【作者】 丁立水；

【导师】 许皞； 陈亚恒；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 土壤学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 耕地是土地的精华,保持一定数量和质量的耕地是人类赖以生存和发展的基础,也是保障粮食安全的关键。随着社会经济的快速发展,工业化与城镇化的推进以及生态退耕等对耕地资源产生的巨大需求,再加上我国人多地少的国情,耕地后备资源严重不足,这些都使得耕地供需矛盾更加突出。耕地供需平衡不仅要求耕地数量上的平衡,而且也要满足耕地质量上的平衡,那么,解决耕地供需平衡的关键问题是如何在数量和质量上确定耕地的需求量和供给量。目前,对于耕地供需平衡研究,缺乏对耕地供给质量的研究,而农用地分等从根本上摸清了耕地的数量和质量状况,为分析耕地供给质量提供科学依据,从而实现耕地数量和质量上双重平衡,可以为编制新一轮土地利用总体规划提供一定依据和参考借鉴,同时也对于实现社会、经济、政治的稳定具有重要的现实意义。本文以国内外相关研究为基础,探讨基于农用地分等成果的县域耕地供需平衡研究思路,从数量和质量上分析县域耕地需求量和供给量,并以河北省卢龙县为例进行了实证研究。主要研究结论如下:(1)运用基于粮食安全的最小耕地需求量法,全面分析影响耕地需求的各个因素,预测规划期耕地需求数量和粮食需求量。结果表明,2020年卢龙县共需耕地46426.30 hm2,需粮食195489.33 t。(2)全面分析影响耕地减少的各个因素,针对不同的影响因素,采用不同的方法预测规划期耕地减少量。结果表明,2020年卢龙县建设用地占耕地449.48 hm2,损失最大粮食生产能力3966.07 t;生态退耕565.08 hm2,损失最大粮食生产能力4245.71 t;自然灾害及农业结构调整不占用耕地。(3)在农用地分等的基础上,通过全面分析影响耕地生产能力的各个因素,借助耕地因素组合,构建耕地后备资源开发、整理、复垦的最大潜力模型,增强了供给耕地数量和质量的准确性。结果表明,卢龙县后备资源开发可增加耕地12470hm2,增加最大粮食生产能力94064.78 t,可整理耕地2079.2hm2,增加最大粮食生产能力18405.8 t,待复垦面积56.40 hm2,增加最大粮食生产能力391.95 t。(4)以河北省卢龙县为例进行了实证研究,结果表明,2020年耕地需求数量和粮食生产能力分别为46426.30 hm2、195489.33 t,耕地供给数量和粮食生产能力分别为56931.21hm2、362826.80 t,通过两者比较可知2020年卢龙县耕地能够实现数量和质量的双重平衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cultivated land is the essence of land, maintaining a certain amount and quality of cultivated land is not only the basis for the development and live for human,but also the key to food security. With the rapid social and economic development, industrialization and urbanization propulsion and ecological abandoned land, there has been large demand for cultivated land. What is more, the nationallife of vast population and limited cultivated land , and the lack of reserve cultivated land resource all make the contradiction more prominent. The cultivated land supply and demand balance requires not only the balance of quantity, but also to meet the balance of quality. Now,the research on cultivated land supply and demand balance lack research on the quality of supply. The agricultural land grading find out status of the cultivated land quantity and quality from the root, providing the basis of the quality of cultivated land supply, achieving balance on the double in quantity and quality of cultivated land .It can be not only for the preparation of a new round of land use planning to provide a basis and reference drawing, but also for social, economic and political stability to have important practical significance.On the base of research in domestic and foreign ,this paper probs the ideas of county land supply and demand balance based on the results of achievement agricultural land grading and analysis county land supply and demand balance of quality of supply making Lulong County, Hebei Province as an example to make a study. The main conclusions as follows:(1)It analysises the various factors affecting the demand of cultivated land from every angle,within minimum use of land-based food security demand method, forecasting the demand of land and food in the planning period.The result shows that it would require 46426.30 hm2 cultivated land and 195489.33 t food in Lulong County in 2020.(2)It analysises the various factors affecting reduction of cultivated land and forecasts the reduction in the planning period with different methods for different factors.The result shows that it would require 449.48 hm2 cultivated land for construction and loss 3966.07 t food largest; it would require 565.08 hm2 cultivated land for ecological restoration and loss 4245.71 t food in the largest;it do not occupy cultivated land fornatural disasters and agricultural restructuring. (3)It constructs the largest supply model of the cultivated land reserve resources development, consolidation, reclamation from the quantity and quality based on comprehensive analysis of the impact of land reserve capacity of the various factors, It enhancs the quantity and quality of supply accuracy of arable land for the government to provide a full and reliable data. The results show that it would increase 12470hm2 cultivated land and 94064.78 t food in the largest for reserve resources; It would increase 2079.2hm2 cultivated land and 18405.8 t food in the largest for consolidation; It would increase 56.40 hm2 cultivated land and 391.95 t food in the largest for reclamation.(4) It makes the empirical research using an example of Lulong in Hebei Province, The results show that it would require 46426.30 hm2 cultivated land and 195489.33 t food and provide 56931.21 hm2 cultivated land and 362826.80 t food in 2020 in Lulong County ,it achieve a balance of quantity and quality of the double by through comparison.更多还原