【作者】 高清婧；

【导师】 熊国强；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 区域经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 在城市经济快速发展、城市人口积聚和城市规模不断扩大的同时,城市中的各类重大危险源也随之产生并在持续增加,成为城市重、特大事故发生的主要致因,并严重威胁着城市的安全发展。对城市重大危险源进行辨识和评价,了解其详细的分布状况,并评价分布的合理性,是预防重大事故发生的重要手段,也是对重大危险源监管的前提；同时,为了从根本上减少并预防重大灾害事故的发生,需要运用系统工程的科学方法,从消除导致事故发生的主要原因入手,对城市重大危险源系统进行风险性分析,从而为城市的可持续发展提供有力保障。论文正是针对这一现实要求,以西安市为背景,对重大危险源的辨识、评价以及重大危险源系统的脆性风险进行了深入研究。首先,阐述了国内外重大危险源以及应急管理相关理论的研究现状,讨论了重大危险源的定义、分类及其辨识与分级技术,为西安市重大危险源的辨识与评价打好了理论基础；其次,按照GB18218-2000《重大危险源辨识》中的分类方法,结合西安市的具体情况,进行了西安市的七类重大危险源的分布现状的辨识和普查,并从多个角度对其分布状况进了统计以及定性的分析；进而以人口密度和重大危险源企业拥有量、规模以上工业总产值等指标为视角,评价了西安市重大危险源分布的合理性,指出了西安市在重大危险源管理方面存在的问题；再次,根据复杂系统脆性的定义及特点,从系统的内外因素出发,建立了具有四层结构体系的复杂系统脆性风险模型,以此为基础,结合熵理论,论证了脆性是复杂系统的本质属性,并提出脆性风险熵的概念,以用来衡量重大危险源系统脆性风险的整体不确定性；接着,以元胞自动机为复杂系统脆性风险的建模技术,对西安市某处重大危险源较为密集的区域进行了脆性风险仿真,结果表明,当在脆性因子的干扰作用下,作为社会系统的一个子系统的重大危险源系统将会由于遭受足够大的打击而崩溃,从而对其他社会子系统(如经济系统、人口系统)产生足够大的影响,最终导致整个社会系统发生混乱：最后,提出了预防重大危险源引发重特大事故的对策建议,以期为政府的监管工作提供有效帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the urban economy, gradual accumulation of the urban population and continuous expansion of the city scale, various major hazard in city have been generated and are increasing constantly, which have become the main leading cause of the major accidents occurance and seriously threatened the urban safe development. Indentification and assessment of the urban major hazard, realizing the detailed distribution situation and assessing the distribution rationality are the important means of preventing the occurance of major accidents and the premise of major hazard supervision; at the same time, it needs scientific method of system engineering so as to reduce and prevent the major accidents occurance fundamentally, which starts with eliminating the main causes that inducing the major accidents occurance, analyses the risk of urban major hazard system, thereby, it can provide powerful guarantee for the city sustainable development.This paper aiming at the actual requirement, as the background of Xi’an, further studied the indentification, assessment and the brittleness risk of the major hazard system. Firstly, the paper elaborated the research status of the correlation theory of major hazard and emergency management home and abroad, discussed the definition, category, the indentification and classification technology of major hazard, which provided the theoretical support for indentification and assessment of Xi’an major hazard; secondly, according to the category method in GB18218-2000 major hazard indentification, combined with the concrete conditions, the paper indentified and surveyed the 7 categories major hazard in Xi’an, counted and qualitative analysed the distribution status with multi-angle, then, making the index of population density, holding quantity of major hazard enterprises and the gross value of industrial output above designated size as the perspective, assessed the rationality of Xi’an major hazard distribution, and indicated the problems of Xi’an major hazard management; thirdly, based on definition and characteristics of the brittleness of complex system, starting with the internal and external factors, builded the brittleness risk model of complex system with four layers structure, combining with the entropy theory, demonstrated that brittleness is the essential attribute of the complex system, and brought forward the conception of brittleness risk entropy so as to measure the uncertainty of the brittleness risk of major hazard, following this, using the cellular automata as the modeling tehnology of complex system’s brittleness risk, simulated the brittleness risk of somewhere with dense major hazard distribution of Xi’an, and the results showed that, under the interference effect of the brittleness factors, as one of the society systems, the subsystem of major hazard distribution will collapse, which also seriously impact the other subsystems (such as economic subsystem, population subsystem), and the whole society system will be confusion consequently. Finally, the papter advanced some suggestions of preventing major accidents, in order to afford available help to the supervision work of government.更多还原