【作者】 傅晓阳；

【导师】 娄岩；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着现代工业的飞速发展,我国城市水环境的污染越来越严重,而且城市污水处理厂的吨水耗电量远远高于发达国家,运行管理人员又多,运行管理和自动控制与国外相比存在较大的差距;最重要的是这不符合科学发展观的要求。污水处理过程具有多变量、非线性、时变性与随机性的特点,其控制过程十分复杂,采用传统的控制方法难以实现污水处理的实时控制,智能控制可以解决用传统方法难以解决的复杂系统的控制问题。然而,城市污水处理智能控制技术作为一项高新技术,具有技术发展和商业化前景不确定的特点,为投资决策带来很大的困难,因此,研究该技术的应用前景是至关重要的。基于此,本文首先分析了城市污水处理智能控制技术国内外研究现状,提出采用技术成熟度分析该技术的应用前景,并分析了技术成熟度的国内外研究现状以及不足,采用主客观相结合的方法对其进行研究。然后,以城市污水处理智能控制技术为例,对其成熟度进行具体分析。分为两部分:从客观角度对城市污水处理智能控制技术的成熟度进行分析,采用基于文献计量学的方法,包括文献类型变换法、Fisher–Pry模型法和关键词变换法确定该技术的成熟度;从主观角度对城市污水处理智能控制技术的成熟度进行分析,采用基于专家判断的结构方程模型,对评价指标体系进行优化,进一步完善技术成熟度的确定。基于以上分析,我国城市污水处理智能控制技术还未到达成熟,技术成熟度处于复苏期。最后,针对城市污水处理智能控制技术的技术成熟度处于复苏期,制定相应的对策,完善了该技术的应用前景研究,为投资决策提供参考,也为技术成熟度的研究和高新技术应用前景的研究提供了一种思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of modern industry, urban water environmental pollution in China is getting worse, tons of water consumption in municipal wastewater treatment plants are much higher than developed countries, operating managers are too more, and there is a big gap of operation management and automatic control from foreign countries, the most important is that this does not meet the requirements of the scientific development concept. Since wastewater treatment process has the characteristics of multivariable, nonlinear, time-varying stochastic, and its control is complex. It is difficult to achieve real-time control of wastewater treatment with the traditional methods. Intelligent control can be used to solve control problems in the complex system, which is difficult to resolve by traditional methods. However, intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment as a high-tech, with the uncertain characteristics of technology development and commercialization prospects, it brings great difficulties for the investment decisions. Therefore, it is essential to study the prospects of technology.Based on this, this paper analyzes the research status on intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment, make use of technology maturity to analyze the technology’s prospects, as well as the research status and the lack of technology maturity, then proposes the research method of combination with objective and subjective.Then, this paper takes intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment as an example, makes a concrete analysis of their maturity. There are two parts: (1) from an objective point, there are three methods based on bibliometric analysis, including document type transformation, key words transformation and Fisher-Pry model method; (2) from a subjective point, using structural equation model based on expert judgments to optimize the evaluation index system, to further improve the determination of technology maturity. Based on the above analysis, intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment does not reach maturity, which is in the stage of technical maturity recovery.Finally, for intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment being in the stage of technical maturity recovery, this paper makes the development countermeasures, further complete the research of technology prospect, which provide a reference for investment decisions, but also provides a new method for the determination of technology maturity and the research of high-tech prospects.更多还原