【作者】 王铎；

【导师】 荣莉莉；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 系统工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 进入21世纪以来,各种突发事件频发,突发事件引起的连锁反应造成的危害往往超过单一突发事件所造成的危害。因此,开展针对突发事件连锁反应的研究对于有效的降低突发事件的损失、避免突发事件的扩大化具有重要意义。目前国内外对突发事件连锁反应的研究主要集中在单一突发事件在网络上的蔓延和多种突发事件构成的灾害链和网,这些都是针对已有的连锁反应,而对那些没有发生过,但在一定的条件下有可能发生的连锁反应研究较少。因此,本文以四大类突发事件为研究对象,构建网络模型描述可能构成的突发事件连锁反应,并分析连锁反应的可能性,这样才能实现突发事件的宏观预警。建立突发事件网络模型,最重要的是研究构成研究两个突发事件之间的关系,本文引入关联度的概念描述突发事之间的关系。本文首先归纳现有对突发事件连锁反应的研究,分析突发事件连锁反应的模式；基于对模式的分析提出构建突发事件连锁反应网络模型的方法,并形式化描述该网络模型；设计出判断突发事件之间构成连锁反应的关联度算法,并从共现分析的角度分析关联度的计算；最后,进行实证研究实现网络模型与算法：选取突发事件,进行共现分析,得到突发事件之间的关联度和突发事件关系网,找到可能构成连锁反应的突发事件,验证本文所提出的建网方法和关联度算法是合理的。本文的创新工作在于,提出了突发事件网络模型的构建方法,设计关联度算法判断连锁反应的可能性,丰富了突发事件连锁反应的相关理论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since entering the 21st century, all kinds of emergency events happen frequently. The damage caused by chain reaction of emergency events is far more than that caused by a single emergency event. Therefore, to carry out the research on emergency chain reaction is of great significance for us to effectively reduce the loss of emergencies and to avoid spreading of emergencies.Most of the current studies focus on the spread of a single emergency event and the chain and network composed of a variety of emergency events. These are the studies of emergency chain reactions which have occurred. However, there is few studies on the chain reactions which did not ever happen but may happen in some environment. Therefore, take four emergencies as the research object, a network model to describe the possible chain reaction of emergency events is proposed, and the possibility of two emergency events forming a chain reaction is analyzed in this paper, so as to achieve macro-emergency warning.To model network, it is the most important to study the relationship between two emergencies which form chain reaction. This paper introduces the concept of correlation to describe the relationship between emergencies. This paper is organized as follows:Firstly, the existing research on emergency chain reaction is summarized, and the chain mode of emergency chain reaction is analyzed. And then the method of building a network model of emergency chain reaction and its formal description is proposed; an algorithm to judge the possibility of chain reaction is designed. From the perspective of co-occurrence analysis, the calculation of correlation is analyzed. Finally, the empirical study is present:Select emergencies, do co-occurrence analysis, and get the correlation and network of emergency events. The chain reaction network of emergency events is built, and effective conclusions are reached, finding the possible chain reaction of emergency events. Thus verify the proposed network model and the correlation algorithm is reasonable.The innovation of this paper is the emergency chain reaction network model and the correlation algorithm. This enriches the related theories of emergency chain reaction.更多还原