【作者】 范丽丽；

【导师】 李晓东；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人文地理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 后备耕地资源是耕地重要的补充来源,是干旱半干旱地区绿洲农业及生态环境持续稳定发展的重大影响因素。研究后备耕地资源的时空分异与动态变化,对于及时掌握后备耕地开发安全性,合理制定后备耕地开发利用对策,实现区域农业可持续发展等方面具有重要作用和现实意义。本研究选择具有长期研究基础的新疆干旱区渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲为典型后备耕地开发安全性研究区,运用空间信息技术(RS、GIS、GPS),以1989、2001和2007年三期卫星数据为基本数据源,定量提取后备耕地资源利用信息并对后备耕地利用/覆被类型进行分类,系统剖析后备耕地资源时空动态变化;选取包括数量安全、质量安全、生态安全、经济安全四方面的21个指标,对2000~2007年渭-库绿洲后备耕地资源开发安全性进行评价;借助ARCGIS空间分析模块,实现后备耕地资源开发综合安全性空间分布的可视化,在此基础上提出后备耕地资源的开发建议。研究取得了以下主要结论:(1)从面积转移分析发现研究区后备耕地在不断向耕地转变,耕地在较高维持原本地类的同时,又有大面积的毁林开荒、荒草地开荒不断增加耕地数量,此外沙地、盐碱地、裸地、滩涂、水体、湿地沼泽均有部分被开发为耕地,但开发后问题也较多,各地类向盐碱地转移面积较大,植被覆盖度减少,后备耕地资源开发不够安全。(2)从动态变化方面看,1989~2007年前期后备耕地年变化速率快,而后期年变化速率慢,总体上后备耕地变化速度减慢。在面积动态度变化方面,荒草地、荒地朝着规模增大的方向发展,且荒地面积年均增长速度远大于荒草地;裸地、盐碱地、滩涂、湿地沼泽、沙地朝着规模缩小的方向发展,且面积年均减小的速度依次加快。在空间动态度变化方面,荒地空间动态变化度最大,裸地空间动态变化度始终最小。(3) 2000~2007年间,2000年后备耕地开发安全性最高,属于较安全态,此外,2002年也属于较安全态;从总体看来,自2000年起,后备耕地开发安全性总体下降,朝着风险态方向发展,但自2001年起,后备耕地开发安全状态略有回升,之后基本维持在0.4左右,属于敏感态,至2006年,开发安全性急剧下降,降至风险态。(4)绿洲后备耕地资源综合开发最安全的区域始终分布在中心农区,而较安全区域、值得关注区、危险区、高度危险区依次由中心农区向外发散,安全区域面积随中心农区扩大而扩大,较安全区域始终位于绿洲与荒漠交错带;而由绿洲与荒漠交错带再向外发散,都属于后备耕地开发不安全区域,包括荒漠区与塔河沿岸生态脆弱区。且总体看来,值得关注区的范围始终较大,危险区域范围有所增加,而高度危险区域范围变化较小。(5)将后备耕地资源开发综合安全性等级图与乡镇图叠置,得出结论:就开发等级而言,开发等级为高度危险的区域全部分布在库车县;开发等级为危险的区域主要分布在沙雅县和库车县,而新和县处于该等级的区域面积较小;就各县而言,库车县大部分区域属于开发高度危险等级区域与值得关注等级区域;沙雅县大部分区域属于危险等级与值得关注等级;新和县大部分区域属于值得关注等级区域和危险等级区域。更多还原

【Abstract】 The arable land reserve resources are major supplementary source of cultivated land, also affected the sustainable development and stability of oasis’agricultural and ecological environment in arid and semiarid areas. To study the spatial differentiation of arable land reserve resources, and monitor its dynamic changes, which is very important to master the security of the reserve resources of cultivated land, make the arable land reserve resources use policies and measures reasonably, implement sustainable development of oasis’agricultural and so on.This study selected the delta oasis of Weigan and Kuqa River as the typical research area of the reserve resources of cultivated land, which has been researched long-term in Xinjiang’s arid area. We used spatial information technology (RS, GIS, GPS), took three period’s (1989,2001, and 2007) satellite data as the basic data sources, extracted the distribution of the reserve resources of cultivated land quantitatively and did classification; analyzed the spatial and temporal change of the reserve resources of cultivated land; and built indicator system which contained 21 indicators ,including quantity suitability, quality suitability, ecological suitability and economic suitability, was set up to evaluate the security of development of the reserve resources of cultivated land from 2000 to 2007; implemented the visualization of comprehensive security of development of the arable land reserve resources; put forward control measures of developing the reserve resources of cultivated land.Major conclusions:(1) From aspect of area convertible situation, we found that the reserve resources of cultivated land constantly changed to cultivated land, the cultivated land higher maintain formerly kind, at the same time, large area of forests and fields of weeds were developed to increase the quantity of the cultivated land, besides, little of field of sand, saline alkali land, uncovered land, shoal, water land, wetland and marsh, were exploited to be cultivated land, but there were many problems in the process of development, each kind transferred large area to saline alkali land, vegetation cover ratio was decreased, the development of the reserve resources of cultivated land was not safe.(2) From the space dynamic change, from 1989 to 2007, the changing amount in earlier stage is quicker, the comprehensive speed that the the reserve resources of cultivated land utilizes degree was increased; From the space dynamic change of area, field of weeds and undeveloped land developed towards the direction of increased scale; the annual growth speed of undeveloped land is faster than field of weeds; uncovered land, saline alkali land, shoal, wetland and marsh, soil land developed toward direction of reduce scale; and the reduce speed was quickly in order; at the side of spatial dynamic change degree, spatial dynamic change of undeveloped land is the biggest one, and waste land is the smallest one.(3) From 2000 to 2007, the development of the reserve resources of cultivated land in 2000 was security, which was belonged to more safety condition, and also was 2002. From the overall analysis, the development of the reserve resources of cultivated land was totally decreased, turned to dangerous condition, but after 2001, the security condition of development the reserve resources of cultivated land was slowly improved, after than, the security values were kept nearly 0.4, which was belonged to sensitive condition, the situation of security quickly decreased to dangerous condition in 2006.(4) High security region of the reserve resources of cultivated land in oasis mainly distributed in central agricultural area, and security region, noteworthy region, dangerous region, and highly dangerous region, successively distributed out of central agricultural area; as the area of central agricultural grew larger, the coverage area of most security region became larger, too. Security region almost distributed between oasis and desert interlaces; and expanded from oasis and desert interlaces, all were belonged to dangerous region of the reserve resources of cultivated land, which concluded desert interlaces and ecologically fragile areas in Tarim Basin. From the totally analysis, the area of noteworthy region almost was very large, and dangerous region became larger, but the range of highly dangerous region changed little.(5) Overlay comprehensive security level distribution in 2007 with figure of town, get conclusion as following: see from security level of development, highly dangerous region all distributed in Kuche; dangerous region mainly distributed in Shaya and Kuche, little region of this level distributed in Xinhe ; see from conties, most areas of Kuche were belonged to highly dangerous level and noteworthy level; most areas of Shaya were belonged to dangerous level and noteworthy level; most areas of Xinhe were belonged to noteworthy level and dangerous level.更多还原