【作者】 王云微；

【导师】 李树；

【作者基本信息】 西南政法大学 ， 国民经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 1999年1月1日欧元的启动使得欧洲货币一体化成为现实,“欧元之父”蒙代尔曾经预言,与世界三大经济区相对应将出现三大货币区：欧元区、美元区和亚洲货币区。因此,在东亚区域经济一体化已经达到一定程度的条件下如何实现货币一体化非常值得关注。中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立为中国—东盟货币合作提供了现实的可能性,根据最优货币区理论,亚洲经济一尤其是东亚经济的蓬勃发展将推动“亚元”区的最终形成。但现实情况与理论反差较大,东亚货币一体化的进程与该地区经济发展的进程并不同步。笔者认为,造成东亚货币一体化水平远远落后于经济发展水平的原因,在于东亚地区缺乏核心大国开展货币金融合作的良好政治氛围,使得该地区货币一体化缺乏推动力。而中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立为东亚货币合作提供了现实的可能性。本文运用最优货币区理论和大量的数据对中国—东盟货币合作的经济因素进行了分析,结论表明中国—东盟国家相互贸易依存度高,存在货币一体化的可能性,合作的成本正在不断下降,可以进行货币合作的实践。中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设、建立,为在中国—东盟展开区域货币合作提供了有利的契机。认为货币合作是中国—东盟之间存在相互依存关系的现实与合作博弈愿望的反映,中国引导、参与货币合作是自身和平发展战略利益的体现,东盟参与货币合作也将有利于实现其国际战略利益。本文认为在汇率合作方面,中国—东盟次区域不可能再实行盯住美元的汇率制度,提出了“一揽子目标区爬行盯住方案”、“盯住区域内和区域外货币共同构成的混合货币篮”两种汇率协调机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 On 1st January 1999, the use of Euro makes the integration of European currency become realization! Mundell who is’the father of Euro’has predicted that the three integration-currency region would take place that is accordance with the three economic region, Euro region, dollar region and Asian currency region. The problem of how to realize the Asian currency region becomes a focus of attention under the situation that its economic integration has reached to such an extent. The found and development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area make the found of China-ASEAN become possible, according to Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, the prosperously economic development will push the found of China-ASEAN Monetary System in the end! But the situation is not like that now, the integration of monetary system is not synchronous with the economic development of this region! This works thinks that the main cause of the lag of integration of monetary system in China-ASEAN is that there isn’t a powerful country which raises and develops the monetary cooperation.This works makes the use of Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and a large number of data to analyze the economic factors of China-ASEAN monetary integration! It indicates that with many dependencies existed in the trade activities and the continue falling cost of currency cooperation, China-ASEAN can make the try of monetary integration! The found and development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area make the time for enhancement of the currency cooperation in China-ASEAN area! This works also think that Currency cooperation is the reality of the co-existence relation and the reflect of the cooperative game desire between China and ASEAN. Taking part in and developing the monetary integration is consistent with China’s policy of Peaceful development, and it is also helpful for ASEAN to implement the international strategic interests. For the Exchange rate cooperation, it concludes that the sub-region of China-ASEAN cannot stick to the U.S. dollar exchange rate system and proposes the two exchange rate coordination mechanism which are’crawling stare at a package of target areas strategy’and’stare at the mixture currency package that is composed of the inside and outside regional currencies’.更多还原