significance. The research shows:(1). The land utilization of Changji has changed a lot during the past 14 years, from 1996 to 2009. Quantitatively, the range change scale is: other lands, farm lands, forest lands, industrial lands, irrigating facilities lands, and garden lands. The land utilization indices of 1996 and 2009 are respectively 133.306 and 143.801, which means improvement has been made in land utilization during this period. Since the maximum index for land utilization is 400, there is still huge potential improvement to be made. The growth rate in this region is 7.873%, which is relatively high. In terms of land utilization structure, farm lands, forest lands, industrial lands, irrigating facilities lands, and garden lands are all in the process of increase in the researched area. The range of growing speed is: garden lands> farm lands> industrial lands> forest lands. The utilization of irrigating facilities lands and other lands is declining.(2). Transform the graph of the distribution of land utilization of Changji in 2009 into grid format, and classify the utilization types as following categories: a. farm lands, b. garden lands, c. forest lands, d. industrial lands, e. irrigating facilities lands, and f. other lands. The 12 factors which are significant related to the land utilization in this region have been chosen by using regression analysis. The driving forces files have been made by using Arcview spatial analysis and these files are put into CLUE-S model to get the imitating graph of the land utilization of 2015 and 2020 respectively. Tested by ROC, the degree of fitting of every land type is given as follows: farm lands: 0.957, garden lands: 0.930, forest lands: 0.892, industrial 0.937, irrigating facilities lands: 0.927 and other lands: 0.937, all are greater than 0.75, which can be considered to be acceptable.更多还原