【作者】 邹新波；

【导师】 夏卫生；

【作者基本信息】 湖南师范大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 湖南省属于南方地区山洪灾害多发省份之一,其表现形式主要有溪水山洪、滑坡、泥石流等。随着经济的迅速发展,人类征服自然和改造自然活动日益频繁,规模日益增大,遇到的山洪灾害问题也越发突出,日趋严峻。如何构建有效的治理工程体系,使山洪灾害减少到最小程度成为人们广泛关注的问题。要采取进一步防治措施,首先需对现有山洪灾害治理工程体系进行科学评价。从湖南省山洪灾害治理工程体系规划建设现状出发,在系统论、安全系统工程学、模糊数学论、防灾减灾与洪水管理等理论指导下,分析影响山灾治理工程体系安全性的主要因素,从防洪工程治理配置、河道工程整治、水土保持工程建设、生物工程治理四个方面建立安全性评价指标体系,运用物元理论和可拓集合的原理及方法,建立物元评价模型,对湖南省13个山洪灾害易发地(州)市的治理工程体系进行安全性综合评价,得出各地(州)市山洪治理工程体系的评价等级,并绘制了安全性评价等级分区图,探讨了各等级区域中存在的主要问题,以及应采取的改善对策。主要研究结果如下：(1)从构建科学合理、安全有效的山洪灾害治理工程体系出发,提出了开展山洪灾害治理工程体系安全性评价研究的重要意义。在此基础上,论述了国内外有关山洪灾害治理工程体系安全性评价的研究现状,研究的主要内容、方法及技术路线。(2)阐述了开展山洪灾害治理工程体系安全性评价的理论基础,并对山洪灾害治理工程体系的内涵、基本特征和功能、以及安全性评价的主要内容做了介绍,为评价研究工作的进行在理论上提供指导和有力支持。(3)论述了构建指标体系的主要原则,并从影响山洪灾害治理工程体系的防洪工程治理配置、河道工程整治、水土保持工程建设、生物工程治理四个方面着手,采用指标频度统计法、理论分析法、专家咨询法建立了安全性评价指标体系,并对指标内涵进行了解释。(4)介绍了山洪灾害治理工程体系安全性评价的主要方法,分析了各自的优缺点,针对这一多维因素综合体的安全性评价问题,考虑其需根据具体实际情况进行分析这一特殊性,采用层次分析法确定指标权重;在对各评价指标的评价标准进行制定和山洪治理体系安全性评价等级进行划分基础上,建立了多指标综合评价的物元模型。(5)从湖南省山洪灾害治理工程体系建设现状出发,对13个山洪灾害易发地(州)市的山洪灾害治理工程体系安全性进行评价,得出永州、怀化安全水平为Ⅰ级—安全性理想,占山洪易发区的15.4%；郴州、衡阳、湘西、邵阳安全水平为Ⅱ级—安全性较好,占山洪易发区的30.8%；长沙、岳阳、娄底安全水平为Ⅲ级—安全性一般,占山洪易发区的23.1%；张家界、益阳、株洲、湘潭安全水平为Ⅳ级—安全性欠佳,占山洪易发区的30.8%。并绘制安全性评价等级分区图,从图中可以看出,位于湘西、湘西北、湘南山洪灾害较发达地区的地(州)市其治理安全性水平就相对要高,位于湘中、湘东山洪灾害欠发达地区的地(州)市其治理安全性水平相对要低,评价结果与湖南省山洪灾害发生发展的特点基本相符。最后,分析评价结果,指出其存在的问题与不足,提出改善对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hunan province,belongs to the southern region of china,one of torrential flood disaster-prone provinces.its main forms of expression are flash floods,landslides,debris flow,etc.With the rapid development of economic, human increasing frequently of conquer and create nature,growing scale, problems of torrential floods more and more prominent and seriously. How to build an effective system of governance project to minimize flood disasters, becoming a widespread concerning. To take further control measures,first of all,we must make a scientific evaluation for mountain flood control engineering system of existing.From the current situation of construction of torrent disaster control engineering system in hunan province,under the guidance of the theory of system theory,security systems engineering, fuzzy theory,disaster prevention and mitigation, and flood management.analysis on the main safety factors of the torrent disaster control engineering system, establishment index system of safety evaluation from flood control project management configuration,riverway project renovation,soil and water conservation project,governance of biological engineering in four areas. Using matter-element theory and extension set theory, established matter-element evaluation model,for the safety evaluation of 13 prefectures (states) city torrent disaster control engineering system of Hunan Province, get the evaluation grade, and draw a level zoning map of safety evaluation, discussed on the main existing problems in each grade region, and taken measures to improve.The main results are as follows:Firstly,from the system of torrent disaster control engineering of scientific and rational of building, proposed to the importance significance of carry out safety evaluation.On this basis,discussed on the status of torrent disaster control engineering system safety evaluation studies at home and abroad, the main contents of the study,method and technique line.Secondly,expatiate on the theoretical base of carry out torrent disaster control engineering system safety evaluation, systematically introduces its meaning,basic feature,the function, and emphasizes the main contents about the safety evaluation, for the safety evaluation to provide theory guidance and strong support。Thirdly,discussed on the main principles of the index system construction,and from flood control project governance, riverway project renovation, soil and water conservation Project, governance of biological engineering four respects Consider, using indicator frequency analysis method, theoretical analysis, expert consultation to establish the safety evaluation index system,and explains the concept of each index。Fourthly,it introduces the main methods of torrent disaster control engineering system safety evaluation, analyzed the respective merits and faults, aim at this multi-dimensional factors of safety evaluation Problem, consider the need to analyze the specific situation of this special, used AHP to determine weights, at the same time, with it draws up the evaluation criteria of each index and Level of the safety evaluation were divided,on this basis,establishment of a multi-index comprehensive evaluation matter-element model.Lastly,calculated on the evaluation model, the results show that Yongzhou, Huaihua’s safety index is gradeⅠ-Security ideals. accounted for flash floods-prone areas of 15.4%; Chenzhou, Hengyang, xiangxi, Shaoyang safety index is gradeⅡ-better security, accounting for flash floods-prone areas of 30.8%; Changsha, Yueyang, Loudi security levelⅢ-General Safety, accounting for flash floods-prone areas of 23.1%; Zhangj iajie, Yiyang, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan safety index is gradeⅣ-poor security, accounting for flash floods-prone areas of 30.8%. and draw Safety evaluation grade zoning plans, as can be seen from Figure that located in western Hunan, northwestern Hunan, southern Hunan’s prefecture (state) city of Flood disasters more developed areas, security level of governance is relatively higher, located in Central Hunan, Eastern Hunan’s prefecture (state) city of Torrent underdeveloped areas, security level of governance is relatively lower. Evaluation results in line with the characteristics of the development of flood disasters of Hunan. Finally, analysis on the evaluation results, point out the problems and shortcomings, propose to improve measures.更多还原