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试析网络舆论的监控

The Analysis for Network Opinion Monitor

【作者】 陈新勇

【导师】 李黎明;

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 , 新闻学, 2010, 硕士

【副题名】系统论视角的控制研究

【摘要】 系统论将研究和分析的对象看作一个有机统一的整体,运用整体思维,自上而下,由总到细,着眼于各要素之间、要素与系统之间的关系,从总体把握系统的功能与作用的研究方法,为我们研究网络舆论提供了一个全新的视角和思路。通过对网络舆论形成过程的研究,本文将网络舆论的形成分为四个阶段,即舆论“潜伏期”、舆论“生发期”、舆论“形成期”、舆论“平息期”。根据系统论的观点,对系统内部的某些环节施加以外力的干预和调控,可以达到对系统进行优化组合的目的,由此,通过对网络舆论系统生成过程的四个坏节分别进行有针对性的控制,则可以达到有效监测网络舆论、净化网络环境的目的。由于网络舆论生成的各个环节的特征和影响因素不尽相同,所以其对舆论生成所产生的影响和发生作用的机制也不相同,由此所施加的干预措施也就有所侧重。文章针对网络舆论生成的四个环节,将网络舆论系统的控制分为四步,即潜伏期的舆论预测、生发期的舆论控制、形成期的舆论引导、平息期的舆论修正。本文主要对舆论预测、控制和引导措施进行了详细探讨,以期为准确把握网络舆论提供可供参考的途径。

【Abstract】 System theory makes the object to be studyed and analyzed as an organic whole.It uses holistic thinking, from top to bottom, from the total-to-fine, focusing on the essential factors and the relationship between elements and systems, its research methods to grasp the system’s function and role as a hole, provides us a new perspective and ideas to study network public Opinion.Through the research of the formation of network public opinion, this article will divide the form of network public opinion into four stages,they are"atency"of public opinion、"germinal period"of public opinion、"formative"of public opinion and"calm period"of public opinion. According to system theory, to impose the intervention and control from the outside on certain links within the system, the system could achieve its purpose of optimization. Thus, by targeted controlling four links in the network public Opinion system-generated process, it can achieve the purpose to monitore network public Opinion and clean network environment effectively.Characteristics and influencing factors in all segments of public opinion formation are different, therefore its influence and mechanism to public opinion formation is not the same, thus the interventions imposed also will be emphasized differently. The four links of network public opinion generated by the article, divides the control of the network public opinion system into four steps:latency prediction of public opinion、control of hair growth on public opinion、guide the formation of public opinion、media amended to calm public opinion. This article discusses in detail on the measures of the media prediction、control and guide, in order to accurately grasp the network public opinion and provide the ways which can be referenced.

【关键词】 网络舆论系统论监控引导
【Key words】 Network public opinionSystem theoryMonitorGuide
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