【作者】 谭钦文；

【导师】 郝勇； 刘克中；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国经济的快速发展和相关航运技术的进步,我国的航运业也进入了一个快速发展期,由于水上交通日益频繁,水上突发事件的发生频率也日趋增加。水上突发事件往往造成巨大人命财产损失和水域环境污染,同时在政治和经济上给国家带来负面影响。我国水上突发事件应对能力相对不足。对水上突发事件应急管理体系进行科学分析评估,其目的在于识别应急体系中优势因素与缺陷因素,为提高水上突发事件应对能力确定方向和措施。通过查阅文献、到芜湖海事局现场调研以及专家咨询等方式,进行了水上突发事件管理体系应急能力的调查,结合水上突发事件应急管理体系的运行流程,设计了水上突发事件管理体系的四级指标体系,包括组织结构、应急预防及准备、应急保障、监测与预警、应急响应及救援和事后处理与恢复6个二级指标,进一步细化得到22个三级指标、29个四级指标,建立了水上应急管理体系模糊综合评估模型。以芜湖海事局水上突发事件应急管理体系为例,运用层次分析-模糊综合评价法,选择芜湖海事管理机构负责人、指挥中心工作人员、专业救助人员等20位专家。首先发放“指标权重排序问卷”构造判断矩阵,运用层次分析法中的方根法计算得到各层指标权重；然后建立评语集“很差、较差、中等、较好、很好”,发放“模糊综合评价专家评议表”,采用模糊统计法归一化处理得到各个指标对应的隶属度,从而得到相应的单因素评价矩阵,由单因素评价矩阵和单因素权重,从四级指标逐层向上计算,得到二级指标的综合评判结果；最后采用等级参数法反模糊法计算得到芜湖海事局水上突发事件管理体系应急能力总体评估分值。层次分析-模糊综合评价法计算得到芜湖海事局水上突发事件管理体系应急能力总体评估分值为3.0756,略高于中等评估标准,对应评语集中的“中等”和“较好”之间,说明芜湖海事局水上突发事件应急管理体系的应急能力尽管满足当前的应急反应需要,但还存在诸多不足。从综合评价结果及指标权重排序两方面分析,提出了加快应急预案更新、加强应急人员培训演习、提高应急保障能力等提高应急能力的对策。这一评估结果与该局几次事故后专家定性评估结论基本一致,反证该评估指标体系的选取在内河水上突发事件管理体系应急能力评估方面具有其适用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic development and technological progress related to shipping industry in recent years, the shipping industry of China stepped into a period of rapid development, the increasing vessel traffic had made the maritime emergency occurred frequently. What is more, in case a maritime emergency occurred, would cause great loss of life and property and water pollution, and also with tremendous negative impact on the state’s political and economic stability. The purpose of evaluating and analyzing the maritime emergency response management system is to identify the advantages and disadvantages in the system, and make improvement towards the system.By consulting relevant literature, field research, expert advice and assessment questionnaire in Wuhu Maritime Safety Administration (Wuhu MSA), a four-level index system of maritime emergency response management has been proposed, including organization architecture, emergency prevention and preparation, emergency support, monitoring and warning, emergency response, rescue and post treatment. These six secondary indicators are further detailed into 22 third-degree indicators and 29 fourth-degree indicators. And the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the maritime emergency response management system is established.Taking the maritime emergency response management system of Wuhu MSA as an example, the person in charge of the Wuhu MSA, personnel in command center, specialized rescue personnel and other 20 experts are selected by using analytical hierarchy-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Firstly, the’index weight sorting questionnaire’ is released to construct judgment matrix and the square root law in analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight of each index. Then, the review set "very poor, poor, medium, good, very good," is established and "Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Expert Evaluation Form" is released. In order to get the corresponding single-factor evaluation matrix, the corresponding degree of membership of various indicators is obtained by normalizing fuzzy statistics. Based on the single factor evaluation matrix and the single factor weight, the comprehensive evaluation results of the secondary indicators are obtained by calculating layer by layer up form the fourth-degree indicators. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation scores of the maritime emergency response management system for Wuhu MSA are calculated by level parameter method and anti-fuzzy method.The comprehensive evaluation score of the maritime emergency response management system for Wuhu MSA by using analytical hierarchy-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is 3.0756. It is slightly higher than the middle-evaluation criteria, and between the’medium’and’good’, which indicated that the emergency response capacity of Wuhu maritime emergency response management system can meet the current emergency response needs, but there are many inadequacies. According to the result of comprehensive evaluation and the importance of indicators, improvements such as speeding up the update of contingency plans, strengthening emergency response training exercises and improving emergency support capabilities are put forward to improve emergency response capabilities.And the evaluation results are basically consistent with the qualitative assessments of experts after several accidents by the experts from the council, reflecting the four-level evaluation index system has applicability on the capability evaluation of inland-water maritime emergency response management system.更多还原