【作者】 皮明；

【导师】 李晓青；

【作者基本信息】 湖南师范大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用与土地覆被变化研究是全球变化研究的重点内容之一,而目前为止的大部分研究都是建立在较大空间范围的地区,采用遥感图像进行土地利用与土地覆被变化研究。本文选取县级市湘乡市市域为研究区域,以土地利用现状数据库为基础,研究湘乡市的土地利用覆被变化。选择较小空间范围的典型区域,采用土地利用现状数据库进行土地覆被的变化研究,不仅能深入地分析土地覆被变化的时空规律和驱动力,而且与现实的土地利用紧密相连,能更有效的为土地利用决策提供参考。本研究在广泛收集湘乡市各种日然、社会和经济资料的基础上,以湘乡市土地覆盖变化、驱动因子和变化趋势为研究对象,以2003和2008年两个时期的土地利用现状数据库为主要数据来源,在对数据库数据进行处理的基础上,应用统计软件和GIS技术,并结合自然、社会、经济统计数据,对湘乡市土地利用与覆被变化进行了深入研究分析,并根据分析的结果对湘乡市2013和2018年的土地利用空间格局进行预测。主要研究湘乡市土地利用与土地覆被类型现状、空间变化、时空变化的主驱动因子,并对今后5年和10年的土地利用空间格局进行预测。研究内容包括：1.以土地利用程度、土地利用动态度变化等为指标,分析研究湘乡市不同时段的各种土地覆被类型的变化数量、变化速率和转移情况,揭示湘乡市土地覆被的时空演变特征。2.以典型相关分析模型为主,以定性分析方法为辅,分析研究气候、地形地貌、人口、经济等因素对土地利用覆被变化的影响,探寻湘乡市土地利用覆被类型变化的自然驱动因子和社会经济驱动因子,并总结最主要的驱动因子。3.利用马尔科夫模型和细胞自动机(简称CA)模型相综合,研究湘乡市土地利用覆被变化的过程,并对未来土地利用的空间格局进行模拟。表明对较小空间范围的典型地区的进行土地覆被空间动态预测,不仅可以直观地为当地的土地利用提供决策支持,而且在土地利用覆被研究的新领域和新方法上有重要的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land Use and Land Cover Change is one of the key contents in Global Change Research, but most of the research is based on a large spatial extent area so far, and using remote sensing images to discuss land use and land cover change. This article selected a county-level city-Xiangxiang City as the study area, based on land use database to research land use cover change in Xiangxiang. Select a small spatial extent of the typical regions and use land cover database to study its land use Change, not only we can analysis the land cover change in space-time law and driving force more in-depth, But also closely linked to the actual land use to make decision-making of land use more effectively. In this study, based on Xiangxiang’s extensive collection of natural, social and economic data, Take land cover change, driving factors and trends in Xiangxiang as the research object, use and deal the land use database in 2003 and 2008 as the main source of data, based on the application of statistical software and GIS technology, combined with the natural, social, economic statistics, to research and analysis the Xiangxiang’s land use and cover changes in-depth, use the results of the analysis to predict Xiangxiang’s the spatial pattern of land use in future at last.The major research of paper is the main driving factor of land use and land cover’s type situation, spatial variation, spatial and temporal changes, then predict the spatial pattern of land use in the next 5 years and 10 years. The study includes:1. Take the extent of land use, land-use dynamics of change etc as an index, to analysis the various land cover changes in type number, change and transfer rate of Xiangxiang in different times, then reveal the land cover’s spatial and temporal characteristics.2. Canonical correlation analysis of model-based, supplemented by qualitative analysis, analysis the affect of climate, topography, population, economy and other factors on land use cover change, explore the natural and socio-economic driving factors driving of land use cover change, and summarize the most important driving factors.3. Composite the Markov mode and Cellular Automata mode to research the process of land use cover change land in Xiangxiang, and simulate the future spatial pattern of land use. Shows forecasting spatial dynamics of land cover in a small typical area. Not only can support the local land use more directly, but also important to new research areas and new methods in land use and land cover change.更多还原