【作者】 程火生；

【导师】 吕弼顺；

【作者基本信息】 延边大学 ， 人文地理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 可持续发展是文明社会的永恒主题,是现代人类的自觉意识,是当今全球面临的重大难题之一,是人地关系的地域系统研究的核心内容。在1992年联合国环境与发展大会之后,各国际组织、各国政府和学术团体对如何度量可持续发展问题日益关注。本研究以前人研究为基础,以人地关系理论为理论基础,借用区域承载力计算模型为方法,构建图们江地区区域承载力的评价指标体系,结合图们江地区2000—2008年间统计数据定量分析该地区的区域发展,度量和评价该地区的可持续发展能力。并以2008年为例,把图们江地区的区域承载力与吉林省的、全国的进行对比分析,从宏观角度分析图们江地区可持续发展的能力；把图们江地区内各县市的区域承载力进行对比分析,从微观角度分析图们江地区可持续发展的能力。通过图们江地区宏观和微观角度分析,综合研究图们江地区的可持续发展现状及趋势。在确定了论文的理论研究框架以及数据统计分析方法的前提下,首先通过相关专家问卷调查,分析图们江地区实际发展现状,构建了四个层次逐级展开的图们江地区区域承载力评价指标体系。其次通过收集2000—2008年间相关统计数据,定量分析图们江地区区域承载力及承载状况的年际动态变化情况,结果表明,图们江地区一直处于可载状况。并建立动态预测模型,分析图们江地区区域承载力及承载状况的未来变化趋势,发现在2020年该地区将有可能出现超载。再次结合2008年图们江地区的区域承载力、吉林省的和全国的以及图们江地区区内各县市区域承载力的具体情况进行对比分析,综合评价图们江地区的可持续发展能力。通过分析可知,图们江地区发展水平较低,经济发展没达到吉林省和全国的平均水平；图们江地区内部发展不协调,差距较大。这些因素共同影响着图们江地区的可持续发展,导致该地区存在潜在的不可持续发展状态。根据图们江地区区域承载力的分析及当前的区域发展模式,为保证该地区可持续发展的顺利进行,本研究从人口、资源、环境、发展外加政策五个方面提出了可持续发展对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sustainable development is civilized society’s eternal subject, modern humanity’s aware consciousness, one which of significant difficult problems the whole world faces now, and is the research central content in geographical systems of Man-land relationship. After United Nations environment and development congress in 1992, each International organization, various countries’government and the learned society pay attention to how do measure the sustainable development question day by day. This research is foundation on previous studies, taking the person relations theory as the rationale, borrowing the region carrying capacity computation model as the method, constructing the evaluating indicator system of region carrying capacity on Tumen River Area, unifying the statistical data during 2000-2008 years on Tumen River Area, quantitative analyzes this area development, measuring and appraising this local sustainable development ability. Taking 2008 as the example, in the comparison of the Tumen River Area’s region carrying capacity with the Jilin Province’s and the nation’s, analyzes the ability of sustainable development on Tumen River Area from the macroscopic angle. On the contrast of various counties city’s region carrying capacity on Tumen Jiang area, analyzes the ability of sustainable development on Tumen River Area from the microscopic angle. Through analysis from the macroscopic and microscopic angle, synthetically studies the sustainable development present situation and tendency on Tumen River Area.After had determined the paper fundamental research frame and the analysis method of statistical data, first through the related experts’ questionnaire survey, it analyzes the actual development present situation on Tumen River Area, and has constructed the Tumen River Area’s evaluating indicator system which includes progressive launch four levels of the region carrying capacity. Secondly through collecting related the statistical data during 2000-2008 years, quantitatively analyzes the region carrying capacity and the change tendency situation of the load bearing condition with years on Tumen River Area. The results show that there has been in may carry the condition on Tumen River Area. And it establishes the performance forecast model, for analyzing the region carrying capacity and the load bearing condition future change tendency on Tumen River Area, which reveal that it will have the possibility to present the overloading in 2020. Thirdly unifying the special details on the contrastive analysis of the Tumen River Area’s region carrying capacity, the Jilin Province’s and the national’s as well as the various counties city’s region carrying capacity on Tumen River Area in 2008, synthetically evaluates the Tumen River Area’s sustainable development ability. We know through that analysis, the level of development is low on Tumen River Area, and the Tumen River Area’s level of economic development has not achieved Jilin Province’s and the national’s average level. The internal development is uncoordinated on Tumen River Area, with the big disparity. Those factors jointly influence the Tumen River Area’s sustainable development, causing this local existence latent sustainable development condition.According to the analysis of the region carrying capacity and the current regional development model on Tumen River Area, it proposes five sustainable development measures from population, resources, environment, and development additional policy in order to ensure smooth sustainable development on the area.更多还原