【作者】 张在来；

【导师】 金芳；

【作者基本信息】 山东经济学院 ， 数量经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 自1980年恢复保险业务以来,我国保险业取得了世人瞩目的成就。行业面貌发生巨大变化,服务经济社会的能力不断提升,行业实力不断壮大,为建设和谐社会做出了重大贡献。作为保险业的一个主要分支,人身保险业勇于承担社会责任,不断拓展重点领域,充分发挥了分散风险和补偿损失的功能。我国寿险业取得了飞快发展,但同时也暴露了许多问题,如产品结构欠合理、市场结构有待优化和区域发展不平衡等。为了促进中国寿险业的平稳健康发展,本文对影响中国寿险业发展规模的因素进行了研究。论文首先介绍选题的背景、写作思路和研究框架以及论文的创新之处。然后从市场主体、保费收入、制度变迁和产品创新四个方面介绍中国寿险业的发展特征,分析了中国寿险业发展面临的机遇和挑战。接着对国内外关于寿险业发展与其影响因素关系的研究进行分析,在此基础上归纳出影响我国寿险业发展规模的主要因素。实证部分首先对变量数据进行平稳性检验,然后通过格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验筛选出影响中国寿险业发展规模的主要因素,通过VAR估计,采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解动态地研究主要因素对行业发展的作用路径和贡献大小。论文最后是结合我国经济和社会发展的现实,探究促进民族寿险业持续快速发展的对策。研究发现我国寿险业具有强烈的扩张冲动,单纯依靠自身的资本存量,合理地配置寿险资源,就可以实现行业的快速增长;创新是影响行业发展的第一大外因,是行业发展的灵魂,唯有不断地进行制度创新和产品创新才能做大做强中国寿险业;城市居民收入水平的提高和行业发展有着互动作用。本文认为加强对农民的保险知识宣传、提高风险意识和增加收入有利于实现农民增收和行业增长的相互促进,充分发挥寿险的社会保障功能,有利于寿险产品结构合理化和不同地区的均衡发展,将会成为我国寿险业成长的新增长点。总的来说,中国寿险业的平稳健康发展需要政府不断进行制度创新,解除行业发展的桎梏,需要中资寿险公司以市场机制为主导,以服务经济社会为己任,以政府推动为助力,依靠自身力量,勇于理念创新、产品创新和思路创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 China insurance industry has been developed rapidly that has aroused great attention in the world insurance since China carried out its open and reform policy.As a main branch ,China life insurance industry has done great contribution to the concordant society.At the same time,there are many problems that hinder its progress,such as product structure and the balance of different areas in the development.The paper aims at finding out a healthy way for the industry.The paper includes six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.The author introduces the background and the structure of the paper.The second is about the character of China life insurance industry. In the third chapter, the author analyses the research on the elements that influences life insurance industry theoretically. In the fourth chapter, the author concludes the more important elements by cointegration test and Granger causality tests. There are GDP,deposits,the income of citizens and innovation.A VAR model is established in the fifth chapter. The author probes the way of the influence of the elements and their contribution to the industry by impulse function and variance decomposition. The sixth chapter is the conclusion.The author finds out that China life insurance has the impulse of enlarging its scale, and can grow rapidly if it can use its resources in an efficient way. Innovation that includes institution innovation and product innovation is the most important element that leads to the progress of China life insurance industry. Innovation is the soul of China life insurance industry.更多还原