【作者】 傅志妍；

【导师】 朱健梅；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 物流工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 进入新世纪以来,我国现代物流业步入了加速发展的新阶段,在社会的经济发展中发挥着越来越重要的支撑和带动作用。区域物流的发展必将会推动区域经济的持续、快速、健康发展,而区域物流通道作为区域物流系统的重要组成部分,其规划与建设是区域各城市间进行经济交流的支撑体系。2009年,为应对金融危机,我国出台了一系列拉动内需的政策,其中《物流业调整与振兴规划》的制定为现代物流业的快速发展提供了良好的机遇,而加快作为现代物流业发展基础的物流通道建设是振兴规划的重点内容。近年来自然灾害频发,对人类进步和经济发展造成巨大的破坏与损失,导致正常的物流通道系统不能及时输送应急物资和提供救援,因此探索自然灾害发生前的区域防灾物流通道系统规划,有着重大的现实意义。本文从区域防灾物流通道系统规划的基本理论出发,梳理了区域物流系统、区域物流通道等相关概念,界定了区域防灾物流通道的概念,并提出了区域防灾物流通道系统规划的三阶段法,然后进行了自然灾害对区域物流通道系统的影响分析。根据基于常规物流需求预测量的区域防灾物流需求预测思路,建立了“案例推理—粗糙集整合模型”进行物流量预测,为区域防灾物流通道系统规划奠定基础。最后通过测算现状区域物流通道系统的能力测度,并进行了反映自然灾害对区域物流通道影响的可靠性分析,建立了基于多目标-双层规划的区域防灾物流通道布局规划模型及方案评价体系。将本文的研究成果应用于雅安市对外物流通道系统规划的实例中,在实践中验证方法的科学性和可行性,以便发现不足继续研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern logistics industry is playing an increasingly important role to support and stimulate social and economic development. As an important part of the regional logistics system, the construction of regional logistics corrioders supports the reginal economics development, which is the focus of revitalization plan of logistics industry contents issued in 2009. In recent years, frequent natural disasters caused enormous destruction and loss to human progress and economic development, leading to emergency goods can not be transported in time by logistics corrioder system.Based on the basic theory of regional logistics corridor system planning for disaster-prevention, the author classifies them, defines a new concept about regional logistics corridor for disaster-prevention, and provides a Three-phase approach method of the regional logistics corridor system planning for disaster-prevention. Followed by natural disasters impact analysis on regional logistics corridor system, the author establishes regional logistics demand forecast for disaster-prevention methods of an integrated model of Case-based reasoning and Rough sets based upon conventional logistics demand forecast to serve for planning. Finally the author measures flow capacity of regional logistics corridor system and carries out reliability analysis which reflects natural disasters impact on regional logistics corridor, and then Multi-objective and Bi-level programming and evaluation system for regional logistics corridor system for disaster-prevention.The author applies the research achievements on the design of Yaan logistics corridors planning for disaster-prevention to carry out a scientific and feasibility analysis and find out its deficiency.更多还原