【作者】 井国龙；

【导师】 于雷；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着公共交通在城市交通系统中的作用越发重要,公交运营部门和公众对于公共交通服务水平也越来越关注。以往对于公交服务水平的研究多从宏观层面出发,评价指标体系的建立方法单一,选取的多数指标难以量化,从而导致整体研究的实用性不强。因此,本文以多源公交运行数据为基础,开展针对公交运营服务水平的定量评价方法研究,从公交线路站点、公交线路区段、公交线路整体三个方面分层次的对公交服务水平进行评价,层层递进,相互关联,共同反映公交服务水平的高低。首先,在公交线路站点层面,选取线路站点停站时间、乘客登量、乘客降量、服务线路数、登降量之差等五个因素作为解释变量,乘客对站点服务水平的人为感受作为反应变量,建立基于累积Logistic回归的公交线路站点服务水平评价模型。其次,在公交线路区段层面,综合考虑站点服务水平和路段服务水平。其中,采用基于累积Logistic回归的公交线路站点服务水平评价模型获得站点服务水平：以公交车辆满载率、区段内车辆平均速度作为自变量,采用专家打分法建立路段服务水平的加权模型。继而,选取时间变量作为权重,建立基于站点服务水平和路段服务水平的公交线路区段服务水平加权评价模型。再次,在公交线路层面,选取公交线路区段服务水平作为自变量,通过综合加权法,选取反映乘客需求的区段客流旅行时间PHT (Passenger-Hours Traveled)指标作为权重,对组成公交线路的区段进行加权,建立基于乘客需求的公交线路服务水平评价模型。最后,选取北京市部分常规公交线路进行实例应用研究。利用已建立的分层次常规公交服务水平评价模型,分别计算早高峰、平峰、晚高峰时段的常规公交服务水平,进行对比评价,对模型的实际应用进行详细分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasingly important role that the public transportation plays in the urban transportation system, the public transportation services have received the increased attention from both transit operational departments and the general public. Most of the existing studies on the public transportation services have been conducted at the macro level, the method in establishing the evaluation index system has been simple, and most of the selected indicators have been difficult to be quantified, resulting in a lack of practicality in the studies. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the quantitative study on the evaluation method of the public transportation service level based on the multi-source bus operational data. It evaluates the service levels of the public transportation from three levels, the bus stop, the bus line section, and the whole bus line, which are stratified, progressive, inter-correlated, and jointly reflect the level of bus services.First, at the stop level of bus lines, five factors are selected as the explanatory variables, including dwelling times at stops of bus line, volume of boarding passengers, volume of alighting passengers, number of bus lines serviced, and difference between boarding and alighting passengers, the feeling of passengers about the level of service at the stop is selected as the response variable. Then, the service evaluation model at the stop level is established based on the cumulative logistic regression.Then, at the segment level of bus lines, the service levels both at the stop and in the road section are taken into the consideration. The service level at the stop is calculated by the proposed evaluation model based on the cumulative logistic regression. For the service level in the section, the thesis selects the bus occupancy rate and the average vehicle speed in the section as the independent variables to build the calculation model using the expert evaluation survey. Thereby, the weighted service evaluation model in the segment level is established using the time as the weight, based on the service level at the stop and the service level in the section.Afterward, at the level of the whole bus line, by using the comprehensive evaluation method, the study chooses the service levels of all segments as independent variables and the Passenger-Hours Traveled (PHT) index as the weights to establish the bus line service level evaluation model based on the demand of the transit passengers.Finally, some regular bus lines in Beijing are selected in a case study with the established models. The service levels in the morning peak hours, non-peak hours, and evening peak hours are calculated by the corresponding models established in the thesis. The results are then comparatively analyzed to validate the practical application of the models.更多还原