【作者】 罗婷婷；

【导师】 赵瑞雪；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 基于多模型的农产品供求信息分析预测系统是农业科技成果转化资金项目“农产品市场信息分析预测网络化平台熟化与应用”的子课题之一,旨在探讨适合农产品供求预测的经济预测模型,并将其转化成计算机语言,最终建立一个基于WEB的农产品供求信息分析预测系统,为农业管理部门、农业研究人员、农业企业及农户提供有效的农产品供求基本信息及分析预测信息,使其对农产品市场的顺利运行,农业生产方向、生产组织形式的合理调整提供正确指导。本论文首先根据系统建设目标,及系统应用对象的需求,对农产品供求信息指标、农产品供求信息分析预测的内容进行了详细分析,得出系统的基本功能及基本业务流程图;然后,对系统的总体结构、总体功能、主要功能、数据库、界面进行设计,并通过UML的序列图、活动图、协作图进行详细阐述;最后,基于Visual Studio.NET环境,采用Visual C#.NET语言实现了基于多模型的农产品供求信息分析预测系统。?系统的基本功能包括农产品供求信息的查询、统计、预测、分析和系统管理,其中供求信息预测和分析是系统的主要和核心功能。基于农产品供求平衡理论,本文将农产品生产量、进口量、出口量、消费量、库存量确立为农产品供求信息的主要指标和分析预测的主要内容;系统采用加权移动平均、时间序列、灰色预测、组合预测四种模型进行供求信息的预测,文中介绍了四种预测模型的基础理论及预测结果评价方法,详细说明了其编程实现,并以小麦产量预测为例,证明四种模型均适合农产品供求信息的预测。?本系统采用了基于B/S的三层体系结构、SQL Server数据库、ADO.NET数据库访问技术,通过采用Infragistics NetAdvantage中的Ultra Chart图形组件技术,将运行结果进行直观明了的显示。系统已经基本完成开发,运行效果较好。本文认为在今后工作中,必须进一步完善农产品供求信息指标体系,加强数据采集的准确性、完整性;对已采用的经济预测模型进一步细化和扩展,还可以考虑增加其他的预测方法;由于预测受主观和客观两种因素影响,因此,必须完善交互的人机界面,不断完善所采用的计算机技术。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Information Analyzing and Forecasting System Based on Multi-model is a sub-project of the national technology platform transformation project called "Curing and Application of the Agricultural Market Information Analyzing and Forecasting networked Platform", with the aim to find economic forecasting models applicable to forecast agricultural products supply and demand information, and then convert it into computer language, and finally develop a WEB-based agricultural supply and demand information analyzing and forecasting system. This system can provide applicable guidance for the adjustment of agricultural productive activities and productive organizations, so conducive to the smooth operation of agricultural markets, by providing basic agricultural products supply and demand information and accurate analyzing and forecasting information.First of all, according to the purpose of system development and users’requirements, the indicators of agricultural products supply and demand information and the content of information analyzing and forecasting were analyzed, and the basic functions of the system and the basic business process diagrams were obtained. Then, the general structure, general functions, main functions, database and interfaces were designed and illustrated by UML sequence diagrams, activity diagrams and collaboration diagrams. Finally, the system is developed using Visual C#. NET language in Visual Studio.NET environment.The system includes five functions, i.e. query, statistics, forecasts, analysis, and system management of agricultural products supply and demand information, with forecasts and analysis being the major and core functions. Based on agricultural supply and demand equilibrium theory, the agricultural output, imports, exports, consumption and stockpile were chosen as the main indicators of agricultural supply and demand information, and the main contents of forecast. This system utilized four models to analyze and predict the agricultural products supply and demand information. They were weighted moving average forecasting model, time series forecasting model, gray prediction model, and combined forecasting model. In this paper, the basic theory of four models and the assessment methods of prediction of outcome were introduced. The programming was decribed. The forecasting of wheat production was adopted as an example, to prove the four models suitable for agricultural products demand and supply information forecasting.The basic system development work has been completed and the system is performing well. In the development process, a number of technologies were used, such as, B / S three-tier architecture, SQL server database, ADO.NET database access technology, Ultra Chart graphics component technology, and so on.In future work, the followings need to done. The indicator system of agricultural supply and demand information needs improvement. The data collected must be more accuracy and comprehensive. The economic forecasting models adopted need further refinement and expansion, and other forecasting methods can be considered. Finally, because of the subjective and objective factors, we must improve the interaction of man-machine interface, and use better computer technologies.更多还原